Best NRFI Bets Today: Continue to Fade the Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals

After fading the Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals on Tuesday, we go back to the well with another pair of efficient arms projected to take the mound. Later in the night, we turn our attention towards the Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers with positive regression looming large over Framber Valdez, battling it out against a lineup who struggles with getting on base.

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Best NRFI Bets for Wednesday, August 12

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Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals - Zack Wheeler vs. Kyle Leahy (2:15 PM, EST)

Zack Wheeler will be able to strengthen his NL Cy Young Award odds by neutralizing a St. Louis Cardinals offense who makes contact at a low rate.

Under 0.5 Run (-120) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Since the start of the regular season, Zack Wheeler has been able to remain in contention for the NL Cy Young award, averaging an ERA of 2.69, a WHIP of 0.979, and a FIP of 3.16. Wheeler’s success on the mound stems from his command, giving up less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched.

Fortunately for Wheeler, he will have a great opportunity to build on his momentum against the St. Louis Cardinals by attacking a lineup who ranks below league average in Hit Rate and in On Base Percentage. Especially with his outfield narrowing the width of the Cardinals gaps on the back end, fielding a group who resides in the top half of the board in Fielding Percentage.

On the other side of the field, Kyle Leahy gets the starting nod for the Cardinals, a productive arm who is averaging an ERA of 3.45 and a FIP of 3.78. With the Phillies also struggling to make contact per their bottom ten mark in Hit Rate, Leahy will be able to generate Strikeouts at a higher rate and hold them scoreless in the first inning.

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Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers - Foster Griffin vs. Framber Valdez (6:40 PM, EST)

Expect Framber Valdez to round back into form against Cleveland by taking advantage of a lineup who grades out poorly on offense.

Under 0.5 Run (-125) at BetMGM Sportsbook

It has been a turbulent start to Framber Valdez’s first stint with the Detroit Tigers, averaging an ERA of 4.17 and a WHIP of 1.366 in 23 appearances. His inability to punch out has played a major role in his struggles this season, generating less than five Strikeouts per game.

In an AL Central divisional matchup against the Cleveland Guardians with major implications for the AL Central odds, Valdez will be able to break out of his slump by exploiting a lineup who ranks near dead last in Hit Rate, RBIs, Runs Scored, On Base Percentage, and in OPS. The coverage Valdez receives from his supporting cast also lowers the probability of getting burned by an error, surrounding him with a defense who ranks fifth in Defensive Efficiency.

While Valdez has struggled to find his footing, Foster Griffin has been more productive, kicking off his 2026 campaign with an ERA of 3.31 while giving up less than one Hit Against per inning. With the Tigers ranking in the bottom half of the board in Hit Rate and in Strikeout Rate, Griffin will be able to continue to create a high volume of Whiffs and keep a clean sheet in the first inning.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox - Rhett Lowder vs. Luis Castillo - With Rhett Lowder on the mound, the Chicago White Sox are in a favorable position to open up the scoring early, facing off against an arm who is averaging an ERA of 5.26, a WHIP of 1.483, and a FIP of 4.51.

• Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins - Shane Baz vs. Zebby Matthews - Expect the Baltimore Orioles to get on base early and often by ambushing Zebby Matthews who is averaging a FIP of 5.04 while backed up by a defense who ranks near the bottom of the board in Fielding Percentage.

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