NBA Player Props Today: Spurs vs. Thunder Game 5

The Western Conference Finals will take a pivotal turn in Game 5 today, and I have my best player prop picks for the Spurs vs. Thunder showdown.

Victor Wembanyama and company breezed past the Oklahoma City Thunder their last time on the floor, winning by 21 points and holding their opponent to 33 percent shooting from the field. Both teams are now 1-1 at home, on the road, as favorites, and as underdogs in the series.

The winner of Game 5 in a series tied 2-2 ends up winning the series more than 82 percent of the time in the NBA. Because of these stakes, tonight’s impending showdown between the two best teams in the West will cause a massive shift in the latest NBA Western Conference odds as it effectively decides which team will advance to compete for a championship.

Here are my top Game 5 Spurs vs. Thunder player prop picks and bets today for Tuesday, May 26. 

Best NBA Player Prop Bets for Tuesday, May 26

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Victor Wembanyama Over 26.5 Points (-108) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Wemby is one missed free throw away from averaging 30 points, 13 rebounds, four assists, and three blocks per game on 53/43/91 shooting splits. His remarkable efficiency also doesn’t seem to be a fluke, as he’s gotten nothing but high-quality looks almost throughout the entire series.

The 7-foot-4 Frenchman took 22 shots in his last game and 25 in the opener, the first game in OKC. His team needs him to be the engine that drives their offense, and he has shown the level of aggression needed to show up for his teammates on the road in a near-must-win environment.

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Julian Champagnie Over 8.5 Points (-122) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The general belief in the NBA is that role players shoot the ball better on their home court than they do on the road. What makes Game 5 an interesting prospect for the San Antonio Spurs is that all of their players not named Wembanyama or Devin Vassell have not shot the ball well at all, Champagnie being the defining example of that.

After shooting 43.7 percent from the floor and 38.1 percent from three during the regular season, the fourth-year pro’s numbers tumbled to 29.7 percent from the field and 19.4 percent from beyond the arc in this series. A natural regression to the mean, combined with his shot volume (7.8 threes attempted per game in this series), would put him in a great position to cash the over.

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Chet Holmgren Under 0.5 Threes (+178) at FanDuel Sportsbook

While this prop might not have the highest likelihood in the world, it could be worth a gamble, given the value. Holmgren split the over/under on this line in the conference finals and looks totally timid, if not afraid to shoot the ball at different times, only taking eight shots per game in the ongoing series.

Holmgren made 0.8 threes per game on 33.3 percent shooting and was 0-1 from downtown the last time he was on the court. The Spurs have done a great job of closing out to him whenever possible, and OKC’s decision to lean into offensive over defensive personnel has given Holmgren fewer shots and fewer chances to pop up in advantageous scoring positions.

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De’Aaron Fox Under 3.5 Rebounds (+102) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Fox had a calming effect on the Spurs’ offense in Game 4, as despite shooting 38.5 percent from the field on two bad ankles, his zero turnovers kept the offense in rhythm. He snatched 10 rebounds in the process and hit the over in both of his conference finals appearances, although I think that will come to an end.

The Thunder almost inevitably won’t shoot the ball as poorly as they did in Game 4, which would lead to fewer possible rebounds. He also looks timid when landing after jumping due to his ankles, which effectively means that he won’t be in many, if any, scraps for rebounds under the basket.

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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 7.5 Assists (-154) at FanDuel Sportsbook

While the Spurs played Gilgeous-Alexander more straight-up than they had previously during Game 4, they still showed him help and left OKC shooters open at times. The back-to-back MVP also finished with seven assists without playing in the fourth quarter and despite his team’s horrific shooting performance.

With a game back on their home court approaching, I expect the Thunder to shoot the ball better collectively. That should result in more assists for Gilgeous-Alexander, who has struggled to lead the offense as a scorer due to the Spurs’ smothering defense.

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