Champions League Best Bets: Semi-Finals Second Legs, 28-29 April 2026

The knockout phase of the 2025/26 Champions League resumes this week, as the four remaining teams contest the first legs of the semi-finals.

• Paris Saint-Germain host Bayern Munich at the Parc des Princes on Tuesday

• Arsenal head to the Spanish capital to take on Atletico Madrid on Wednesday

Champions League Semi-Finals Odds

The odds for the Champions League semi-finals contained in this article are taken from BetRivers. Sign up with promo code SPORTS and claim your welcome bonus: $500 Bonus Bet.

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Paris Saint-Germain vs. Bayern Munich

Draw (+290) at BetRivers

Many people have labelled this tie the ‘final before the final’. Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich may well be the best two teams in Europe right now, but only one of them will be involved in the tournament showpiece. The good news for neutrals is that we get to see PSG and Bayern go at it over two legs totaling at least 180 minutes of soccer. What a treat that is.

This one is hard to call. Bayern will draw confidence from the fact they beat PSG away from home in the league phase, although it must be said that Luis Enrique’s side have improved since then. Moreover, the Parisians showed last term that they have what it takes to go all the way in Europe.

It is hard to see either team running away with this tie. PSG and Bayern are both likely to have spells where they are on top, and it may ultimately come down to who does a better job of taking their chances. We would not be surprised if the score was level after 90 minutes on Tuesday.

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Over 11.5 Shots on Target (-103) at BetRivers

Paris Saint-Germain scored four goals across two matches against Liverpool in the last round, while Bayern Munich put six goals past Real Madrid in the two legs of their quarter-final. Vincent Kompany’s team have already broken the Bundesliga record for the most goals in a season, so their attacking quality is not in doubt. PSG also possess plenty of firepower in the final third, much as they did on their way to Champions League glory last term.

Luis Enrique and Vincent Kompany are two offense-minded managers, so neither PSG nor Bayern will stand off on Tuesday. That should produce an entertaining encounter between two teams who play some of the best soccer on the continent.

Over 11.5 shots on target looks like a good value wager at the odds mentioned above. By way of comparison, there were 11 shots on target when PSG beat Liverpool 2-0 last time out, and 14 when Bayern overcame Real Madrid 4-3 at the Allianz Arena.

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Atletico Madrid vs. Arsenal

Atletico Madrid to Win (+195) at BetRivers

Atletico Madrid and Arsenal have at least one thing in common: neither team has ever won the Champions League before. Atletico hold the unwanted record of final appearances without lifting the trophy, having finished as runners-up on three occasions - including in 2014 and 2016. Arsenal were beaten finalists in 2006, but they have not made it back to the biggest game in European soccer since then.

Could they do so this season? There is a danger that Arsenal are limping over the finish line in 2025/26. They only just scraped past Sporting CP in the last round, winning 1-0 on aggregate. It increasingly looks like Arsenal peaked too early this term. They topped the league phase but have been mediocre for much of 2026.

Atletico Madrid eliminated Barcelona in the last eight and, unlike Arsenal, the only thing they have to focus on is the Champions League. The Riyadh Air Metropolitano has been a fortress for Atletico in recent years, so we fancy the home team to come out on top.

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Under 2.5 Goals (-134) at BetRivers

The long-time cliche about Atletico Madrid is that they are a defense-first side that excels at keeping opponents out. But that is no longer so accurate these days. Even Diego Simeone admitted after his team’s last Champions League game that Atletico are often better going forward than they are at the back these days.

Simeone is still not a coach who lionizes possession, but he has evolved with the times and his Atletico side take more risks these days. However, the Colchoneros may end up reverting to type in a high-stakes game like this one on Wednesday. Given Arsenal are also a tactically cautious side, goals could be on the low end here.

That does not mean this will not be an enthralling encounter. It will be hard-fought and, in all likelihood, pretty even, but we do not envisage an end-to-end thriller with goals aplenty. In fact, we might only see two at most in the Spanish capital.

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