What is the best part about the non-conference season? Most days, at least one ranked team is playing in a game.
While these games are often “buy-game blowouts,” we at least get to see some of the best teams in the country in action.
We have a bit of both in the Wednesday night slate.
The matchup between No. 25 Illinois and No. 8 Alabama should be a barnburner, while the Long Beach State versus No. 3 Gonzaga game has the capacity to be a blowout if the Beach aren’t knocking down 3-pointers.
Keep reading below for our analysis and the best college basketball picks for these two games!
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Date: Wednesday, November 20
Time: 9:00 pm EST
Moneyline: Illinois +280 | Alabama -360
Spread: Illinois +8.5 (-114) | Alabama -8.5 (-106)
Total: Over 167.5 (-115) | Under 167.5 (-105)
All odds are available via FanDuel Sportsbook but are subject to change.
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If you’re looking for a high-octane, fast-paced matchup between two of the top 25 teams in the country, look no further than this battle between the 25th-ranked Illinois Fighting Illini (47th in adjusted tempo, per KenPom) and eighth-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide (19th in adjT).
Alabama is fresh off a disappointing road loss to the now-sixth-ranked Purdue Boilermakers, who have already started the season off strong despite the departure of back-to-back Wooden Award-winner Zach Edey.
The Crimson Tide generated plenty of second-chance opportunities and open looks from 3-point land but could only knock down nine of their 29 attempts.
Purdue also played a near-perfect game, so ‘Bama should not be docked too much for its shortcomings against the Boilers.
Still, after starting the season off with a 56-point win against UNC Asheville, the Crimson Tide have since struggled a bit, winning two games against unranked opponents by single digits and losing to Purdue on the road.
It can’t be the start to the year that head coach Nate Oats had in mind.
Meanwhile, Illinois has sped off to a nice 3-0 start, but its last game against an Oakland team that lost their top four scorers from last season’s surprise March Madness Cinderella.
The Fighting Illini won by 12 points, but the game was much closer than the score indicated, as Oakland only hit 16% of its 3-point attempts. If a few more of those shots went in, Illinois would have been on upset alert.
Few teams have the frontcourt talent that Illinois possesses. It rotates Ben Humrichous, Tomislav Ivisic, and Will Riley, but its backcourt has not quite lived up to expectations.
Thus far, Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn, Kylan Boswell, and Kasparas Jakucionis have combined to hit just 28.6% of 3-point attempts. As a team, the Fighting Illini’s 3-point shooting is entirely propped up by Humrichous and Riley.
Ultimately, this is a terrific bounce-back spot for the Crimson Tide, who should see some positive shooting regression sooner rather than later. They generated an astonishing number of open 3-point looks against Purdue.
Purdue also had a near-perfect shooting day and got a career game from Trey Kaufman-Renn (26 points). Many things had to go right for the Boilers to secure the home upset.
Alabama’s offense is still the fourth-ranked unit nationally, per KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric, so it has been outstanding despite struggling from behind the arc.
Further, this Bama team is much more dangerous this season on the glass and on the defensive end of the floor, with a rim-protecting and rim-running big man like Cliff Omoruyi at the five spot.
Illinois’s frontcourt will have plenty of success bullying opposing teams this season, but I just don’t see Alabama’s 7-foot duo of Grant Nelson and Omoruyi being one of those examples.
Date: Wednesday, November 20
Time: 9:00 pm EST
Moneyline: Long Beach State N/A | Gonzaga N/A
Spread: Long Beach State +32.5 (-104) | Gonzaga -32.5 (-118)
Total: Over 152.5 (-110) | Under 152.5 (-110)
All odds are available via FanDuel Sportsbook but are subject to change.
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Gonzaga has looked utterly dominant during most of its four games thus far in the 2024-25 regular season, amassing four wins in four games and ranking first in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Of course, the Bulldogs were expected to be a top-tier offensive team after returning six of their top seven scorers from last season and bringing in two elite talents on that end of the floor in Michael Ajayi and Khalif Battle.
Defensively, the Zags look much improved over last year. They rank 24th in adjusted defensive efficiency and hold opponents to roughly 40% shooting from the floor and 25.3% from behind the arc.
This could finally be the Gonzaga team that wins a National Championship.
On the other hand, the Beach have had a brutal start to their 2024-25 regular season.
Two of Long Beach State’s three losses thus far have come by a combined three points, with the third being a 30-point beatdown at the hands of San Francisco.
To be fair, the Dons are projected to be the third-best team in a talented West Coast Conference despite losing Jonathan Mogbo to the NBA.
Long Beach State nearly snuck away from a road game against South Dakota State with a win but fell just one point short, while it also lost a nail-biter at home against Portland in a game that it should have won.
However, this team’s struggles are far from surprising. The Beach bolster a brand-new roster.
No, seriously, the roster is entirely different from last season.
Long Beach State lost Marcus Tsohonis, Jadon Jones, Aboubacar Traore, Lassina Traore, AJ George, Messiah Thompson, Amari Stroud, and Isa Silva. That list makes up their entire rotation from their Cinderella team that unexpectedly made the NCAA Tournament last year.
When Dan Monson was told he would be canned before the 2023-24 regular season even ended, that seemed to set the tone for how the players felt about his firing and the program’s current state overall.
So, their departures aren’t all that surprising.
Regardless, Long Beach State has some talent, particularly in its backcourt, which features Cal transfer Devin Askew and Robert Morris transfer TJ Wainwright.
Askew will be the primary scorer and will be heavily responsible for Beach’s offense, while Wainwright can provide some secondary scoring, playmaking, and 3-point shooting.
Long Beach State’s biggest offensive shortcomings are in its frontcourt, where its starting forwards combine to score fewer than 10 points per game. That is usually not a recipe for success.
Still, the Beach have a talented group of guards who can hit tough shots and keep this game close.
Long Beach State shouldn’t roll over with so many experienced guards to lean on.
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