La Liga 2020/21 Relegation Prediction, Odds and Picks
- Huesca and Elche remain the two favorites to go down following the promotion
- Real Valladolid, Eibar, Alaves and Cadiz are all in the dogfight to avoid demotion
- The battle to avoid the drop in La Liga is much tighter than in other European leagues
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La Liga Relegation Odds
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La Liga Relegation Predictions and Picks
If you are looking for late-season relegation drama in a major European league, Spain’s top tier is the place to go. While Sheffield United are cut adrift in the Premier League and Schalke are near-certainties to go down in the Bundesliga, no one is doomed just yet in La Liga. There are three relegation spaces to be filled and as many as 10 teams fighting to avoid them.
Elche is not bottom right now, but they deserve to be favorites for the drop. There is not much value in backing them to succumb, however, so look at Cadiz and Alaves as well. The former are dropping like a stone and concede too many goals, while the latter might not score enough goals to survive.
How to Watch La Liga
|La Liga Information|
|What||2020/21 La Liga season|
|When||Now – 23 May 2021|
|How to Watch||beIN Sports|
Bookmakers Spot on With Pre-Season Tips as Huesca and Elche Struggle
Before a ball had been kicked this season, DraftKings Sportsbook listed Elche and Huesca as their two favorites for the drop at a price of -154 each. They have been proved right. The two promoted teams were always likely to struggle in La Liga this term, and they both sit in the relegation zone as the business end of the campaign approaches. They have won just seven matches between them, the same amount as Getafe in 13th place. Staying up will be a tall order for both.
Having said that, Huesca’s prospects look brighter than Elche’s. That might be a puzzling assessment at first glance; after all, Elche are one place and one point better off, and also have a game in hand on the last-placed side.
Yet whereas Huesca have improved as the season has gone on, Elche are beginning to run out of steam. They were eighth in the table after seven games, but have won just one of their last 19 outings. They are La Liga’s tie specialists and do not emerge victorious often enough to stay in the division.
Huesca, conversely, have shown signs of revival. They have only lost two of their last six matches, with new manager Pacheta having made a tangible difference since his appointment in the middle of January. Huesca are tougher to play against these days, while they are also improving in attack – they have failed to find the net in just one of their last five games, a slender 1-0 defeat by Champions League-chasing Sevilla. Huesca may be rock-bottom but they have more momentum on their side than Elche, and that could prove pivotal.
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Cadiz’s Cushion Above the Bottom Three Could Be Quickly Eroded
Cadiz were the third-favorites for relegation last summer, with DraftKings Sportsbook offering -139 on them going down. Those odds have since risen to +250, which looks a little too high given how poorly they have been playing of late. Bettors should take advantage of that generous price by backing Cadiz to finish in the bottom three.
Alvaro Cervera’s side drew 1-1 with Barcelona last month, but they were fortunate to pick up a point at the Camp Nou. That was their best result for a while, with Cadiz having lost five of their last six games. They are too reliant on Alvaro Negredo, who is now 35 years of age, for goals, and are not creating good enough chances. Indeed, the Expected Goals table, which measures the quality of opportunities a team fashions, has Cadiz third-bottom ahead of only Getafe and Elche.
Alaves also look vulnerable. They have lost more games than any other team in La Liga this season, while only Cadiz have conceded more goals. Abelardo has made little impact since taking charge in January, with only one victory to his name so far.
Real Valladolid are third-favorites to go down, but there is reason to believe they can avoid the trapdoor. Granted, Valladolid – who are owned by the legendary former Brazilian striker Ronaldo – are on a dire run of form, having not won any of their last eight fixtures. Four of those matches have been ties, though, and Valladolid look to have the grit and resolve to stay out of the relegation zone. The same can be said of Eibar, who have vast experience of successfully battling against the drop.
Valencia Enduring a Difficult Campaign but Should Be Safe
Valencia are enduring a difficult campaign, having been forced to place virtually their entire squad up for sale last summer. Fans of the club believe only Barcelona and Real Madrid are bigger in Spanish soccer, so it is ignominious for los Che to be toiling in the bottom half of the table. Relegation, the ultimate indignity, appears unlikely, though. Valencia are five points clear and still have plenty of quality within their ranks.
DraftKings Sportsbook offer +1400 on Getafe and Osasuna going down, which feels about right. Getafe have punched above their weight in recent seasons but are down in the bottom half this time around, although relegation is not a genuine concern. The same is true of Osasuna, who are in excellent form and will not yet have given up hope of breaking into the top 10. The lengthy odds available on Celta Vigo, Granada and Levante are not worth taking up either.
The relegation race in La Liga could go right down to the wire, with six teams separated by just five points at the time of writing. It will be well worth watching, and backing Elche, Alaves and Cadiz to finish in the drop zone means it could be profitable too.