NFL Week 3 Picks Against the Spread: Bengals Are Real, Rams Set for Super Bowl Charge?

Week 3 is one of the most difficult weeks for NFL picks against the spread. An entire offseason of evaluations are being matched against two weeks of data, which could represent totally contrasting results or unexpected trends that bring into question everything that one believed before the season opener. Which teams are the best bets to cover the spread in Week 3, and where am I going with my picks? Let’s dive into all of that and more.

• Away favorites (62.5%) have been the best category of team against the spread

• Favorites overall covered in 53.1% of matchups

• The Bills, Bengals, Raiders, Vikings, Saints, Jets and 49ers are 2-0 ATS

A pair of 10-6 weeks have gotten me off to an enjoyable start to the 2026 season. I was all over unpopular results such as the Vikings +5.5, Jets +3.5, Titans +7 and Browns +8 last weekend, but I whiffed on Ravens -8 and Chargers -7, among others.

As we look ahead to a new week of football, it’s time to make crucial decisions. Which teams are legit that nobody expected? Who is a sheep in wolf’s clothing?

These are my NFL picks against the spread for EVERY Week 3 matchup.

• My 2026 NFL betting stats: 20-12 (62.5% against the spread)

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NFL Week 3 Picks ATS

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Falcons vs. Packers - Sept. 24, 8:20 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Falcons +7 (-110), Packers -7 (-110)

• Moneyline: Falcons +260, Packers -330

• Total: Over/under 44 (-110/-110)

The Falcons are a horrific football team; we can all agree. Cooper Rush looks like he doesn’t belong on an NFL field, and with Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. both out, Jack Strand threw a pick-six on his first play. The defense was absolutely torched by Bryce Young, and the results aren’t anywhere near good enough, considering some of the standout talent on the roster.

The Packers were lucky to escape with an overtime victory against the New York Jets, a game that they trailed by two scores in the second half. The ineffectiveness of the running game has been a recurring issue for a team that bases its offense on running consistency, and the defense struggled to string together stops. Jordan Love is playing clean football, but he hasn’t been effective.

I believe that the Packers — as average as they have looked — are better than we are being led to believe. That said, it’s typically dangerous to bank on a slumping team to continue to underperform after a bad first couple of weeks, and Penix should add a semblance of life to the offense. The Falcons might’ve been competitive in their recent matchups if they hadn’t repeatedly shot themselves in the foot, so I’ll cautiously back them here. 

Falcons vs. Packers pick: Falcons +7 (-110) at Fanatics

Chargers vs. Bills - Sept. 27, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Chargers +7 (-110), Bills -7 (-110)

• Moneyline: Chargers +265, Bills -340

• Total: Over/under 50 (-110/-110)

What the heck is going on with the Chargers? A team that was in the top seven in preseason Super Bowl odds has lost back-to-back games 26-14 to teams that picked first and third in the last NFL Draft. Justin Herbert has been a loose cannon, with all players combined averaging 3.9 yards per carry, and their defense looks shambolic without Jesse Minter at the controls. 

The Bills are enjoying life with Joe Brady as their head coach, having just beaten the Lions in their first game in their new stadium, 41-31. Josh Allen is playing MVP-level football, but the defense gave up 31 points in both games so far. Complementary football is needed for this team to go on the run it’s been waiting for since Allen arrived in town, but the firepower is undeniable.

I loved the Chargers entering the season. Even though the Bills are at home after a long week of preparation, I can’t help but assume that the Bolts will figure out how to weaponize their talent at some point — particularly against a defense that has the impregnability of a screen door on a submarine. The Week 3 bounceback is real, and it’s the primary reason that I am siding with the visitors.

Chargers vs. Bills pick: Chargers +7 (-110) at Fanatics

Panthers vs. Browns - Sept. 27, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Panthers -2.5 (-120), Browns +2.5 (+100)

• Moneyline: Panthers -150, Browns +125

• Total: Over/under 41 (-110/-110)

I am absolutely a believer in what the Panthers are cooking. Bryce Young has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league, albeit against two bad defenses, and the defense gave up three points after allowing 59 the week before — what a dichotomy! This team has talent and a solid coach and can routinely beat bad teams, as long as it is healthy.

A two-hour weather delay didn’t stop the Browns from defending their lead with two minutes left against the Buccaneers as they went on to win their first game of the season. Deshaun Watson actually looked like an NFL player, although the running game was flat-out horrific. The defense played well against the pass, but is in for a challenge against an in-form Young and weapons like Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker.

These have been two of the worst teams in the NFL for years, but I now view the Panthers as a legitimately respectable team. Watson doesn’t look dependable down-to-down, much less week-to-week, even though he was good on Sunday, and Cleveland’s defense is clearly not the same without Myles Garrett. I like the Panthers to win by at least a field goal on the road.  

Panthers vs. Browns pick: Panthers -2.5 (-120) at Fanatics

Jets vs. Lions - Sept. 27, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Jets +6.5 (-110), Lions -6.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Jets +240, Lions -300

• Total: Over/under 48.5 (-110/-110)

What is this world that we’re living in where the Jets might be a competitive football team? The trio of Geno Smith, Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson has proven to be enough to move the football, and they were able to control most of their overtime loss to the Packers on Sunday. The defense also surrendered just 142.5 passing yards per game thus far while also playing solid run defense, which puts this team in a nice position moving into Week 3.

The Lions miss Ben Johnson and healthy defensive players. Jared Goff is excellent in a clean pocket and close to useless when pressure is in his face, which gives him a high floor that is capped in key moments. A weak secondary will be a major concern until the Lions stop fooling around and trade for Joey Porter Jr. — oops, I mean until they start to gel on the back end.

The Lions feel due for a strong performance after they were a two-point conversion away from blowing a 21-point home lead in Week 1 and were never competitive in Week 2. At the same time, the Jets are proving to be a pesky opponent now that they have adults and playmakers in rooms on both sides of the ball. This is harsh, given the Jets’ early performances, but I think the Lions are finally ready to erupt in their home arena, especially if they can snag an interception or two off of Smith.

Jets vs. Lions pick: Lions -6.5 (-110) at Fanatics

Texans vs. Colts - Sept. 27, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Texans -2.5 (-115), Colts +2.5 (-105)

• Moneyline: Texans -145, Colts +120

• Total: Over/under 45 (-110/-110)

I’m very unsure what to make of the Texans through two games. Defensively, they have all of the talent in the world, but they aren’t performing up to the level that is expected of them. Offensively, CJ Stroud is third in the NFL in passing yards and hasn’t turned the ball over, yet he’s only 21st in QBR.

The Colts allowed 74 points and more than 1,000 yards of total offense through two games, despite having players such as Sauce Gardner, Charvarius Ward, DeForest Buckner and Laiatu Latu on their squad. Daniel Jones threw a touchdown and an interception in both games thus far, while Jonathan Taylor has been productive but hasn’t hit 100 yards in a game. This feels like a team that is finding itself in real-time with a coach in Shane Steichen whose teams are always competitive, but rarely excellent.

I thought that the Texans had a chance to win the AFC before the year began, which was initially reflected in their solid AFC Championship odds. Although they made the playoffs after starting 0-3 a year ago, I am not sure that is a sustainable model for success. I still like that Stroud is playing clean football and can only imagine that their defense will wake up soon, and I’d back them on the road.

Texans vs. Colts pick: Texans -2.5 (-115) at Fanatics

Patriots vs. Jaguars - Sept. 27, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Patriots +2.5 (-105), Jaguars -2.5 (-115)

• Moneyline: Patriots +125, Jaguars -150

• Total: Over/under 45 (-110/-110)

Drake Maye, a preseason favorite in most NFL MVP predictions after finishing as the reigning runner-up, has one touchdown and four interceptions in two games so far, while the running game has been erratic. A.J. Brown is out for at least another couple of weeks, putting lots of pressure on the defense to stop the bleeding. Fortunately, that unit just held the Steelers to three points and 3.5 yards per play.

Jacksonville started hot and completely flamed out in a road loss to the Broncos on Sunday, 20-13. Trevor Lawrence followed up a majestic opener against the Browns with a ho-hum 189 yards and one touchdown, while the running committee combined for just 95 yards on 24 carries. The defense played well, but this is firmly an offensive team under Liam Coen and Grant Udinski.

It’s interesting to see the Patriots as underdogs, given they were just in the Super Bowl and continue to hold steady Super Bowl odds. Losing right guard Mike Onwenu to a major injury won’t help anything, and the team now appears reliant on its defense to win games — as long as Maye is in his slump. I love the Jaguars’ offense, last week notwithstanding, but am not sure their defense can consistently play at the level needed to beat quality opponents without more support from the O.

Patriots vs. Jaguars pick: Patriots +2.5 (-105) at Fanatics

Chiefs vs. Dolphins - Sept. 27, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Chiefs -10.5 (-110), Dolphins +10.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Chiefs -650, Dolphins +460

• Total: Over/under 45.5 (-110/-110)

Patrick Mahomes looked like Patrick Mahomes again as he threw for 382 yards and three touchdowns in Sunday night’s overtime victory against the Colts. Kenneth Walker III has been a huge success in the backfield, and the offense has a physical approach unlike the one it had in years past. The defense is a work in progress because of the transition to several young players, but Steve Spagnuolo is reminding the world of why he is arguably the most underrated coach in the sport.

It’s hard to quantify just how bad the Dolphins are on both sides of the ball. They allowed Brock Purdy to go 20-22 for 287 yards last weekend and have given up 62 points through two games, while their offense scored exactly 13 points in both of their early matchups. Defenses have keyed in on De’Von Achane and forced Malik Willis to air out the ball, leading to him ranking 28th in QBR.

In no world could you pay me to bet on the Dolphins as an outright winner, but that’s not what this is about. I’m paying attention to if the Chiefs can play more consistent down-to-down defense and if their offensive physicality will translate to a consistent running game on the road, while the Dolphins need to find a way to stay ahead of the chains. Kansas City allowed just 3.8 yards per carry thus far, so I do ultimately believe that they can stay on the front foot and force Willis to beat them, if such a thing is possible. 

Chiefs vs. Dolphins pick: Chiefs -10.5 (-110) at Fanatics

Titans vs. Giants - Sept. 27, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Titans +2.5 (+100), Giants -2.5 (-120) 

• Moneyline: Titans +125, Giants -150

• Total: Over/under 39.5 (-110/-110)

The Titans contained the Eagles’ running game sans Saquon Barkley and caught two interceptions from Jalen Hurts last week, but Cam Ward once again looked overmatched. I really worry about the future of this team for numerous reasons, including the stunting of its quarterback development, the lack of complementary football, and the strength of the defense being isolated to its front line. The good news for them is they will be facing a backup quarterback and a team that will presumably be lower in morale. 

Jameis Winston excelled as a media correspondent during the FIFA World Cup this summer. The issue is that might have detracted from his preparation for the upcoming NFL season, as he was flat-out horrible in relief of the injured Jaxson Dart. The Giants have the worst defensive EPA/play in the entire league and would be known for that if the offense wasn’t so brilliant in Week 1.

Winston has delivered big performances and unexpected wins in the past. His ability to galvanize a team is well-documented, but he’ll really need his defense to come along for the ride. The good news is that I believe they can do that against a Titans team that still has a long, long way to go before it becomes the finished product.

Titans vs. Giants pick: Giants -2.5 (-120) at Fanatics

Bengals vs. Steelers - Sept. 27, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Bengals -3.5 (-105), Steelers +3.5 (-115)

• Moneyline: Bengals -190, Steelers +155

• Total: Over/under 42.5 (-115/-105)

You’re not going to believe this, but the Bengals have more than just a pulse on defense — they have real life! Dexter Lawrence almost single-handedly turned around their run-stopping, and they allowed six points last week after forcing four turnovers the weekend before. A 2-0 start with Ja’Marr Chase only having 87 yards thus far is a winning recipe.

Only Cooper Rush and Jameis Winston have worse EPA/play numbers than Aaron Rodgers, who is also 30th in QBR. The four-time MVP is beyond a shell of himself and looks feeble and timid, and his receivers don’t seem to know how to catch the ball. The running backs also averaged a miserable 3.4 yards per carry, and we won’t know how good their defense is until they get more matchups with quality opponents.

Betting on a road team to win by at least a field goal in a divisional matchup is usually seen as a square bet. The difference here is the Bengals offense can and should play much better, there’s a severe difference in offensive talent between the two teams, and Mike Tomlin is no longer around to keep the Steelers competitive regardless of circumstance. I expect the Bengals to win by at least a touchdown.

Bengals vs. Steelers pick: Bengals -3.5 (-105) at Fanatics

Seahawks vs. Commanders - Sept. 27, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Seahawks -6.5 (-110), Commanders +6.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Seahawks -285, Commanders +230

• Total: Over/under 40.5 (-110/-110)

Drew Lock made the most of a full week of practice as the starter with Sam Darnold sidelined by an injury, going 19-26 for 235 yards and three touchdowns. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been extraordinarily productive to start the season, while the running game has been a consistent metronome to keep the team rolling. The defense surrendered 17 points through two games and consistently plays on the front foot thanks to a blend of talent and Mike MacDonald’s sheer genius.

What looked like it could’ve been a promising season for the Commanders feels like an eerily similar repeat of last year, with Jayden Daniels injured and the defense seeming to be clueless of how to track downfield receivers. Daronte Jones uses a blitz-heavy scheme that can create problems, but the team’s secondary simply is not up to an NFL level. The coming weeks will truly test Dan Quinn’s hold on the locker room and the mental resolve of a team that is back in the fire for the second straight year.

While I believe the Commanders’ defense can play much better than it did in Week 2, and Marcus Mariota made plays in relief for Daniels, I’ve also seen this movie before. The Commanders don’t show up for big games, and their home opener is setting up to be a massive disappointment. Misery loves company, and I love the Seahawks.

Seahawks vs. Commanders pick: Seahawks -6.5 (-110) at Fanatics

Cardinals vs. 49ers - Sept. 27, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Cardinals +8 (-110), 49ers -8 (-110)

• Moneyline: Cardinals +325, 49ers -425

• Total: Over/under 48 (-110/-110)

It didn’t take long for the Cardinals to settle back into reality as they were throttled by the Seahawks after shocking the Chargers as a 10-point underdog in Week 1. Jacoby Brissett has proven he can move the ball, but the running game is yet to truly get going. The defense also looked totally different week-to-week and is still relatively untalented by NFL standards.

It’s early, but the 49ers have wins of 20 and 22 points through two weeks. Brock Purdy appears to have gotten even better, and a cast of old-guard offensive playmakers are fighting. The defense could actually be better, even though it only allowed 20 points in two games, as they regularly lose running downs due to holes on the defensive line.

I entered the year believing that the Cardinals would be the worst team in the league. Their season-opening result was a shock to the system, but I expect to see them settle back into the NFL basement. All of that said, Brissett can get them up and down the field, and Jeremiyah Love might have a chance to get rolling against this defensive front.

Cardinals vs. 49ers pick: Cardinals +8 (-110) at Fanatics

Vikings vs. Buccaneers - Sept. 27, 4:05 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Vikings -2.5 (-110), Buccaneers +2.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Vikings -130, Buccaneers +110

• Total: Over/under 43.5 (-110/-110)

The Vikings are 2-0 with wins over the Packers and Bears despite predominantly putting Carson Wentz under center. They expect to welcome Kyler Murray back from concussion protocol this week, which should give even more juice to their offense. Brian Flores is blitzing more than he has in his entire career, and the defense currently ranks sixth in EPA allowed per play.

Baker Mayfield is giving every Buccaneers fan and staff member a heaping serving of buyer’s remorse with his start to the year, which includes less than 200 yards per game, a touchdown, an interception, and three fumbles lost. The team just lost to the Browns at home and let Deshaun Watson look like a respectable NFL quarterback, which is a sin in and of itself. I have to believe the offensive talent will wake up eventually, but it certainly hasn’t happened through two games.

Week 3 is a difficult week to pick, because evidence is starting to pile — and that sometimes conflicts with pre-season evaluations and expectations. I am terrified of how Mayfield will handle Flores’ blitzing defense, but I am also aware that the Vikings aren’t a perfect football team. The best time to beat them with Murray under center should be the week after he returns from a concussion, so I’ll tentatively back the underdogs at home. 

Vikings vs. Buccaneers pick: Buccaneers +2.5 (-110) at Fanatics

Ravens vs. Cowboys - Sept. 27, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Ravens -3 (-105), Cowboys +3 (-115)

• Moneyline: Ravens -155, Cowboys +130

• Total: Over/under 52.5 (-110/-110)

After an incredible season opener, the Ravens failed to deliver in clutch moments and lost to the Saints as a huge home favorite. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry were both mediocre, and the defense got lit up by Tyler Shough in key moments. I still regard Jesse Minter as one of the best defensive minds in the sport, but he’s up against it with a matchup scheduled against an in-form Cowboys offense.

Dak Prescott looked like one of the best quarterbacks in the world last week, throwing for 279 yards and four touchdowns. The defense is an obvious work in progress, but switching green dots to rookie Jaishawn Barham helped remedy some of their Week 1 woes. This team has struggled for week-to-week consistency, and this will be a great time to test if they’ve finally come of age and are ready to climb the NFC Championship odds board.

Traveling to Rio, Brazil, adds an equalizing factor to this matchup. Jackson historically owns the NFC, but the Cowboys’ high-octane passing attack seems capable of befuddling any defense. This is a tall task for the Dallas defense, and I like the Ravens’ running game to translate to Brazilian territory.

Ravens vs. Cowboys pick: Ravens -3 (-105) at Fanatics

Raiders vs. Saints - Sept. 27, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Raiders +3.5 (-120), Saints -3.5 (+100)

• Moneyline: Raiders +150, Saints -180

• Total: Over/under 43.5 (-105/-115)

The Raiders are a testament to how being aggressive in free agency can turn around a franchise. Their 2-0 start behind first-time head coach Klint Kubiak has seen them average 26.5 points per game and post the best defensive EPA/play in the league. Kirk Cousins threw three interceptions in two games, however, which must be cleaned up if this team is going to continue winning in the long-term.

Tyler Shough averaged 331 passing yards per game and has made big-time throws, although he’s also put the ball in harm’s way. The lack of a running game has been problematic, but a Chase Young-anchored pass-rush on the opposite side has helped the defense maintain a strong presence. Kellen Moore appears to know what he’s doing, as the Saints already beat the Ravens on the road and were a two-point conversation away from taking down the Lions in Detroit. 

The Raiders proved their season-opening win against the hapless Dolphins wasn’t a fluke by easily handling the Chargers last week. The Saints, meanwhile, have been convincing in their performances and are now heading back to make their home opener. I think both of these teams probably aren’t quite as good as they’ve shown thus far, but I’m more drawn to the Saints in front of their fans for the first time.

Raiders vs. Saints pick: Saints -3.5 (+100) at Fanatics

Rams vs. Broncos - Sept. 27, 8:20 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Rams -2.5 (-110), Broncos +2.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Rams -140, Broncos +115

• Total: Over/under 45.5 (-110/-110)

The Rams reminded the world of their true might in primetime in Week 2, easily taking care of the Giants, 28-6. Davante Adams turned back the years without Puka Nacua in the lineup, while Matthew Stafford once again looked like an MVP winner. Aaron Donald also led all interior defensive linemen in win rate after being away from the game for nearly 900 days, which is a terrifying prospect as he gets back into game sharpness.

Denver might’ve saved its season with its second-half performance against the Jaguars, which ended in a 20-13 victory at home. Bo Nix played better, but the running game was still a fairly large miss. The biggest improvement from Week 1 came on defense, as they held the high-powered Jags to 4.9 yards per play and snagged an interception off Trevor Lawrence.

The Rams are obviously the better team here, but they’re looking for consistency between their first two showings of the year. The Broncos just played like a team that went to the AFC Championship Game, but they also looked vulnerable and undisciplined in Week 1. After one-score luck was in their favor throughout last year, I believe that regression to the mean is in order.

Rams vs. Broncos pick: Rams -2.5 (-110) at Fanatics

Eagles vs. Bears - Sept. 27, 8:15 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Eagles -5 (-110), Bears +5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Eagles -235, Bears +190

• Total: Over/under 41 (-110/-110)

Jalen Hurts threw a pair of nasty interceptions last week, but he also came up clutch when his team needed him to. The defense has actually been pretty unimpressive analytically, but it does a great job of constricting quarterbacks and forcing them to take check-down options. Saquon Barkley should also be back in full after he suffered a stinger last Sunday.

The Bears could be without Caleb Williams and Tyson Bagent, putting the fate of their offense in the hands of Case Keenum. Their defense has not played very well so far, and it isn’t forcing turnovers. Ben Johnson knows the Eagles well from matchups over the past few years, but he is at a disadvantage with key players such as Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, and Colston Loveland slow out of the blocks to begin the year. 

It would take some kind of miracle to prevent the Eagles from winning this game if the Bears are without their two best cornerbacks. That said, the Philly offense has looked disjointed and is still very clearly adjusting to life with Sean Mannion as the offensive coordinator. Keenum is a reputable backup, and I could see the Bears finding a way to lose this game by fewer points than many would expect.

Eagles vs. Bears pick: Bears +5 (-110) at Fanatics

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