Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Go Big or Go Home

Wednesday is a special day because we’re being super aggressive with our home run props. That doesn’t mean we’re being crazy or unrealistic with our targets. It just means we’re targeting players who have excellent value, even if they may not seem like the most obvious targets. In other words, it’s time to go big or go home.

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Best Home Run Predictions for Wednesday, August 12

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Home Run Picks for Wednesday, August 12

There are some fantastic home run props out there today, but some stand above the rest. Below are the players we’re locked in on. 

Nolan Arenado Anytime Home Run (+560) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Arenado’s power has been on the decline in recent years, but he’s had a resurgence in Arizona. He’s already up to 18 home runs on the season, and he’s in the midst of a hot streak. Arenado has already hit four home runs in August, on top of going 4 for 8 with a triple and a home run over the first two games of Arizona’s series with the Rockies.

On Wednesday, Arenado has the benefit of facing Ryan Feltner. For what it’s worth, Arenado is just 1 for 8 in his career against Feltner. However, Feltner is one of the worst offenders at giving up home runs this season. He’s allowed at least one home run in each of his last seven starts, giving up 18 in just 82 innings this year. With right-handed hitters doing the most damage, slugging .558 against him, Arenado is Arizona’s best right-on-right hitter to take advantage.

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Ezequiel Tovar Anytime Home Run (+750) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Of course, the Diamondbacks will also be vulnerable to the long ball against the Rockies on Wednesday with Merrill Kelly getting the start. Kelly has looked better lately, but over the season, he’s given up 23 home runs across 120 innings. It’s hard to find a pitcher starting on Wednesday who’s had more trouble with the long ball, so it makes sense to target someone facing him.

Believe it or not, Tovar is the hitter on the Rockies who’s given Kelly the most trouble in his career. Tovar is 8 for 18 (.444) with three doubles and two home runs in his career against Kelly. That’s a big enough sample size to believe Tovar can do some damage. Even with just nine home runs this season, Tovar has great value with this matchup.

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Manny Machado Anytime Home Run (+440) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Looking at the Padres, Fernando Tatis Jr. is the team’s hottest hitter during their four-game winning streak. But Machado is still San Diego’s biggest power threat with a team-high 23 home runs. He also offers far more value than Tatis does on Wednesday, making him the better option.

While Machado hasn’t gone deep since July 26, he had three hits on Tuesday, showing signs of coming out of his slump. He also has a good track record against Dustin May, who starts for Milwaukee against the Padres on Wednesday. Machado is 10 for 39 with two home runs against May, so he’s more than capable of taking him deep.

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Francisco Alvarez Anytime Home Run (+430) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Few players have as much raw power as Alvarez, who has quietly had a good season for the abysmal Mets. He had just four home runs when he returned from injury in June, but has hit nine home runs over the last two months. Alvarez just needs the right matchup, and he’ll get that against Atlanta’s Tyler Mahle on Wednesday.

For starters, Alvarez hit a home run in one of his two career at-bats against Mahle. More importantly, Mahle has struggled with the long ball for most of the season, giving up 14 home runs. Surprisingly, right-handed hitters have had more success against him, slugging .462, making Alvarez the best power option for the Mets in Wednesday’s game.

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