At 16-3-0, the Winnipeg Jets odds to win the Presidents’ Trophy continue to grow as we get deeper into the season. Their hot start to the year can be attributed to their defense as the Jets rank fourth overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Heading into Friday, every bit of their defensive production will be on full display as they attempt to slow down the explosive Pittsburgh Penguins front line.
Later in the night, we turn our attention towards the only other game on the slate as the Buffalo Sabres are set to face off against the Anaheim Ducks. Defense may be optional in this contest as both clubs currently rank well below league average in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Even if Buffalo’s star center Tage Thompson has to sit out while rehabbing an injury, the Sabres should have no issue with generating high quality Shots on Goal against the horrific Ducks defense.
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Not only has Winnipeg’s odds to win the Presidents’ Trophy drastically grown, but the Jets continue to climb up the oddsboard for the Stanley Cup as well. As of writing, Winnipeg is currently one of the few teams in the league who rank above league average in both Expected Goals For and Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Against Pittsburgh, the Jets offense will have the opportunity to match their elite level of defensive production as the Penguins average 3.44 Expected Goals Against per game.
With Winnipeg’s offense in a position to consistently pressure Pittsburgh’s net, the spotlight turns towards their defense as they are tasked with having to defend against a Penguins front line who ranks sixth overall in Expected Goals For. Fortunately for Winnipeg, Vezina Trophy contender Connor Hellebuyck has continued to play at a high level as he is averaging just 2.20 Goals Against per game. With his high level of individual production in net, expect the Penguins to struggle to match the Jets scoring pace.
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With the Penguins defense ranking near dead last in Expected Goals Against in All Situations, the Jets front line should receive an uptick in shot attempts to help generate more Shots on Goal. That bodes well for Nino Niederreiter who enters the contest leading the team in Expected Goals while averaging 2.16 Shots on Goal per game. With the Jets offense in a position to increase their time spent inside the Penguins zone, expect Niederreiter to generate a high volume of shots towards their net.
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Even without Tage Thompson, the Buffalo Sabres offense will have the opportunity to generate a high amount of Shots on Goal as they face off against an Anaheim Ducks back line who ranks dead last in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Even with Lukas Dostal averaging just 2.69 Goals Against per game, Anaheim has been prone to high variance contests as their back line gives their goaltending minimal support.
Speaking of defense, the Sabres back line continues to regress as they rank 25th overall in the same previously mentioned metric. That bodes well for the Ducks offense as they have had to mask their lack of defensive production by generating a high amount of Shots on Goal to remain competitive in their contests, heading into the matchup ranked 12th overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Expect a high scoring affair between the two clubs, giving us an exciting conclusion to Friday’s slate.
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While Olen Zellweger has struggled in his efforts of generating high quality scoring opportunities as his low mark in Expected Goals indicates, that has not stopped him from being aggressive as he also averages over two Shots on Goal per game. With the Sabres back line giving their net minimal coverage, expect Zellweger’s aggressiveness to result in more Shots on Goal while firing the puck from the blue line.
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