Best NHL Prop Bets Today: Target a Team Total Under in a Pivotal Game Six

Even though the Winnipeg Jets have yet to announce who their starting goalie is for game six, expect either Connor Hellebuyck or Eric Comrie to hold St. Louis under their team total as negative regression looms large over the Blues offense. Especially with the Jets back line excelling in coverage as their defense ranks near the top of the board in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play.

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Winnipeg Jets vs. St. Louis Blues - Prop Bets (8:00 PM, EST)

St. Louis Blues Team Total Under 2.5 (-105) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Heading into the playoffs, the Winnipeg Jets back line were regarded as one of the best units in the league as they finished the regular season ranked second overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 2.82 Expected Goals Against per game. Their coverage helped Connor Hellebuyck sustain a high level of play throughout the year as the reigning Vezina Trophy winner led the league in average Goals Against per game while generating a .925 Save Percentage.

Unfortunately for the Presidents’ Trophy winners, their defense has struggled to sustain their high level of play in the playoffs as the St. Louis Blues are averaging over three goals per game. A stunning performance from Winnipeg’s defense, especially when factoring in how poor the Blues have been at generating high quality Shots on Goal as their front line ranks 31st in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Other than Jordan Kyrou, no one on the Blues roster averages more than 0.30 Expected Goals per game.

Even though the Blues offense have managed to score at a high rate, negative regression looms large per their marks in Expected Goals. In their five games, the Blues have generated an Expected Goal of 2.88, 2.31, 3.13, 1.57, and 1.82. With the Jets back line smothering their shot attempts at a consistent rate, expect the Jets goaltending to round back into form and wall off their low quality Shots on Goal. No matter who gets the start in net for Winnipeg, place a full size wager on the Blues to go under their team total.

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Neal Pionk Under 1.5 Shots on Goal (+100) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Like the Jets, the St. Louis Blues defense have also excelled in coverage as their back line ranks fourth overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Their coverage lessens the width of Winnipeg’s shooting lanes which drastically reduces the quality of Neal Pionk’s shot attempts from the blue line. Expect the Jets defenseman to continue to struggle with generating Shots on Goal as the Blues traffic in front of their net will halt the puck before it reaches their goaltender.

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