Alabama vs. Oklahoma Prediction, Odds & Picks: Will Tide’s Revenge Come in CFP First Round?

• Oklahoma beat Alabama by two points in the middle of the regular season

• OU QB John Mateer only had 138 passing yards during the previous matchup

• Ty Simpson has struggled when facing pressure, which is a specialty of the OU defense

The College Football Playoff will begin its journey to producing the national champion on Friday when the No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide pay a visit to the No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners.

The SEC showdown is a rematch of a Nov. 15 regular-season matchup, one that the Sooners came out on top of, 23-21. They gained nearly 200 yards less of total offense, but they finished +3 in the turnover margin, one of those being an 87-yard pick-six courtesy of Eli Bowen off of Ty Simpson.

The winner of Friday’s opening matchup will advance to take on the Big Ten champions and number-one team in the country, Indiana.

Here’s my preview, prediction, and best bet for the Alabama vs. Oklahoma CFP extravaganza.

Alabama vs. Oklahoma Odds

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Alabama vs. Oklahoma: My Pick

• My pick: Alabama ML (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

I respect the Oklahoma defense, but I have immense trust in DeBoer in marquee matchups. I also don’t think the Sooners’ method of victory a month ago is sustainable, so as long as Bama doesn’t finish -3 in turnovers, I love their chances of winning this game.

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Alabama vs. Oklahoma Prediction

Oklahoma came out on top when these teams met just over a month ago, but that doesn’t guarantee they will do the same again. They’ll have the advantage of being in front of their home fans, whereas they previously won in Tuscaloosa, but they were only 3-2 at home against the conference. 

Alabama Crimson Tide Preview

Alabama has the reputation of being an explosive offense, thanks to Kalen DeBoer, Ty Simpson, a projected first-round left tackle, and an array of impressive weapons.

While they’re far from the worst team in the bracket, they’re only 12th in national EPA per play – below their general esteem. They also averaged just 17 points per game in their last four matchups against SEC opponents, including 21 against OU and seven against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, their last appearance on the field.

One of the biggest reasons for this stall is the regression of Ty Simpson, who has not played well when facing sustained pressure. Running back Jam Miller is expected to return from an injury, but a hampered version of the bruiser would place a heavy burden on Simpson’s shoulders.

Alabama’s defense, conversely, is better than many believe. They ranked ninth in EPA allowed per play and kept Oklahoma to 212 total yards (4.1 yards per play) when they met five weekends ago. 

That said, losing LT Overton is huge. The 6-foot-5 defensive end is second in sacks (four) and does a great job of setting the edge against the run with his large frame.

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Oklahoma Sooners Preview

Brent Venables’ defense has brought pain and misery to many different opponents. They finished the year by allowing 21 points to Bama, six to Missouri, and 13 to LSU, helping them finish the year third in defensive EPA per play. They also generated the second-most pressure per dropback and ranked sixth in points allowed per play, which is even more impressive than it sounds, considering their schedule.  

Oklahoma’s defense isn’t worth worrying about. Their offense? That’s a different story…

The Sooners were only 47th in offensive EPA per play and 99th in yards per play (5.0). Quarterback John Mateer finished the season by throwing for 173 or fewer yards in four of six games, and in the ones where he beat that line, he had three touchdowns and three interceptions.

Mateer was also unimpactful when he faced the Bama defense. He finished 15/23 with 138 passing yards, 23 rushing yards, and a touchdown, while the offense went 3-13 (23.1 percent) on third down. That was characteristic of the team, which finished 73rd in third-down conversion percentage (38.5 percent).

A win in this game will likely have to come on the back of the defense. However, Mateer returning to his early-season Heisman form would go a long way to booking the Sooners’ ticket into the next round.

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Alabama vs. Oklahoma Best Promos and Sportsbooks

All of the best online sportsbooks are offering a variety of betting markets for the Alabama vs. Oklahoma College Football Playoff showdown.

While the odds might be similar, each sportsbook will have its differences. Cross-reference across multiple sportsbooks to find the best odds for your bet of choice.

Find more info in our table below.

*21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This promotional offer is not available in DC, MS, NY, NV, ON, or PR.

Alabama vs. Oklahoma Injury Report

Alabama

• DB Kameron Howard – Out

• LB Jah-Marien Latham – Out

• DB Dre Kirkpatrick Jr. – Out (suspension)

• EDGE LT Overton – Out

• RB Kevin Riley – Out

• DL Jeremiah Beaman – Out

• TE Josh Cuevas – Questionable (lower leg)

• TE Danny Lewis Jr. – Questionable

Oklahoma

• DB Gentry Williams – Out (shoulder)

• DB Kendel Dolby – Out

• DB Jeremiah Newcombe – Out

• DL Troy Everett – Out

• OL Jake Maikkula – Questionable

• RB Jovantae Barnes – Probable

How to Watch Alabama vs. Oklahoma

• When: Dec. 19, 8:00 p.m. ET

• Where: Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)

• How to Watch: ABC, ESPN