Best NHL Prop Bets Today: Back the Panthers Offense in a Must Win Situation

With Toronto’s defense struggling to defend their net, the Florida Panthers revamped offense are in a position to thrive as their versatility will help open up gaps in the Maple Leafs coverage. A few hours after their puck drop, we turn our attention towards the matchup between Chicago and Colorado as Mackenzie Blackwood has the opportunity to sustain his hot stretch of play by walling off the anemic Blackhawks offense.

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Florida Panthers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs - Prop Bets (7:30 PM, EST)

Florida Panthers Team Total Over 2.5 (-145) at BetMGM Sportsbook

With the Toronto Maple Leafs possessing a two point lead over the Florida Panthers in the Atlantic division standings, the reigning Stanley Cup champions are in a must win situation should they want to keep their division title hopes alive. Winning the division gives you a major advantage in the playoffs as the winner of the Atlantic will face off against a wildcard team instead of a division rival. A massive difference in quality of opponent as the Tampa Bay Lightning are far better than the current wildcard contenders.

In order for the Panthers to secure the win and close the gap between them and Toronto for first in the division standings, their offense must take advantage of the Maple Leafs lack of coverage as their back line ranks 24th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Especially with Anthony Stolarz projected to get the start for Toronto as the Maple Leafs star goalie is averaging just 2.35 Goals Against per game and a .919 Save Percentage.

Fortunately for Florida, their offense possesses more than enough playmakers to stretch out the Maple Leafs coverage and open up higher quality shooting lanes in front of Stolarz’s net as six players average more than 0.30 Expected Goals per game. Their spread out attack will also keep Stolarz constantly shifting across the ice, potentially creating a gap in his net for the Panthers to exploit on a one timer. Should the Panthers team total climb up to a flat three, then reduce the size of your wager.

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Oliver Ekman-Larsson Under 1.5 Shots on Goal (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

On the other side of the ice, the Panthers back line have played at a high level this season as their defense ranks top-10 in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Their ability to smother shots before it reaches their net spells disaster for Oliver Ekman-Larsson as the Maple Leafs defenseman will find it tough to generate Shots on Goal from a distance. Especially when he already struggles to send high quality shots from the blue line as Ekman-Larsson averages just 0.07 Expected Goals per game.

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Colorado Avalanche vs. Chicago Blackhawks - Prop Bets (9:30 PM, EST)

Chicago Blackhawks Team Total Under 2.5 (-155) at BetMGM Sportsbook

While the Panthers rank near the top of the board in Expected Goals For in All Situations, the Chicago Blackhawks find themselves on the opposite end as they average just 2.46 Expected Goals per game. Their struggles on offense stems from their lack of versatility, especially with Connor Bedard struggling to take a much needed leap with his production as the former Calder Memorial Trophy winner and first overall pick is averaging just 0.23 Expected Goals and 2.36 Shots on Goal per game.

Against Colorado, the Blackhawks struggles on offense are poised to persist as they face off against an Avs back line who ranks second overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Their coverage has helped Mackenzie Blackwood turn his season around as the former San Jose Shark has climbed up to as high as sixth in average Goals Against per game. With Chicago’s offense struggling to pressure the net, expect Blackwood to sustain his high level of play and put together another dominant performance.

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Valeri Nichushkin Anytime Goalscorer (+140) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Although Colorado’s offense has underperformed per their preseason projections, that has not stopped Valeri Nichushkin from generating high quality Shots on Goal as the Avs forward averages 0.45 Expected Goals per game. Even with Spencer Knight in net, the former Panther goalie is as vulnerable as ever as his back line fails to give him the protection he needs to help consistently wall off opposing shot attempts. Back Nichushkin to exploit their gaps in coverage and score his 20th goal of the season.

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