Liga MX Apertura 2023 Winner Outrights - Odds, Prediction, and Best Picks

The Apertura 2023 season has almost reached its midway point and, as always, there are plenty of surprises considering the placement of clubs in the rankings table. Atletico de San Luis are the current league leaders. The club has never won the Liga MX title in its history and could be aiming for it once the playoffs commence. 

Defending Liga MX champions Tigres UANL are looking to win back-to-back titles after winning the Clausura 2023 title almost four months ago. As things stand, the club is just two points off San Luis. Meanwhile, 13-time Liga MX champions Club America are dangling in sixth place and can move up into the top four if they win their game in hand.

Liga MX Apertura 2023 Winner - Outrights

Odds taken from bet365

Despite being at the top of the table with five wins in seven games, San Luis have not been picked among the favorites to win the Apertura 2023 by the bookmakers. The playoffs are a different ball game altogether and San Luis’ inexperience in that phase could cause them to crumble under critical pressure.

The bookmakers have backed arch-rivals Tigres UANL and CF Monterrey with the best outright odds for the Apertura 2023. The two sides are separated by four points, but CF Monterrey have a game in hand. Hence, the deficit could come down to just a single point. Meanwhile, Club America will have a decent chance to end their league title drought this season.

Liga MX Apertura 2023 Winner - Overview

After a couple of stuttering steps at the start of the season, San Luis have won five successive games in the league, which has catapulted the club to the top of the table. They drew their opening game of the season against CF Monterrey and lost the second game against the Clausura 2023 runners-up Chivas Guadalajara. 

In the third match, San Luis bounced back with a stellar 4-1 win against Queretaro FC and then went on to defeat Club Puebla, Club Leon, Pachuca, and Atlas in quick succession. The club is expected to keep this winning streak alive and could go unbeaten for another five games, as they are up against teams that are struggling in the league. 

San Luis have excelled against the underdogs till now, but the real pre-playoff test will come in the final five league games for the club in this Apertura season as they take on a couple of strong sides in FC Juarez and Santos Laguna, and three title contenders in the form of Toluca, Club America, and Tigres UANL. 

As things stand, there are two big names that are not in the playoff qualifying spots. Current CONCACAF Champions League winners Club Leon and 2022 Apertura champions Pachuca. The former is only a point away from the last qualification spot, while the latter continues to struggle three points away from the same spot. 

After winning the previous Apertura title, Pachuca have entered a slump and are yet to climb out of it. As things stand, the club has won just one out of seven league games this season. They have drawn three and lost three of the remaining fixtures. A disappointing attacking display has seen them score just four goals so far whilst conceding 14 due to a leaky defense. 

Club Leon, on the other hand, may not be in a very commanding position right now but are expected to snatch the final playoff qualification spot away from Pumas UNAM. Only a solitary point separates the two sides with almost half the season left to play. This will also provide hope for Pachuca, but considering their performance, it seems unlikely that they will make it.

Disappointment in the 2023 Leagues Cup

The third edition of the Leagues Cup took place during the recent season break. The competition that features American and Mexican sides was dominated by the latter in the first two editions with Cruz Azul winning the inaugural edition and Club Leon taking the title at the end of the second.

However, this season, the tables turned and almost all the Mexican top-division clubs struggled. Current league leaders San Luis and Clausura 2022 runners-up Chivas Guadalajara were eliminated in the group stage itself, along with other weaker sides like Necaxa, Club Puebla, and Club Tijuana. Santos Laguna were also eliminated at this stage.

In the knockout rounds, many more Mexican clubs bit the dust as CF Monterrey were the last competitive Liga MX side left in the competition. However, they were eliminated in the semifinals and lost the third-place encounter against Major League Soccer (MLS) side Philadelphia Union to finish fourth.

Despite being the Mexican top seed of the tournament and skipping the group stage, Pachuca could not capitalize on the advantage and were eliminated in the first knockout round itself. Ultimately, all Liga MX clubs faltered at crucial stages and will now look for vindication as the playoff stage inches closer.

Liga MX Apertura 2023 Winner - Prediction

Several individuals may have been surprised to see such weak odds backing San Luis in the title charge this season. This is because all of their wins have come against underdogs. In seven games, San Luis have played two matches against title competitors and they have failed to win both games.

The teams who have the most experience in the intense Liga MX playoffs will have the upper hand. Hence, teams like Tigres UANL, CF Monterrey, and Club America are carrying the best odds. Another side that can be a top competitor for the title this season is Chivas Guadalajara. The side finished second-best in the previous Clausura season.

The 12-time Liga MX champions are looking to win a record-equalling 13th Liga MX title which will help them draw level with fierce rivals Club America. They were on the verge of achieving this feat last year but were halted at the penultimate stage by Tigres UANL. This season, Chivas Guadalajara will aim to rectify the errors of last season.

However, the Clausura 2023 finalists have suffered back-to-back defeats against Santos Laguna and CF Monterrey. The next opponent they face will be their rivals Club America. If they fail to end their losing streak against their rivals, it will certainly not boost their ambition as the playoffs stage draws closer.

Club America will be aiming to nab a record-extending 14th Liga MX title. The team is also desperate to end a five-year league title drought. However, their performance is still not up to par, despite playing all six games at their home stadium this season. A series of away games wait to test Club America on enemy territory.

CF Monterrey are also strong competitors for the title, but the club has been quite shaky since their elimination from the 2023 Leagues Cup. A massive win in the last match against Chivas Guadalajara must certainly have ended a four-match losing streak for the five-time Liga MX champions and could set the tone for the rest of their season.

Predicting the winner of the Apertura and Clausura seasons is never an easy task. The mercurial nature of the competition has dished out several surprising outcomes over the past decades. As things stand, Tigres UANL are the clear favorites to win a second successive title. Interestingly, they could end up facing Chivas Guadalajara or rivals CF Monterrey in the final.