On Tuesday the group stage phase will conclude as the United States will clash against Guinea in their third and final match in the opening round. The hostilities will take place at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Saint-Étienne. A win for the Americans on Tuesday would solidify their spot into the knockout stage for the first time since the 2000 summer games in Sydney Australia.
U.S.A. took advantage facing a less inferior opponent soundly defeating New Zealand 4-1 on Saturday. In the men’s U.S. Olympic program history, it was the biggest margin of victory, with four different players hitting the scoresheet. The Yanks dominated the shot category as they fired away 22 total shots toward the target versus the Kiwis nine.
Meanwhile, Guinea are coming off a hard-fought battle against the hosts, losing 1-0 over the weekend. With the defeat it virtually eliminated Guinea from seeking any aspirations to get into the quarterfinals. France outshot Guinea 14 to 12 while controlling most of the possession with 53 percent.
Here, we will break down the betting odds and share our favourite picks for USA vs. Guinea.
The books have placed the Americans as the team to most likely walk away with all three points in their pocket on Tuesday. U.S.A. is listed at -173 on the moneyline to secure the win. Guinea are priced as huge underdogs at +425 to pull off the major upset while both clubs to share the points the draw is pegged at +300.
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Putting in a man-of-the-match display against New Zealand was the 20-year-old Paxton Aaronson. The loaned-out Eintracht Frankfurt product netted home his first goal in the 2024 Paris game in the 58th minute which ended up being the United States final goal of the match. In his 90-minute performance, he finished with the most chances created in the match with three and made the most successful tackles with two.
Gianluca Busio had a bittersweet performance while he registered his first goal of the tournament, he also left with an apparent injury in the 36th minute. His timetable to return is unknown, but for the sake of the American squad, the hope is it isn’t too serious as Busio is a key member of the roster. With Venezia in Serie B last year, the 22-year-old amassed seven goals and five assists in 41 appearances.
It’s been a learning experience for this Guinea program as this was their first-ever Olympic qualification in men’s soccer. This side is making strides as they finished 4th in the U-23 Africa Nations Cup in 2023. Getting placed in the same group with the hosts and the U.S. was always going to be an uphill battle for the debutants.
After two matches into the competition, Guinea only has one member on its roster to get on the score sheet. The veteran midfielder Amadou Diawara bagged his goal against New Zealand in their 2-1 defeat. Diawara has a plethora of competitive experience in one of the top leagues of the world, in Italy's Serie A he has 175 games under his belt. With Anderlecht this previous campaign, he made 11 appearances and was left off the scorers’ sheet with no goal contributions.
USA. vs. Guinea pick: Moneyline 3-way (-173) at BetMGM
Guinea have competitively held their own in their opening two matches, giving New Zealand and France issues, but just lack that clinical skill to put them over the top. U.S.A. know securing a win will get them to advance to the elimination stage, think we will get another top performance from them. This U.S. team has an abundance of its roster playing in MLS or across competitive leagues across Europe, giving them the edge when it comes to in-game management. Look for the Americans to nab a victory on Tuesday punching their ticket to the quarterfinals.
When: Tuesday, July 30, 1 p.m ET
Where: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard
TV: NBC Sports, Peacock
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