How Will Maye, Darnold Handle Elite Defenses in the Super Bowl?

Super Bowl XL between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots isn’t expected to turn into the thrilling shootout most of America is dreaming of.

According to FanDuel’s Super Bowl betting odds at the time of writing, the projected over/under is only 45.5 points. If it closes at that value, that would make it the lowest total since the 43.5 points that were assigned to the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos in Super Bowl 50 in 2015. 

With the possibility of a defense-first shootout, both offenses will be judged by their execution in the key moments. The question is, who will win those battles?

Read our Seahawks vs Patriots Super Bowl Predictions.

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Darnold, Maye Prepare for Tough Super Bowl Defenses

Both Darnold and Maye have tall tasks ahead of them in the Super Bowl, facing off against two of the NFL’s best defenses.

The Seahawks and Pats allowed the fewest (17.1) and second-fewest (17.3) points per game. It’s far from a guarantee that both quarterbacks will be at their best, and the power could be in the hands of the defenders on Sunday.

Maye and the Patriots

The Patriots came up against five teams ranked in the top 10 in defensive regular-season EPA per play, two in the regular season and three in the playoffs: the Cleveland Browns, New Orleans Saints, Los Angeles Chargers, Houston Texans, and Denver Broncos.

Maye was nothing short of sensational against the Browns, going for 282 yards, three touchdowns, an interception, and 50 rushing yards. He was also terrific against the Saints, throwing for 261 yards and three touchdowns.

His fortunes changed when he got to the playoffs. Although he went unblemished, the most important stat, the win/loss column, his number fell.

The MVP runner-up averaged 177.7 passing yards and had four passing touchdowns and two interceptions. He also averaged 47 rushing yards, scored a touchdown, and lost three fumbles, while being sacked five times in each game.

The Patriots’ offense went from scoring 27.2 points per game overall and 28.5 per game against their distinguished regular-season opponents to just 18 per game in the playoffs. Their 54 total points through their first three playoff games are the fewest of any team that ever reached the Super Bowl.

Darnold and the Seahawks

On the other side, the Seahawks played seven games against teams in the top 10 for defensive EPA per play, three of those being against the Los Angeles Rams (two regular season, one playoff). They scored 29.3 average points in those matchups, one-upping their season standard of 29.2.

Sam Darnold proved to be a mixed bag during those matchups. He averaged 249.9 passing yards per game and had 10 touchdowns to seven interceptions, with six of those coming in regular-season meetings with the Rams.

However, Darnold both got his revenge and was at his best in the playoffs. His last appearance was a 346-yard, three-touchdown masterclass against the Rams, who were defeated by his Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game. 

While Darnold showed his volatility in the Rams’ trilogy, he was more consistent in the other games. He averaged 213.5 passing yards and had five touchdowns to one interception, and his team was 4-0 while scoring 29.3 points per game.