The final series of the basketball season begins today as the New York Knicks visit the San Antonio Spurs, and I have my top player prop picks and bets for the matchup.
The Spurs entered the Finals stage after eliminating the defending-champion Oklahoma City Thunder in seven games. They also overcame a strong precedent, as just about 18 percent of teams down 3-2 in a best-of-seven have recovered and been able to win, just like the Spurs did, closing out a Game 7 on the road.
On the other side of the bracket, the Knicks’ last time on the court saw them set an NBA Playoff record for point differential in a 10-game stretch. They won two of three regular-season matchups against the Spurs, but are still underdogs in Game 1 and in the series as a whole.
As the action returns to the hardwood for a final time this season, here is a look at the latest NBA Championship odds and my top Knicks vs. Spurs player props today for Game 1 on Wednesday, June 3.
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| Best NBA Player Props Today | FanDuel Odds | Kalshi to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Hart Under 1.5 Threes | +140 | New York Knicks 37% |
| Julian Champagnie Over 1.5 Assists | +126 | San Antonio Spurs 64% |
| Victor Wembanyama Over 11.5 Rebounds | -114 | San Antonio Spurs 64% |
| Jalen Brunson Over 24.5 Points | -120 | New York Knicks 37% |
| Dylan Harper Over 10.5 Points | -108 | San Antonio Spurs 64% |
| Odds and market prices are accurate as of the time of publishing and subject to change before the event. | ||
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When I opened up the FanDuel menu, I fully expected to find myself taking the over on Hart. The Spurs could easily deploy a defensive strategy that involves Victor Wembanyama defending Hart but sagging off of him, similar to how he handled Alex Caruso in the last series, leaving Hart with opportunities for open threes.
That said, taking Hart to make two threes for -192 odds just isn’t all that appealing, especially considering he went under in 10 of 14 playoff games and shot 30.3 percent from deep during that time. He also went under in both of his previous matchups with the Spurs, creating sneaky value on the under.
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Champagnie averaged 1.5 assists per game and went under this line in all three matchups with the Knicks, although he went over in four of seven games against the Thunder in the last series. He also gets to start the series on his home floor after an excellent Game 7 performance to close the Western Conference Finals.
Assuming the Knicks start OG Anunoby on Wemby, Karl-Anthony Towns almost has to guard Champagnie. That spells trouble on the perimeter and will force unwanted switches or help defense, and I believe that Champagnie will take advantage and will connect with his teammates at least a couple of times.
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Wemby went under this line in five straight games to close the series against the Thunder after beginning with 24 and 17 rebounds. The issue is that the Knicks don’t have someone like Isaiah Hartenstein, who they can play heavy minutes without disrupting the flow of their offense, and who will follow Wemby all over the court pushing him around and locking him up under the basket to prevent him from getting on the glass.
The young Frenchman went over in two of three previous matchups with the Knicks and will play heavy minutes in this series. Karl-Anthony Towns is strong on the glass, but the lack of a second seven-footer will make Wemby’s job easier than it was in the last series.
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Stephon Castle held Jalen Brunson to 28.7 percent field goal shooting in 38 possessions as his primary defender. However, Brunson went over in two of three matchups with the Spurs, taking 16, 24, and 27 shots in those games.
Assuming Brunson gets a hefty shot diet, as he normally does, the volume should carry him over this number more than the efficiency. He went over in nine of 14 playoff games and had over a week of rest to recharge and prepare for tonight’s game.
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De’Aaron Fox’s limited mobility, due to his injured ankles, spells trouble for the Spurs, since the Knicks won’t have to hide Brunson on someone else on defense. I believe the natural counter is to get more playing time for Harper, who played 27 minutes in Game 7 and is firmly in the trust of coach Mitch Johnson.
The rookie second-overall pick scored 18 and 12 points in his two most recent games and had 21 points in the NBA Cup Final. The Knicks are great at closing driving lanes but don’t have great rim protection, and Harper is excellent at getting to and finishing inside the restricted area.
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