NBA Player Props and Best Bets: Fade Cade, Kahwi and Take This Playoff SGP

There’s another day of NBA playoff action, which means another day to share my best player props for Thursday’s games.

The Minnesota Timberwolves eliminated the Los Angeles Lakers in five games on Wednesday, while the Houston Rockets extended their series against the Golden State Warriors to a sixth game in the Bay Area.

Thursday’s slate opens with the New York Knicks visiting the Detroit Pistons and will conclude with the Denver Nuggets taking a 3-2 lead on the road against the Los Angeles Clippers.

Read our full predictions for these two games:

• Knicks vs Pistons Prediction and Odds

• Nuggets vs Clippers Prediction and Odds

Here are my top five NBA player props for the Thursday playoffs.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, May 1

OG Anunoby Over 4.5 Rebounds

Anunoby had eight rebounds in Game 5 and went over in three of five games in this series, and I don’t believe that there’s any reason other than coincidence that his two unders were on the road. He also averaged 41.4 minutes per game in the series and should play a ton of minutes in a potential closeout game.

Cade Cunningham has preferred to get Anunoby off of him with a switch, an approach I expect him to continue in Game 6 due to Anunoby’s strengths as an on-ball defender. If he’s off the ball, that means he’ll be in more positions to rebound the ball, something he’s proven he’s more than capable of.

Jalen Duren Over 2.5 Assists

One of the best parts of this series has quietly been watching Duren dissect the Knicks’ backside defense and playmaking in the short roll. He had six assists in Game 5, four in Game 4, and went over in four of five games and three straight.

Duren’s successful playmaking has come despite the Knicks allowing the second-fewest assists per game. That’s a testament to him making the right reads and finding the open man, but also to Cunningham and pick-and-roll ball-handlers for getting him the ball in advantageous positions, or the “pre-assist.”

Cade Cunningham Under 1.5 Threes

Speaking of Cunningham, the Pistons’ star only made one three in his last game and went under in four of five games in the series. He’s still shooting 25 percent from deep on just four attempts per game as the Knicks have prioritized taking away the three ball, holding the Pistons to the second-fewest makes and fourth-fewest attempts in the playoffs per game.

The Knicks know that Cunningham is the most dangerous creator the Pistons have, and he also isn’t much of a pull-up three-point jump-shooter. That’s why the Knicks defenders have been under strict instruction to play him tight on the perimeter and prevent him from getting a head of steam and is why I like him to go under yet again.

Kawhi Leonard Under 1.5 Threes

Same prop, a different player, and a different proposition. Leonard is a much more willing and efficient three-point shooter than Cunningham, but he went under this line in his last game and only shot 1-4 from deep. He also went under twice in two of five games, and for this value, I’m definitely interested.

The Nuggets have given a much better defensive effort in this series than they did really at any point during the regular season. Leonard shot 44 percent from range, but he only took 5.0 attempts per game and is giving himself a very fine margin for error if he wants to cash the over again.

Aaron Gordon Over 5.5 Rebounds

Gordon went under for the first time in this entire series in Game 5, which he finished with just four rebounds in 37 minutes. He’s been a man among boys on the offensive glass, racking up 3.4 offensive rebounds per game against one of the league’s best rebounding teams and centers (Ivica Zubac). 

Gordon, for whatever reason, averaged 0.7 more rebounds per game on the road than he did at home and went over with games of seven and six rebounds on the road in this series. The Clippers 47.7 rebound percentage is 12th in the playoffs and well below their 51.2 percent mark for the season overall, which gives Gordon a path to an over.

NBA Same-Game Parlay (+251) at FanDuel

-Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Clippers (-6.5)

• Nikola Jokic 25+ points: Went over in three of five games in the series and will be counted on to step up on the road in a potential closeout game,

• Jamal Murray under 20.5 points: There would be nothing more like Murray than going under after he dropped 43 points in his last game, not to mention I expect heightened defensive intensity from a terrific defensive team.

• Norman Powell 2+ threes: Made at least two threes in four of five games and shot 43.8 percent from three at home in this series.

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