Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Betting Against a Struggling Gerrit Cole

Gerrit Cole has been one of the best pitchers over the last decade, but he hasn’t looked like it in 2026. He returned from the IL strong, but has struggled badly since then. That’s why we’re betting on one Twins slugger to take him deep tonight.

Below, we’ll share which Minnesota star we’re backing today, along with two other home run predictions. 

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Best Home Run Predictions for Friday, July 3

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Home Run Picks for Friday, July 3

There are some fantastic home run props out there today, but some stand above the rest. Below are the three players we’re locked in on. 

Jackson Chourio Anytime Home Run (+430) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Brewers’ young superstar had just two home runs at the end of May, but his power stroke returned in a big way in June. He finished last month batting .319 with 10 home runs, 25 RBIs, and a fantastic 1.013 OPS. This is the version we’ve seen emerge over his first two seasons, and the 22-year-old is on pace to have his best offensive campaign yet in 2026.

We would take Chourio against almost anyone at this point, but we’re backing him tonight largely due to the pitching matchup he’ll face.

The D-backs will be sending rookie Jose Cabrera (0-1, 3.60 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) out to start this game. The 24-year-old looked sharp in his MLB debut on June 21, but was hammered in his second start. He allowed four runs on seven hits and two home runs over five innings. 

Cabrera wasn’t one of Arizona’s top prospects, but joined the MLB team’s rotation after an uncanny string of injuries left it depleted. That has us lowering expectations for him to turn things around against a great Brewers team today. 

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Jordan Walker Anytime Home Run (+285) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Walker saw his power numbers drop in June, managing just three home runs after posting 15 coming into the month. While that’s dropped his slugging percentage and OPS, the outfielder finished batting .283 while driving in 15 runs. It’s helped continue his breakout campaign in 2026, landing him inside the top ten betting favorites to win the NL MVP. 

Walker will be facing a notorious ground ball pitcher tonight in David Peterson (4-6, 5.86 ERA, 1.59 WHIP). The towering lefty has never allowed more than 16 home runs in a season, but things fell apart in June. He finished with an 8.27 ERA and five home runs allowed over just 16 ⅓ innings.

While a trade to the Cubs may help, he still didn’t look sharp in his first start for the team. We believe that makes him vulnerable against Walker today.

Walker is 2-for-4 against Peterson with one home run. He’s also batting .308 with six home runs in 78 at-bats against southpaws this season.

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Josh Bell Anytime Home Run (+370) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Just when we thought Josh Bell’s career was winding down, the slugger reminded us just how dangerous he can be in June. He finished the month batting .295 with five home runs and 22 RBIs. His hot bat carried into July, opening the month with a home run against the Astros.

Bell and the Twins will be up against former Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole (2-3, 4.06 ERA, 1.22 WHIP). The aging ace opened the season on the IL, finally making his debut in late May. He was elite in his first two starts, but that success didn’t carry over to June. He went 1-3 with a 6.12 ERA for the month. 

One big reason for Cole’s struggles has been the long ball, as he has allowed seven home runs over his last 25 innings pitched. Two of those came in his last start, showing he is still far away from figuring things out.

Bell’s hot bat will take advantage of the struggling Cole, giving us confidence to back him tonight. 

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