Champions League Best Bets: Semi-Finals Second Legs, 5-6 May 2026

The knockout phase of the 2025/26 Champions League continues this week, as the four remaining teams contest the second legs of the semi-finals. Who will go through?

• Arsenal host Atletico Madrid in a Premier League vs La Liga encounter

• Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain will do battle at the Allianz Arena

Champions League Semi-Finals Odds

The odds for the Champions League semi-finals contained in this article are taken from BetRivers. Sign up with promo code SPORTS and claim your welcome bonus: $500 Bonus Bet.

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Bayern Munich vs. Paris Saint-Germain

Bayern Munich to Qualify (-103) at BetRivers

What an extraordinary game Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich played out last week. The first leg of this semi-final was one of the greatest matches in Champions League history, as PSG edged out Bayern 5-4 at the Parc des Princes. There are two questions to ask: which of these sides will triumph from here, and will it be more of the same ultra-attacking soccer from two offense-minded outfits?

Let us start with the first question. It is easy enough to make a case for either PSG or Bayern, but with home advantage to come and just one goal to make up, we lean towards the Bundesliga champions. Bayern have been sensational for much of 2025/26, and although their midfield is weaker than PSG’s, they have the attacking talent to overcome Luis Enrique’s side. 

We expect Bayern to be Champions League finalists, either by winning after 90 minutes, 120 minutes or on penalties. The ‘to qualify’ market covers all three eventualities.

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Over 3.5 Goals (-182) at BetRivers

Luis Enrique and Vincent Kompany have both already hinted that they will not take a backwards step on Wednesday, so we can look forward to another enthralling game of soccer. These are the two best attacking sides in club soccer right now, and neither has shown any inclination to ease off and adopt a more defensive approach. That is certainly good news for the neutrals.

Nevertheless, we will probably not see quite as many goals in the second leg. The finishing last time out was remarkably accurate, as PSG and Bayern shared nine goals from 22 shots. That sort of scoring rate is unsustainable, even for such quality forwards.

Over 3.5 goals does not offer the same level of return as over 4.5 goals, but we reckon it strikes the right balance between risk and reward. This promises to be another entertaining encounter between Bayern Munich and PSG, but perhaps the second encounter at the Allianz Arena will not be quite as goal-laden as the first.

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Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid

Draw (+300) at BetRivers

This Champions League semi-final is similarly delicately poised at the midway point after a 1-1 draw at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano last week. Arsenal were the better team in the first half of the first leg, but Atletico Madrid came on strong after the break and deserved a draw in the end. But with the second leg set to take place at the Emirates Stadium, Arsenal are now the favorites to advance to the final from this last-four clash.

The draw is often overpriced in soccer betting, making it an appealing option - and we reckon it is worth taking it up on this occasion. Arsenal are a better team than Atletico Madrid overall, but they have looked tired in recent weeks and are trying to juggle a Premier League title race with their European campaign.

Atletico can avoid defeat in 90 minutes, but they may not have enough to win themselves. Extra time, and possible penalties, may well be required in north London.

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Under 2.5 Goals (-121) at BetRivers

Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal was always going to struggle to live up to Paris Saint-Germain 5-4 Bayern Munich, but the first leg was an intriguing game in its own right. The second match should be too, but it is likely to again be tighter and lower scoring than the other semi-final, partly because of the nature of the two managers.

Mikel Arteta has grown more risk averse over the last couple of years. Diego Simeone has arguably moved in the other direction, but in a high-stakes affair like this one, Atletico will not simply throw caution in the wind. Any goal that is scored on Tuesday will have been well earned.

Under 2.5 goals is our second selection for this English vs Spanish clash. Arsenal will look to make a fast start in front of their own fans, with Atletico Madrid happily ceding possession before attempting to break forward at speed. Defenses will probably end up getting the better of offenses at the Emirates Stadium.

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