The NFL Draft Dominos: Where Does the Draft Actually Start?

The NFL Draft is only days away from taking place. Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza will kick off the proceedings when he is inevitably selected first by the Las Vegas Raiders, allowing the draft to “officially” begin.

There are a number of dominoes that are a teeter and a totter away from rendering an offseason of mock drafts completely useless. NFL Draft prediction markets show a variety of picks that are in near-limbo, and that’s before any draft-night surprises shake up the board even further.

What’s the latest news? How is the top-10 shaping up? Who could trade up on Draft night? Those are all of the questions that will be answered as best as possible below.

The Latest NFL Draft Buzz

The Raiders are taking Mendoza first. You can write that in pen.

The New York Jets provide the first source of skepticism at two. The Ringer’s Todd McShay said last week in what was likely his final mock draft that it’s a “foregone conclusion” the team will select Texas Tech pass-rusher David Bailey.

Bailey had been scheduled to visit the Jets last week, although the team canceled that meeting, leaving everyone in the dark. Prediction platform Kalshi believes that there is still a 60 percent chance that Ohio State’s Arvell Reese is the pick at two, while Bailey is trailing at 35 percent.

Note: Kalshi’s real-time probabilities are influenced by consumer demand and are not traditional sportsbook betting odds.

There’s a great deal of mystery surrounding the Cardinals at the third pick. ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported on Monday morning that Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love (27 percent) is in play, although Reese (23 percent) or Bailey (36 percent), Miami offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa (12 percent), and several others all possibly stand a chance, per Kalshi’s probabilities.

Love has been the favorite to be selected fourth by the Tennessee Titans for about a month. New head coach Robert Saleh reportedly understands that a lack of offense led to his dismissal from the Jets two years ago, while new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has pounded the table for the dual-threat back throughout the process.

Bailey and Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles have also been linked to Tennessee, although not to the same degree.

The New York Giants are now picking fifth and 10th after they traded two-time All-Pro defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence to the Cincinnati Bengals. All signs point to John Harbaugh and company selecting one of the Ohio State duo between Styles (48 percent) and safety Caleb Downs (20 percent), although Arizona State wide receiver Jordyn Tyson has emerged after showcasing his health at a workout in front of more than 20 teams last week.

Make Your Predictions NFL Draft Predictions at Kalshi

Rounding Out the Top 10

NFL reporter Josh Taylor revealed that the Cleveland Browns – who are picking sixth – were leading the race to land Lawrence in a trade with the Giants. That is, until their offer was dwarfed by the Bengals’ offering up the 10th pick in Thursday’s draft.

The Browns are widely considered a prime candidate to trade back for a suitable offer. The Dallas Cowboys and Kansas City Chiefs have been discussed as the teams most likely to push into the top six, although nothing concrete has materialized.

Ohio State wide receiver Carnell Tate (25 percent) is the clubhouse leader at Kalshi, followed by Utah offensive tackle Spencer Fano (16 percent), Mauigoa (16 percent), and Styles (15 percent).

Multiple insiders believe Styles and Love are in a tier above the rest of the prospects for the Commanders at seven. Unfortunately for them, both are expected to be taken at earlier picks, which would leave Tate (23 percent) and Downs (13 percent) as the top options. Walter Football’s Charlie Campbell also reported that the Commanders “badly” want to trade back, and would target LSU cornerback Mansoor Delane if they found the right partner.

With Tyson being the flavor of the week, the New Orleans Saints have emerged as a top contender for the playmaking receiver at eight (26 percent). Miami’s Rueben Bain Jr. (19 percent) had previously been a leader here, followed by Tate (14 percent).

The Chiefs traded All-Pro corner Trent McDuffie and let Jaylon Watson walk in free agency, putting them in need of a corner. Delane (18 percent) would fit the bill, although he is behind Fano (19 percent) in probability at Kalshi’s NFL Draft market. 

The Giants round out the top 10 with their second pick in the top 10. Assuming they opt for Styles over Downs at five, they could have a chance to double-dip and still end up with Downs (26 percent) if he falls. Tyson (24 percent) is just behind and is a hot riser, while the next-closest individual, Mauigoa (11 percent), is a considerable distance behind.

Market prices are accurate as of the time of publishing and subject to change before the event.

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