Ambetter Health 200 Predictions: Veteran Justin Allgaier Should Be Man of the Hour at Magic Mile

Written by: Reid Spencer
Published July 14, 2023
4 min read
  • John Hunter Nemechek goes for second straight Xfinity Series victory.
  • Austin Hill is no slouch at the Magic Mile, and he’s priced very favorably.
  • Based on his stellar record at Loudon, Justin Allgaier should have an edge.

Ambetter Health 200 Betting Odds

Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.

John Hunter Nemechek+250
Justin Allgaier+400
Josh Berry+550
Sammy Smith+650
Cole Custer+650
Chandler Smith+1100
Austin Dillon+1100
Sam Mayer+1500
Sheldon Creed+2000
Austin Hill+2200
Brandon Jones+2800

Our Picks for the Ambetter Health 200

Justin Allgaier to win the race at +400.

Austin Hill as our long-shot pick to win the race at +2200

Austin Hill to finish in the top three at +600

Justin Allgaier to beat John Hunter Nemechek head-to-head at +110

Nascar Ambetter Health 200 Xfinity Series predictions

Ambetter Health 200 Predictions

John Hunter Nemechek Seeks Second Straight Xfinity Series Win

John Hunter Nemechek stole a NASCAR Xfinity Series victory last Saturday at Atlanta Motor Speedway, outfoxing Kaulig Racing teammates Daniel Hemric and Justin Haley on a restart in overtime.

From high-speed, high-banked Atlanta, the series moves to relatively flat, one-mile New Hampshire Motor Speedway, where a car’s ability to turn through the corners is paramount.

It’s certainly true that Nemechek will be driving first-class Joe Gibbs Racing equipment, and no doubt that’s why he’s the betting favorite at +250 via DraftKings Sportsbook.

But Nemechek has raced only twice at New Hampshire in the Xfinity Series and never in a JGR car. He finished fourth in 2018 in a Chip Ganassi Chevrolet and crashed out in 36th place in 2019 driving for GMS Racing.

So we’re not buyers when it comes to Nemechek, even though Gibbs cars won six straight races at Loudon before Chevy driver Justin Allgaier stopped the streak last year.

Three-Time Winner Austin Hill Is This Week’s Rodney Dangerfield

In other words, Austin Hill is getting absolutely no respect from handicappers for Saturday’s Ambetter Health 200.

Yes, Hill is best known for his accomplishments in superspeedway racing. After all, four of his five career victories have come on tracks that feature a lower-horsepower competition package.

But Hill also won at Las Vegas this season, and he’s fast everywhere. That’s why his posted odds of +2200 at DraftKings are nothing short of astonishing.

A three-time winner this year, Hill finished seventh at New Hampshire last year in his only Xfinity Series start at the track. Three of the drivers who finished ahead of him aren’t racing in the Ambetter Health 200 this weekend.

We recommend a long-shot bet on Hill to win and a bet at +600 (DraftKings) to finish in the top three. But place your wagers before Hill qualifies near the front of the field on Friday—and the line moves.

Veteran Justin Allgaier Should Be Man of the Hour at Magic Mile

It’s true that the JR Motorsports drivers haven’t enjoyed the success they had last year. That includes Justin Allgaier, who won at Charlotte for JRM’s only victory so far this season.

But New Hampshire is a track seemingly built for Allgaier, a veteran driver who has eight top 10s in 11 starts at the one-mile flat track. The Magic Mile requires car control and consistent rhythm, and Allgaier can provide both.

His last three Loudon starts have resulted in a third, a second, and a victory in that order, and we think he’ll defend last year’s win at +400 via DraftKings.

We also believe Allgaier will beat John Hunter Nemechek head-to-head at the very favorable price of +110 (DraftKings).

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How to Watch the Ambetter Health 200

  • Race: Ambetter Health 200 NASCAR Xfinity Series race
  • Location: New Hampshire Motor Speedway
  • Time: Saturday, July 15, 3 p.m. ET
  • How to Watch: USA
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Image for Reid Spencer

Reid Spencer

NASCAR Betting Analyst

Betting Analyst
Award-winning motorsports writer Reid Spencer has served as lead writer for the NASCAR Wire Service for 16 years, having also spent a four-year stint as NASCAR columnist and beat writer for Sporting News. He is currently serving as president of the National Motorsports Press Association.
Nationality: American
Education: Bachelor in Drama
Favourite Sportsbook: Caesars Sportsbook
Favourite Casino: FanDuel Casino
48 years
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