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Pick: Los Angeles Thieves to win.
This should be a tight contest between two of the best teams in the CDL. When the two sides met in the Major 4 Grand Finals last year, Los Angeles Thieves (LA Thieves) came out on top 5-3. The odds table is also favoring LA Thieves, which shouldn’t come as a surprise, considering LA Thieves are ahead of the Subliners on the league table.
The LA Thieves have amassed 255 points in 28 matches this season. They’ve won 24 and lost 14 of their matches. The New York Subliners, on the other hand, have amassed 225 points in 36 matches this season. They’ve won 22 games and lost 14.
From these figures, it can be ascertained that there isn’t a tremendous difference in the win rates of the two sides. The Subliners have a win rate of 61%, and the Thieves have a win rate of 63%.
The Thieves don’t have the most valuable odds, so it might be tempting to pick the Subliners in this match, considering there isn’t a massive difference between the two sides on the points table, but this looks like a match-up that suits LA Thieves, and recent matches confirm that. It’s best to go safe with the LA Thieves for this one.
The New York Subliners will have their hands full this weekend against a strong LA Thieves side, but this is also an excellent opportunity for the Subliners to show that they belong in the elite. There is a clear quality gap between the top five teams in the league and those below the top five. Seattle Surge, sitting one place below the New York Subliners, have got just 180 points and a 52% win rate this season.
The next step for this team is winning the big matches. They have shown signs of being a top team this season. They’re comfortable on most game modes, even though their form on Search & Destroy could use some refinement.
They have a win-loss record of 25-27 in this game mode. An improvement here could make all the difference. PaulEhx is a real positive for the Subliners on Search & Destroy. He averages 0.72 kills per round, with an exceptional KD of 1.13. Crimsix, in contrast, has struggled in this game mode, with a KD of 0.89 and 0.62 kills per round.
Their record on Hard Point, with 42 wins and 30 losses this season, is as good as anyone’s in the league. The record on Control isn’t too bad either, with 22 wins and 20 losses this season. HyDra has been incredible in this game mode, with 20.9 kills per 10 minutes and a KD of 1.13. The Subliners have one supreme talent in each mode. If the rest of the team can support these players adequately, they are a match for anyone.
The LA Thieves were outstanding last year, with wins in the CDL Champs and Major 4. Their successes were also great for the league as they broke the dominance of OpTic Texas and Atlanta FaZe. They’ve done reasonably well this season, with a win rate of 63% and a third-place standing, but there’s a feeling among CDL fans and media that they can top the table.
Like New York Subliners, their one weakness is the Search & Destroy mode. They have a win-loss record of 33-34 on this map, which isn’t bad, but to get to the top, they can’t have a win rate below 50% in any mode.
Part of the reason for this is Kenny’s form on this mode. He has an overall KD of 0.90 on this mode and 0.66 kills per round. This isn’t enough for a side like the Thieves. His record on the other modes is much better, but not good enough to compensate for his weaknesses on this mode.
This weakness shouldn’t be a problem in this tie, as the Subliners have the same issue, but it could be a problem in the long run.
Teams: New York Subliners vs Los Angeles Thieves
Location: United States of America
Time: Sunday, May 7, 2023
How to watch: Twitch
With an interest in strategy and mathematics, applying that to sports writing was the natural progression. A writer at night and the founder of a gaming company, Nikhil’s previous experience includes working with ESPN for five years. His specialization includes soccer, basketball, tennis, and esports betting. Email: [email protected]More info on Nikhil Kalro
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