NFL Week 4 Picks Against the Spread: First London Game, Can Chargers & Patriots Stop the Slide?

The NFL is marching toward the final week of its first month of action in the 2026 season, and I have made my best picks against the spread for every matchup.

• Home teams covered 54.2% of the time (26-22)

• Home underdogs are the most profitable team against the spread, with a 58.8% hit rate (10-7)

• The Bills, Raiders and Jaguars have the best records against the spread (3-0)

Week 3 marked my first losing week of the new campaign. Ill-fated picks such as the Patriots +2.5 and Panthers -2.5 never had a chance, but taking the Bears at +5 helped finish the week strong.

Looking ahead, the narratives for teams around the league have begun to form. It’s also becoming increasingly clear which teams are contenders and which ones are pretenders now that there are a few weeks of data to judge.

I won’t keep you waiting any longer. These are my best bets and picks against the spread for every NFL Week 4 matchup.

• My 2026 NFL betting stats: 26-21-1 (55.3% against the spread)

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NFL Week 4 Picks ATS

With three weeks of games and market adjustments now in the books, our NFL Week 4 picks against the spread highlight where to find the best betting value across the entire slate.

Steelers vs. Browns - Oct. 1, 8:20 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Steelers -2.5 (-110), Browns +2.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Steelers -140, Browns +115

• Total: Over/under 38 (-110/-110)

Both of these AFC North foes are coming off underdog wins ahead of their short-week encounter, making an interesting shift in the latest AFC North odds. Deshaun Watson has, dare I say, stacked two decent weeks in a row, while the defense slowed down a red-hot Panthers offense — a real sentence I just said. I still don’t know how to feel about this team at all, but they’re 2-1 and trending in the right direction.

Aaron Rodgers still seems fairly reluctant to push the ball downfield, but he took some risks while enjoying a great day from Jaylen Warren out of the backfield. The defense didn’t do much to slow down the Bengals, but it put together stops on the final two drives of the game when the money was on the table. T.J. Watt is back to his best, but I think this team needs the running game to be successful. 

Never underestimate the value of having home-field advantage against a division rival on a short week. I am still thoroughly unconvinced by both of these teams, and I see little separation in the quarterback and coaching battles to break the tie. For those reasons, I side with the team getting points at home.

Steelers vs. Browns pick: Browns +2.5 (-110) at Fanatics

Colts vs. Commanders - Oct. 4, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Colts -3 (-115), Commanders +3 (-105)

• Moneyline: Colts -170, Commanders +140

• Total: Over/under 47 (-110/-110)

The Colts held the Texans to 223 total yards and 4.4 yards per play after they allowed more than 1,000 yards through their first two games. Daniel Jones threw exactly one touchdown and one interception in all three games and is yet to rush for more than 10 yards, and Jonathan Taylor still hasn’t gotten over 100 yards. Shane Steichen is a very smart football coach and got his defense to tighten up, but this is a team that now needs Jones to win from the pocket enough to force its opponents to back out of the box and give space to Taylor.

With their season on the line, the Commanders showed up and took down the defending Super Bowl champions in their home opener. They had no answers for Seattle’s passing game, but they plucked three turnovers and played clean football behind Marcus Mariota, despite not having a running game to speak of. This team should be generating much more pressure for its blitz rate, but it is first in the league in DVOA against the rush.

There’s uncertainty about if Mariota or Jayden Daniels (with a brace) will take the snaps for the Commanders. There’s a lot for both teams to build on, but the Commanders’ success at stopping the run and Jones’ one-dimensional nature may put them in the driver’s seat. I like the Commanders in an outright upset across the pond.

Colts vs. Commanders pick: Commanders +3 (-105) at Fanatics

Titans vs. Ravens - Oct. 4, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Titans +11.5 (-110), Ravens -11.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Titans +525, Ravens -750

• Total: Over/under 43.5 (-110/-110)

I don’t know what exactly is going on in Nashville, but the vibes are horrific. I simultaneously feel bad for Cam Ward being in a terrible situation and am totally unimpressed with his play, including his lackadaisical demeanor during live reps. This Tennessee team has been great in the trenches but horrible mostly everywhere else.

The Ravens gutted out a hard-fought victory over the Cowboys in Brazil, during which their offense was effective and explosive, despite only having modest box scores. Lamar Jackson is off to another great start, and Derrick Henry has averaged 100 yards and two touchdowns per game. I thought the defense would be much better, but I also regard Jesse Minter as one of the sharpest defensive minds in the sport. 

I don’t love betting on a team with a long flight home that essentially needs to win by two touchdowns, but I believe that the Titans have a real chance to go winless this year. Getting the better team at home after a momentous win feels like a let-down spot, but the Titans haven’t proven that they have the cohesiveness to stack impressive quarters, or even drives, together.

Titans vs. Ravens pick: Ravens -11.5 (-110) at Fanatics

Patriots vs. Bills - Oct. 4, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Patriots +6.5 (-110), Bills -6.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Patriots +250, Bills -320

• Total: Over/under 48.5 (-110/-110)

What do you say about the reigning MVP runner-up, who is currently 28th in EPA per play — behind Malik Willis, for reference? Drake Maye can’t do anything impressive right now, and they can’t run the ball. This defense has enough to take over games if it gets some support from its offense, but the vibes inside the building can’t be very positive if Mike Vrabel said that he had real concerns about his team.

ONLY someone with direct access to a higher power could figure out how THAT Josh Allen performance resulted in a Bills win against the Chargers. If anything, the answer lies in playing complementary football, as the defense played its first great game of the year, while James Cook logged a season-high 154 rushing yards. Allen rarely slumps in consecutive weeks, and the Bills overpowered the Lions the last time they were in a high-profile game in their new stadium.

It’s hard to envision the Patriots continuing to struggle to this degree, knowing their defense is still tied for 10th in EPA/play, and Maye looked like a franchise cornerstone less than nine months ago. That said, there’s a real reason to expect a dominant Josh Allen performance with a defense that might be figuring it out. My advice is to be brave and take the Patriots on the spread, but if they lose badly, it will be time for SERIOUS conversations.

Patriots vs. Bills pick: Patriots +6.5 (-110) at Fanatics

Jets vs. Bears - Oct. 4, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Jets +3 (-110), Bears -3 (-110)

• Moneyline: Jets +130, Bears -155

• Total: Over/under 43.5 (-105/-115)

I love what I have seen from the Jets so far this season. They should’ve beaten the Packers instead of suffering an overtime loss and hung tough against a more talented Lions team, even while losing Breece Hall to an injury. Hall’s absence will hurt in this game, but Geno Smith hasn’t thrown an interception this season, and the defense ranks 14th in EPA per play through three weeks.

Case Keenum starred in the Bears’ excellent Monday Night Football victory against the Eagles, leaving head coach Ben Johnson with a tough decision: stick with the hot hand, or insert Tyson Bagen into the lineup. The Bears are always going to move the ball with a scheme like theirs, and the play of their defense will be what defines them. Allowing 16 points over the last two weeks is certainly a nice way to silence any questions.

Backup quarterbacks typically don’t stack impressive performances week-to-week, otherwise, they wouldn’t be backup quarterbacks. However, Johnson’s style of offense is efficient and makes the quarterback’s job easier, whereas Smith is now facing a more difficult task without Hall. I could see this hanging in the balance, but I expect to see the Bears pull off the victory. 

Jets vs. Bears pick: Bears -3 (-110) at Fanatics

Jaguars vs. Bengals - Oct. 4, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Jaguars +2.5 (-110), Bengals -2.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Jaguars +115, Bengals -140

• Total: Over/under 51 (-110/-110)

The Jaguars’ disappointing second half against the Broncos may have forced the world to forget that this is a very good football team. Liam Coen and Grant Udinski are as sharp as any play-caller-offensive coordinator duo, and Ventrell Miller has taken over for Devin Lloyd without a hitch. This team is 15-5 over its last 20 games and now gets to go against a Bengals squad that, while improved, is known for blowing high-scoring games.

All of Cincinnati’s defensive improvements were brought into question by the Steelers after they had their way on offense. In hindsight, holding the Buccaneers and Texans offenses at bay may not have been as impressive as we thought, and they’re in for their biggest test of the young season with the Jags. Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins will always be formidable, but they can’t win games on their own.

Home-field advantage in this matchup is going to be huge, given both teams will feel comfortable in a game-winning drive scenario if they’re the ones with the ball. Jacksonville’s defense should feel supremely confident after last week, while I’m very unsure about the Bengals’ after last Sunday. I like the coaching advantage the Floridians possess and believe that can translate in a 1:00 game against a team not known for playing complementary football.

Jaguars vs. Bengals pick: Jaguars +2.5 (-110) at Fanatics

Cowboys vs. Texans - Oct. 4, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Cowboys +2.5 (-110), Texans -2.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Cowboys +115, Texans -140

• Total: Over/under 47.5 (-110/-110)

Dak Prescott and the Cowboys know how to move the football, that much is for sure. But there’s something ingrained in the DNA of this team that prevents it from being great when the lights are the brightest — completely the opposite of when the franchise became America’s favorite. The defense isn’t gelling under Christian Parker, and it’s unclear how they will remedy some of their issues.

After a promising offensive start to the year, the Texans are beginning to shut down. C.J. Stroud isn’t turning the ball over, but the offense can’t run behind an unimpressive line, and Stroud’s explosive throws are being taken away. The defense also isn’t dominating like it was expected to, which has led to an unfathomable 0-3 start.

Both of these Texas teams were expected to be in better positions than they currently find themselves. Both have absurd talent on one side of the ball and major questions on the other, and this game comes down to which is more consistent in the face of adversity. That’s a tough one to call, but the Texans’ defense can wreak havoc and help them deliver a win at home (finally).

Cowboys vs. Texans pick: Texans -2.5 (-110) at Fanatics

Cardinals vs. Giants - Oct. 4, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Cardinals +0.5 (-115), Giants -0.5 (-105)

• Moneyline: Cardinals -110, Giants -110

• Total: Over/under 44 (-110/-110)

The Cardinals are dead last in the NFL in both offensive and defensive explosive play rate, yet somehow, they beat the Chargers and played the 49ers extremely tough. Mike LaFleur just might know what he’s doing with a trio of Jacoby Brissett, Jeremiyah Love, and Trey McBride, among others. The defense is limited to a few standout players, which will always be a concern.

Trading for J.J. McCarthy shouldn’t jeopardize Jameis Winston’s starting spot this weekend after he went 14-22 for 118 yards in a 12-7 win against the Titans. This team looks lifeless without Jaxson Dart, although on a more positive note, rookie Arvell Reese flew around to make 13 tackles last weekend. The Giants’ defense has looked vulnerable on the back end and is obviously better the closer to the ball it is, although Brian Burns is now out for the year.

Neither team is playing for anything serious this year. But if push comes to shove, the piling Giants’ injuries and general lethargy felt by the entire franchise feels different from a Cardinals team that is a classic bad-but-exciting. LaFleur has his offense rolling, and I like their chances of outdueling a risk-prone Winston.

Cardinals vs. Giants pick: Cardinals +0.5 (-115) at Fanatics

Rams vs. Eagles - Oct. 4, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Rams -3 (-110), Eagles +3 (-110)

• Moneyline: Rams -165, Eagles +135

• Total: Over/under 43.5 (-115/-105)

The Rams didn’t show up in Australia, throttled the Giants, and then split their performance by the half against the Broncos on Sunday Night Football. Puka Nacua’s possible return to the lineup would supercharge an offense that has been reliant on the pass, even though Kyren Williams found some success against Denver. The biggest questions are on defense, where injuries are taking their toll, and they have given up too many easy points.

Philly’s offense just produced its least efficient game in four years, according to EPA, against the Bears. Jalen Hurts and Sean Mannion are not exactly gelling with an unimpressive offensive line, which has heaped tons of pressure onto the defense. That’s been fine in years past, but this iteration is 20th in success rate and 24th in EPA per play.

The thought of picking an underperforming team with injury problems to win by more than a field goal on the road in a hostile environment after just blowing a massive lead makes my skin crawl. Similarly, looking at the Eagles’ offense against, well, any team, is remarkably unappealing. Both teams could find themselves victims of it pouring whenever it rains, but getting a full field goal at home makes the Eagles my team of choice.

Rams vs. Eagles pick: Eagles +3 (-110) at Fanatics

Packers vs. Buccaneers - Oct. 4, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Packers -3.5 (-110), Buccaneers +3.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Packers -170, Buccaneers +140

• Total: Over/under 40 (-110/-110)

Matt LaFleur might be approaching his final days with the Packers. Scraping a win against the Jets in overtime and getting embarrassed by Carson Wentz and the Falcons have understandably enraged a fan base that had grown accustomed to winning football games over the past decades. There are serious problems in the backfield and on the offensive line, and the defense isn’t playing well enough to win games.

The Buccaneers’ 0-3 misery was compounded by Baker Mayfield going down with a thumb injury that will knock him out for several weeks. The defense has quietly done a very solid job, ranking fifth in both EPA per play and success rate, but the offense has been unimaginative and lifeless. Young Jalon Daniels — who hasn’t completed an NFL pass, but does have an interception — will take over under center in Mayfield’s absence.

This is an all-time, all-time, all-time get-right spot for the Packers. Although they are on the road and have very real concerns, getting a long week to self-scout and make adjustments to prepare for a team starting an undrafted rookie is just about as good as it gets. If Jordan Love can take care of the ball, the Packers can win by double-digits.

Packers vs. Buccaneers pick: Packers -3.5 (-110) at Fanatics

Dolphins vs. Vikings - Oct. 4, 4:05 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Dolphins +10 (-110), Vikings -10 (-110)

• Moneyline: Dolphins +420, Vikings -575

• Total: Over/under 39.5 (-110/-110)

The Dolphins have a very promising future… because they might get the first pick in the next NFL Draft! Malik Willis has one touchdown and two interceptions after three games, and star running back De’Von Achane was lost to a torn ACL. Jacob Rodriguez is picking up from his Heisman campaign and steadily climbing the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds board, but Miami overall… yikes.

The undefeated Vikings just need a quarterback not to sabotage the team to win games, as they’ve proven for years. Brian Flores is blitzing at a historic rate to devastating effect, and the offense is slugging along, albeit slower than preferred. Kyler Murray should get more comfortable as he gets more time on task and away from his concussion, although Justin Jefferson is questionable with an ankle injury.

It’s shocking how quickly the odds are moving away from the Dolphins, but that’s a fair reflection of where they are as a franchise. There’s close to nothing positive to speak of with this team, and I worry about its ability to even score seven points against a Vikings defense playing the way it is. I’m anticipating turnovers and a blowout home win for Minnesota.

Dolphins vs. Vikings pick: Vikings -10 (-110) at Fanatics

Chiefs vs. Raiders - Oct. 4, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Chiefs -4.5 (-110), Raiders +4.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Chiefs -220, Raiders +180

• Total: Over/under 47.5 (-110/-110)

The Chiefs completely rebuilt their offense in the offseason and have successfully transitioned to a younger personnel group on defense. They scored nearly 29 points per game while allowing less than 17, and two of their wins came by multiple touchdowns. Patrick Mahomes still doesn’t have great receiving options, but that’s of little concern with the offensive line blocking how it is and Kenneth Walker III carrying the ball like a runaway freight train.

Very few people would’ve foreseen the Raiders beginning their season 2-0 with wins of eight, 12, and 14 points. Kirk Cousins has gotten better with every passing game, and the offense is 15th in EPA per play despite Ashton Jeanty averaging just 3.3 yards per carry. The most impressive performances have been on defense, where they rank second in EPA per play and eighth in success rate.

This is setting up to be a game of fine margins. The Chiefs rank third in yards allowed per play, while the Raiders lead the entire league with nine total takeaways. It's a credit to the Raiders that this line is only 4.5 points, but I don’t expect them to have as much success taking the ball away against a disciplined football team, while Cousins’ lack of arm strength puts him in danger of tossing an interception when he tries to push the ball down the field.

Chiefs vs. Raiders pick: Chiefs -4.5 (-110) at Fanatics

Chargers vs. Seahawks - Oct. 4, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Chargers +6.5 (-105), Seahawks -6.5 (-115)

• Moneyline: Chargers +250, Seahawks -320

• Total: Over/under 43 (-110/-110)

The Chargers CAN’T be this bad, can they? Mike McDaniel and Justin Herbert don’t appear to be on the same page at all, their running game has been ineffective, and they haven’t scored more than 16 points in a game thus far. The defense decided to show up in last weekend’s loss to Buffalo and has swiped six takeaways, tied for third in football, although that makes it even more concerning that the team is winless through three weeks - causing their Super Bowl odds to plummet.

Seattle’s play-action boot game is deadly with how easily Jaxon Smith-Njigba can dominate space in the middle of the field. They need Jadarian Price in their backfield, but he is having his opportunities limited because he can’t stop fumbling the ball. The defense is still third in EPA per play and second in success rate despite allowing 27 offensive points last weekend, but they aren’t quite generating pressure like they expect to with only four rushers.

An 0-4 start might lead to heads rolling quickly in Los Angeles. And that could be on the board, considering the Seahawks’ physical brand of football and sheer talent, not to mention that they will be looking for revenge after just suffering their first loss in 2026. I still have to side with the Chargers, because of their talent and the simple fact that a professional team can’t continue to play this poorly.

Chargers vs. Seahawks pick: Chargers +6.5 (-105) at Fanatics

Broncos vs. 49ers - Oct. 4, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Broncos +3 (-110), 49ers -3 (-110)

• Moneyline: Broncos +125, 49ers -150

• Total: Over/under 46.5 (-110/-110)

The Broncos have proven to be second-half demons, if the last two weeks mean anything. There’s a real problem with Bo Nix playing like garbage in one quarter and then being in total control the very next, only to slip back into the same pattern when the next half begins, and he currently sits 24th in QBR. The defense has been overpowered in six of 12 quarters of football this year, but it finished with its hair on fire in last Sunday night’s win over the Rams.

Kyle Shanahan’s system is operating at peak efficiency, in part because Brock Purdy has legitimately entered MVP conversations with how he started the year. The Niners lead the NFL in multiple offensive metrics (by a wide margin) and are finding ways to produce while also getting crushed by injuries. They gave up 30 points to the Cardinals last week, but they also didn’t allow a 20-yard pass or a 10-yard rush and have been pretty buttoned up on that side of the ball.

I don’t see how the Broncos can continue to start games the way they have and get away with it, not to mention that they are once again relying on one-score luck — an unsustainable approach to playing a season of games. Davis Webb is clearly growing as a play-caller, while Shanahan’s crew is full-steam ahead in front of their home fans. This might be a message to Broncos fans everywhere.

Broncos vs. 49ers pick: 49ers -3 (-110) at Fanatics

Lions vs. Panthers - Oct. 4, 8:20 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Lions -3.5 (+100), Panthers +3.5 (-120)

• Moneyline: Lions -170, Panthers +140

• Total: Over/under 50.5 (-110/-110)

So the Lions basically don’t have a chance of winning games if they don’t score at least 30 points, as seen by them going 2-1 with one- and seven-point wins while scoring… at least 30 points in every game. Jared Goff is off to a blistering pace of eight TDs and no interceptions, while Jahmyr Gibbs has 463 yards from scrimmage. The problem is the defense allowed nearly 32 points per outing and has no viable solutions because of the constant losses in the secondary.

I was a total believer in the Panthers until they laid an egg on the road against the Browns last weekend. Bryce Young leads the NFL in passing yards and is still playing impressive football overall, but the offense hasn’t found a way to fully unleash reigning Rookie of the Year, Tetairoa McMillan. The defense has also had three completely different performances thus far, and even though I like their personnel, they need more consistency. 

It’s not surprising to see this game have a total above 50 points. The Panthers allowed a league-high 5.7 yards per carry, which spells big trouble against Gibbs, but Young is going to be able to tee-off against a bruised and battered secondary in front of his home fans. Be ready for fireworks in this matchup as the Panthers find a way to keep it close in their building.

Lions vs. Panthers pick: Panthers +3.5 (-120) at Fanatics

Falcons vs. Saints - Oct. 5, 8:15 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Falcons +2.5 (+100), Saints -2.5 (-120)

• Moneyline: Falcons +125, Saints -150 

• Total: Over/under 48.5 (-110/-110)

Michael Penix Jr. wasn’t great in his 2026 debut, but he did more than enough to move the ball in the Falcons’ 35-14 win over the Packers on Thursday Night Football. A long week of rest will benefit Bijan Robinson and Drake London, who shouldered heavy burdens, along with a team that is looking to settle into winning ways. The defense has looked fairly impressive so far, despite missing Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr., but they haven’t faced great offenses.

Kellen Moore and Tyler Shough are going to spray the ball around the field, that much is clear. The running game has been pretty irrelevant so far, and Shough will throw interceptions, but players such as Chris Olave and Chase Young have supported him with great starts to their seasons. The Saints will feel like they should’ve won last week and could’ve won their season opener, which they only lost by one point in overtime after rallying from 21 down.

The Falcons’ biggest advantage is getting a long week of rest before this matchup. The Saints are playing their second straight home game and will be motivated, while Penix Jr. is looking to lock down the starting role after Tua Tagovailoa appeared to be in the driver’s seat after he was signed. This has the makings of a close matchup in primetime, but I like the Falcons with nearly two weeks of rest between their contests. 

Falcons vs. Saints pick: Falcons +2.5 (+100) at Fanatics

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