NBA Player Props Today: Spurs vs. Thunder Game 6

The Western Conference Finals have reached elimination status, and I have my player prop picks today ready to go for Thunder vs. Spurs Game Six.

The Oklahoma City Thunder won a pivotal Game Five on their home court, giving them a 3-2 series advantage. Across all of NBA playoff history, teams that take Game Five in a series tied 2-2 win the whole series more than 82 percent of the time, a historic trend heavily reflected in the current NBA Western Conference Finals Odds.

A primary goal of the Spurs will be to get Victor Wembanyama going, after he only shot 4-15 from the field and scored 20 points during Tuesday’s meeting.

These are my best Game Six Thunder vs. Spurs NBA player prop picks and bets today for Thursday, May 28.

Best NBA Player Prop Bets for Thursday, May 28

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Victor Wembanyama Under 12.5 Rebounds (-106) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Thunder have effectively had Isaiah Hartenstein face-guarding Wembanyama, sometimes even when the Thunder are on offense. That resulted in a number of scrums and jamming of body parts under the rim and left Wemby as more of a blockout player than a rebounder.

The 7-foot-4 Frenchman began the series with 24 and 17 rebounds, but he was held to four, eight, and six in the three following games. I believe this trend will continue since Hartenstein has effectively taken Wemby out of his rhythm in multiple ways, and the Thunder would be silly to change his approach.

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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 8.5 Assists (-158) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Gilgeous-Alexander, the back-to-back league MVP, hit the over in every game except for Game Four — a historically poor shooting night for the Thunder — in this series. However, the Spurs showed that they were willing to play him more straight-up on defense, which expanded his reign but reduced the freedom of his teammates.

Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, and others have done a nice job on Gilgeous-Alexander in the series, holding him to 38.8 percent shooting. He got to the free-throw line a whopping 17 times in the last game, but the important part is that he was looking to shoot the ball more times than not, and the Thunder’s supporting cast shot the ball horribly the last time they were in San Antonio.

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Stephon Castle Under 5.5 Rebounds (-138) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Castle cashed the under in all but one game in this series, and that was Game 1. His assignment on Gilgeous-Alexander often leaves him far away from the basket when Thunder shots go up, putting him out of range for possible rebounds.

Guarding Gilgeous-Alexander requires, among many things, patience, and Castle often finishes plays with his hand up, his feet down, and his back turned to the basket. His defensive responsibility and recent trends suggest he will continue to go under this line.

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Jared McCain Under 1.5 Assists (-102) at FanDuel Sportsbook

McCain was added to the Thunder’s starting lineup in place of Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell to provide scoring and nothing else. He proved that by logging one total assist across his last three games, but having games of 21 and 19 field goal attempts during that stretch.

With how heavily the Thunder like to rotate their lineup, there’s a world in which McCain loses minutes to Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, or another player on the lower end of the bench rotation. The Thunder also need to prove they can shoot the ball well in San Antonio, given what happened during their last visit to the south of Texas.

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Dylan Harper Over 3.5 Rebounds (-120) at FanDuel Sportsbook

De’Aaron Fox warmed up in Game Five, although he is still noticeably hindered by his ankle problems. Harper, a rookie, got 25 minutes and has seen consistent action in the series, going over this line in three of five games (including two straight).

The second-overall pick in the draft has been energetic, active, and willing to fight for missed shots on the glass. For the final time, the Thunder’s recent poor shooting the last time they were on the road would suggest there will be more missed shots and more rebounding opportunities tonight, and I’ll be backing Harper.

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