Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Gunning for Gunnar on Friday

There is plenty of reason for Baltimore fans to be worried about shortstop Gunnar Henderson, but his ability to hit for power isn’t one of them. He leads the team with nine home runs, despite owning a batting average below the Mendoza line, and he’ll be facing the most home run-prone pitchers in baseball.

We’ll share why we’re betting on him to go deep today, along with two other home run prop bets we love.

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Best Home Run Predictions for Friday, May 15

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Home Run Picks for Friday, May 15

There are some fantastic home run props out there today, but some stand above the rest. Below are the three players we’re locked in on. 

Gunnar Henderson Anytime Home Run (+350) at FanDuel Sportsbook

After nearly winning the AL MVP in 2024, Gunnar Henderson hasn’t looked the same. He’s batting just .197 this season, but his power has remained, with nine home runs on the season. That keeps him as an intriguing home run prop bet, despite his struggles to get on base.

As cold as the shortstop has been, he’ll be facing a familiar face tonight in Nats’ starter Zack Littell. He has faced the veteran righty 23 times and has posted seven hits, two home runs, and a pair of walks. That kind of previous success will help Henderson regain some confidence, and we believe he will put up a big night as a result.

Speaking of Littell, he is known for giving up home runs. He surrendered 36 last season, which was the second-most in the league. That has continued into 2026, as he leads all pitchers with 14 home runs allowed.

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CJ Abrams Anytime Home Run (+520) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The National’s young shortstop is on pace to post his best season yet. He’s batting .296 with nine home runs and 36 RBIs, leading to the 8th highest OPS (.931) in the league. We also saw him flash some impressive power early, posting eight home runs in April alone. While he’s only had one so far in May, that will change tonight.

We are locking in Abrams to go deep today, largely due to a struggling Shane Baz (1-4, 5.48 ERA, 1.56 WHIP) starting for the Orioles. After an inconsistent April, he has fallen off a cliff in May. Over two starts this month, he’s combined to pitch 10 ⅓ innings, allowing 11 runs (10 earned) on ten hits and eight walks. He surrendered a home run on both of those starts.

One issue for Baz in 2026 is the amount of left-handed hitting he’s seen. He’s faced them in 96 at-bats this season, and is allowing a .323 average and a .900 OPS. Those are ugly numbers, which is good news for the young lefty star he’ll be facing tonight.

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Ketel Marte Anytime Home Run (+235) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The 32-year-old has not been great to start the 2026 season, but the star has an excellent chance to turn things around against their NL West rivals tonight. 

Marte will benefit from playing in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball: Coors Field. The MLB’s Baseball Savant stats show that is the case again this season, with its 112 park factor ranking as the highest in the league. We have seen Marte capitalize on that in the past, posting a .440 average with one home run and a 1.340 OPS.

Another big reason why we’re backing Marte is the Rockies' pitching. They’ll start with Kyle Freeland (1-4, 6.00 ERA, 1.47 WHIP). While he has managed to limit home runs throughout his career, that hasn’t been the case lately. Over his last two starts, he’s allowed five home runs over 9 ⅓ combined innings. 

Once Freeland exits, he’ll be turning things over to a Colorado bullpen that’s allowed the third-most home runs in baseball.

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