There are three NBA playoff series standing at 3-2 on Thursday, and I’m here to reveal my best player prop picks for all of them.
Paolo Banchero and Cade Cunningham made history as the second duo to both score at least 45 points in the same game in playoff history, joining Donovan Mitchell and Jamal Murray, as the Pistons clawed back to force a Game Six. Jabari Smith Jr. also led the way for the Houston Rockets, who are now heading home for Game Six after starting down 0-3 in their series with the Los Angeles Lakers.
Today’s three-game lineup includes the New York Knicks against the Atlanta Hawks, the Philadelphia 76ers hosting the Boston Celtics, and the Denver Nuggets battling the Minnesota Timberwolves.
As these thrilling series push closer to their dramatic conclusions, their outcomes are sure to cause massive shifts in the latest NBA Championship odds and predictions.
Here are my top player prop picks and bets for the NBA Playoffs on Thursday, April 30.
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| Best NBA Player Props Today | FanDuel | Kalshi to Win |
|---|---|---|
| OG Anunoby Over 16.5 Points | +100 | New York Knicks 58% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker Under 16.5 Points | +100 | Atlanta Hawks 44% |
| VJ Edgecombe Over 11.5 Points | -136 | Philadelphia 76ers 33% |
| Nikola Jokic Under 10.5 Assists | -148 | Denver Nuggets 68% |
| Jaden McDaniels Over 4.5 Rebounds | -136 | Minnesota Timberwolves 33% |
| Odds and market prices are accurate as of the time of publishing and subject to change before the event. | ||
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I haven’t been impressed by the job the Atlanta Hawks have done on Anunoby, who not only shot the ball absurdly well in the series, but has also found space roaming the baseline around the dunker spot. He went over in three straight and in four of five in this series after averaging 16.7 points per game during the regular season.
The Knicks have a chance to close out the Hawks on the road, and Anunoby should be allowed to play heavy minutes. The Hawks have strong defensive pieces but haven’t actually been great on defense, and Anunoby seems to come up clutch for his team in big moments.
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Alexander-Walker, the newly-crowned Most Improved Player, averaged 20.8 points on 15.3 shots per game during the regular season. He’s down to 14.2 points on 12.6 shots in the playoffs, having shot 38.1 percent from the field and taken 12 or fewer shots in four straight contests.
The Hawks’ starting guard is being tasked with hefty defensive responsibilities and is therefore taking fewer shots than he’s accustomed to. He has also been highly efficient from three, even if he hasn’t been on the mark from two, and a regression in that could really put him in danger of going under this line.
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I get it, Edgecombe doesn’t take many shots when Embiid is on the floor… but this is the same player who scored 30 points in Game 2 and averaged 16.0 points per game during the regular season. His three-game streak of unders won’t deter me from betting his over.
This is a possible closeout series, and Edgecombe should be on the floor for close to or more than 40 minutes tonight. He can score at all three levels and isn’t afraid of the moment, and I’d hate to bite my fingernails hoping he doesn’t make four or five shots in an entire game.
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The Nuggets might come back from a 3-1 deficit, but it won’t be as impressive as the feat might suggest, given that Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo are out. Jokic went for 27 points, 16 assists, and 12 rebounds in the first full game without either one of them, but I’m banking on regression and an inspired defensive effort by the Wolves.
Jokic went under in three of five games in this series, while Minnesota, particularly Rudy Gobert, has been utterly excellent on defense. The Nuggets’ role players aren’t knocking down shots, and the slow pace of the game that’s setting up tonight should lead to fewer opportunities for assists in the first place.
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McDaniels had eight, two, 10, eight, and three rebounds in five games in this series—pretty inconsistent. However, I love him tonight because of his general disdain for the Nuggets, and because he often takes it upon himself to elevate his game when Edwards isn’t available.
The 25-year-old has the size at six-foot-nine, and he should play close to 40 minutes if he can stay out of foul trouble. It’s all hands on deck for the Timberwolves, and I expect an experienced McDaniels to answer the call.
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