Since Connor McDavid made his return from injury, the Edmonton Oilers offense have steadily climbed up the board in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Heading into Monday, the Oilers offense have the opportunity to build on their momentum as they face off against a Montreal Canadiens back line who ranks near dead last in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play.
Shortly after their puck drop, we turn our attention towards the Dallas Stars as they look to continue their ascension up the Central division standings with a favorable matchup against the Anaheim Ducks. The Stars back line have started to round back into form after a prolonged cold stretch of play, giving Dallas the ability to limit opposing scoring opportunities while their own offense builds up a sizable lead.
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After entering the year as the betting favorite to win the Stanley Cup, the Edmonton Oilers have finally looked the part as they currently rank near the top of the board in both Expected Goals For and Expected Goals Against in All Situations. They also avoided disaster after Connor McDavid suffered an ankle injury as the future hall of famer managed to make his return two weeks ahead of schedule after it was initially reported he would be out for up to three weeks.
At full strength, the Oilers have the opportunity to make a statement on Monday night as they face off against the Montreal Canadiens who struggle to generate production on both sides of the ice. The Canadiens low mark in Expected Goals For bodes well for the Oilers as their starting goaltender Stuart Skinner has underwhelmed this season by averaging 3.28 Goals Against per game. Should you want to back the Oilers to win straight up instead, then use them in a two team moneyline parlay with the Houston Texans.
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Since making his return to the ice, McDavid has wasted no time in his efforts of generating offensive production as he is currently averaging 0.62 Expected Goals and 3.80 Shots on Goal per game. Against Montreal’s defense, McDavid will have the opportunity to generate more shots towards the net as the Canadiens back line struggles with smothering opposing shot attempts as their low mark in Expected Goals Against indicates.
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Like the Oilers, the Dallas Stars have also started to look like a championship contender as of late after entering the year listed as one of the betting favorites to win the Stanley Cup. Their defense rounding back into form has played a major role in their turnaround as their back line finally ranks in the top half of the board in Expected Goals Against in All Situations after a horrific cold stretch of play.
With Vezina Trophy contender Jake Oettinger and Casey DeSmith finally getting the production they need from their back line to help maintain their high marks in Goals Against per game and Save Percentage, the Stars have the opportunity to slow down the Ducks offense while their own front line builds up a sizable lead. Especially with the Ducks back line continuing to severely underwhelm as their defense enters the contest ranked 32nd in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play.
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Correlating this prop with the Stars puck line, Tyler Seguin has excelled at pressuring opposing goalies this season as he continues to lead the team in Expected Goals with an average of 0.41 Expected Goals per game. As the focal point of their offense when their second line hits the ice, Seguin should build on his high mark in Expected Goals by exploiting the gaps in the Ducks coverage and generate high quality Shots on Goal towards their net.
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