La Liga 2021 Top Scorer Prediction, Odds and Picks

La Liga Top Scorers

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La Liga Top Scorer Odds

Player Odds
Lionel Messi -305
Luis Suarez +250
Karim Benzema +2000
Gerard Moreno +2200
Youssef En-Nesyri +5000
Alexander Isak +6600
Iago Aspas +15000
Mikel Oyarzabal +15000

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La Liga Top Scorer Predictions and Picks

Lionel Messi is the favorite to win the Pichichi award that is given to La Liga’s top scorer. He has picked up the prize in each of the last four seasons, and on seven occasions throughout his entire career. That is a record, ahead of Athletic Bilbao legend Telmo Zarra on six.

However, the smart money this year is on Luis Suarez. A former team-mate of Messi’s, the Uruguay international is on a mission to show that Barcelona got it wrong by selling him last summer. The Atletico Madrid man is just one goal behind Messi in the current rankings, and odds of +250 are attractive.


Suarez to finish as La Liga top scorer this season.

How to Watch La Liga

La Liga Information
What 2020/21 La Liga season
Where Spain
When Now – 23 May 2021
How to Watch beIN SPORTS

Lionel Messi as Prolific as Ever Despite His Advancing Years

Messi was offered at -200 before the start of the campaign, and his position at the top of the scoring charts with 12 rounds of fixtures remaining has seen those odds shorten to -305. DraftKings Sportsbook clearly thinks the Argentine will score more goals than anyone else this term, and it is hard to question their logic given his consistency for over a decade.

Messi is no longer the force he once was. He cannot run games from start to finish week after week anymore. He does not press from the front these days and instead conserves his energy for the moments that matter. That has allowed him to maintain his effectiveness in and around the penalty area, as demonstrated by a return of 19 goals in 24 games in 2020/21. The Barcelona legend might not break the 30-mark this term, but his rate of 0.79 goals per game is still hugely impressive.

Messi remains Barcelona’s biggest goal threat, and despite their struggles at times this season, the Blaugrana are still La Liga’s top scorers. They are in excellent form too and could push Atletico close for the title if they maintain their current level of performance. With Messi taking virtually all of Barcelona’s penalties and free-kicks, he will have ample chances to boost his tally from set-pieces as well as open play.

Yet a price of -305 is unappealing. It is not long enough to offer true value, yet the likelihood of Messi winning the race is not so certain as to make the bet a guaranteed success. Messi deserves to be the favorite to finish as top scorer, but that does not mean you should back him.

Editor’s Picks

Luis Suarez Is Spearheading Atletico Madrid’s Title Charge

Instead, have a wager on Suarez beating his close friend and former team-mate to the honor, just as he did when they were playing alongside each other at the Camp Nou in 2015/16.

In our pre-season prediction about La Liga’s top scorer, Suarez was not an option given he was seemingly on the verge of joining Juventus. That move fell through, however, and although it was clear that Barcelona had decided to sell the Uruguayan come what may, it was still a surprise to see him end up at Atletico. If Suarez scores the goals to fire Diego Simeone’s side to title glory – as is looking likely right now – that transfer will have been confirmed as a huge mistake on Barca’s part.

Suarez is just one goal behind Messi, having found the net 18 times to date. He has been particularly prolific in 2021, with 10 goals in 12 La Liga appearances since the turn of the year. Suarez takes penalties for Simeone’s team, and Atletico are scoring more goals and playing more attacking soccer than usual this season. His vast experience suggests he will not freeze as the finish line comes into sight.

Atletico were always going to need a striker last summer, and they would not have let Alvaro Morata join Juventus had they not acquired one. They may nevertheless have hoped for a bigger contribution from Joao Felix this term, with the Portuguese attacker having only scored seven goals.

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Gerard Moreno, Karim Benzema, and Youssef en-Nesyri Are Outsiders

Karim Benzema was second in the odds ranking before the start of the season, but he has drifted from +400 to +2000. The Real Madrid marksman was his team’s best player last term, scoring 21 goals to help Zinedine Zidane’s side win the title.

The former France international has found the net on 13 occasions this time around, but Madrid is simply not creating enough chances to envision Benzema – who has never been the freest of scorers anyway – making up the gap to Messi and Suarez.

Gerard Moreno and Youssef En-Nesyri are in slightly more favorable positions, although both players remain clear outsiders in the battle to finish as La Liga top scorer. Moreno has scored 15 goals already and is better placed to challenge for the Pichichi, although Villarreal’s recent form is a major concern. The Spaniard’s goalscoring has held up pretty well in recent weeks, but that might not last if his team continues to drop points.

En-Nesyri is two goals behind Moreno, and he may yet overtake the Villarreal frontman. His scoring record is arguably more impressive than Moreno’s, given that the Moroccan forward has started only 14 matches in La Liga this season. With Sevilla out of the Champions League, they could be poised to focus on domestic matters – although that will not be enough for En-Nesyri to finish as top scorer.

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Greg Lea

Expert on Soccer

Greg Lea is a freelance soccer journalist from London. He is the former editor of The Set Pieces, and has contributed to the Guardian, FourFourTwo, and ESPN. A Crystal Palace fan, he is a long-time subscriber to the belief that it's the taking part that counts.

Email: [email protected]