Does Leading the NFL in Scoring Margin Guarantee the Seahawks a Super Bowl LX Title?

It only makes sense that the NFL teams with the best scoring margins are meeting in Super Bowl LX.

The Seattle Seahawks outscored their opponents by 12.1 points per game, giving them the highest total in the league. The New England Patriots were second and close behind at +9.9 points per game, 1.2 points above the third-place Los Angeles Rams.

That metric indicates that Super Bowl LX is the correct matchup between the two best teams in the league… but what does history tell us about point margin’s effectiveness in determining not only Super Bowl contenders, but Super Bowl winners?

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Finding the Average Scoring Margin

A team’s average scoring margin is a simple reflection of its aggregate score across every matchup during its season. Here’s its mathematical representation:

• (Points Scored - Points Allowed) / Games Played = Average scoring margin

This simple statistic can be heavily influenced by blowout wins and losses. It also shows if teams are more or less comfortable in one-score games, and it inherently limits defensive-minded teams with less powerful offenses.

Regardless, it is a quick way to comprehensively judge a football team, and in the case of Super Bowl LX, the top two finishers both advanced to the championship stage.

The Seahawks being 2.2 average points per game ahead of the Patriots would suggest they are rightful favorites in the matchup, but not by the full 4.5 points that FanDuel awarded them. 

How does scoring margin stack up across recent Super Bowl history? Let’s find out.

Scoring Margin and Super Bowl History

Going back to 2000, these are the average scoring margins and results for the teams that reached the Super Bowl.

The data shows that across the last 20 Super Bowls, only eight teams (40 percent) with better point differential won the Big Game. 

However, that distribution evened out over the last 10 Super Bowls, with the higher- and lower-ranked teams in point differential claiming five titles apiece.

Teams that ranked first in average scoring margin are 4-5 (44.4 percent going back to 2005), but also 4-2 (66.7 percent) since 2014. Those teams also went 5-1 (83.3 percent) against the spread during that same period. 

Essentially, teams with lower scoring margins actually performed better going back to the start of the 20-year span. However, 11 years ago, that trend flipped and began to favor the higher-ranked team, both from an outright and betting perspective.

The Seahawks and Patriots will determine if the scoring margin trend continues when they meet in Super Bowl LX on Sunday.

FanDuel Sportsbook has the Seahawks listed as 4.5-point favorites at -112 odds.

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