Best NHL Prop Bets Today: Positive Regression Looms Large Over the Red Wings

With the Buffalo Sabres back line struggling to shift their coverage across the ice, positive regression looms large over the Detroit Red Wings who excel at pressuring the net. At the same time as their puck drop, Mika Zibanejad is in a favorable position to score by taking advantage of a Chicago Blackhawks back line who ranks near the bottom of the board in most defensive metrics.

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Detroit Red Wings vs. Buffalo Sabres - Prop Bets (7:00 PM, EST)

With Detroit one point back from Ottawa for the last spot in the wildcard standings, the Red Wings must quickly round back into form if they want to keep their hopes of making the playoffs alive.

Detroit Red Wings Team Total Over 2.5 (-145) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Since the start of the regular season, the Buffalo Sabres odds of winning the Presidents’ Trophy have skyrocketed as they are just eight points back from Colorado for first in the overall standings. While their offense has been able to play at a high level, their defense has held them back from being a well rounded unit, fielding a back line who ranks well below league average in Expected Goals Against in All Situations.

Unfortunately for the Sabres, their struggles on defense will be on full display in Friday night’s matchup against the Detroit Red Wings as they face off against an offense who ranks in the top-15 in Expected Goals For in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play. Especially with Dylan Larkin back from injury, giving the Red Wings more versatility to help stretch out the Sabres back line, widening the width of their gaps in coverage in front of the net.

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Alex DeBrincat Anytime Goal Scorer (+160) at BetMGM Sportsbook

While Larkin was out with an injury, Alex DeBrincat was able to keep the Red Wings competitive by averaging 0.45 Expected Goals and 3.51 Shots on Goal per game. With Larkin back on the ice, DeBrincat will benefit from the wider shooting lanes his teammate creates when he pulls defensive attention away from him, improving the quality of his Shots on Goal in front of the crease when he blitzes through their underwhelming back line.

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Chicago Blackhawks vs. New York Rangers - Prop Bets (7:00 PM, EST)

With Chicago’s front line struggling to pressure the net, Igor Shesterkin will be able to keep a clean sheet and hold the Blackhawks under their team total.

Chicago Blackhawks Team Total Under 2.5 (-105) at BetMGM Sportsbook

It has been an abysmal year for the New York Rangers who are currently 28-35-9 and in last place in the Eastern Conference standings. Their lack of production on defense brings in a high amount of negative variance into their contests, ranking near dead last in Expected Goals Against in All Situations.

Heading into Friday night, the Rangers will have a great opportunity to bounce back in their matchup against the Chicago Blackhawks, bottling up a front line who ranks 31st in Expected Goals For in All Situations. With his back line smothering the Blackhawks shot attempts, expect Igor Shesterkin to consistently wall them off as the former Vezina Trophy winner is averaging just 2.59 Goals Against per game and a .911 Save Percentage.

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Mika Zibanejad Anytime Goal Scorer (+165) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Even when receiving minimal support from his linemates, Mika Zibanejad has been able to thrive, averaging 0.36 Expected Goals per game. With the Blackhawks back line hovering near the bottom of the board in Expected Goals Against From High Danger Shots, Zibanejad will be able to generate a higher volume of Shots on Goal in front of the net which increases his chances of lighting the lamp.

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