Image for Reid Spencer Reid Spencer - October 21, 2022

Contender Boats 300 Predictions: Gragson’s Last Seven Xfinity Series Races Have Produced 4 Victories

  • Noah Gragson enters this Round of 8 Playoff race as the clear betting favorite.
  • The lack of history at Homestead will work against rising star Ty Gibbs.
  • After rotten luck at Las Vegas, AJ Allmendinger needs a strong run on Saturday.

Contender Boats 300 Betting Odds

Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.

WinnerOdds
Noah Gragson+200
BET HERE
Ty Gibbs+300
BET HERE
Justin Allgaier+650
BET HERE
Trevor Bayne+650
BET HERE
Josh Berry+800
BET HERE
AJ Allmendinger+1200
BET HERE
Austin Hill+1500
BET HERE
Brandon Jones+1500
BET HERE
Sam Mayer+1500
BET HERE
Sheldon Creed+3000
BET HERE
Riley Herbst+4000
BET HERE

Our Picks for the Contender Boats 300

Noah Gragson to win the race at +200

AJ Allmendinger to beat Sam Mayer head-to-head at -120

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Contender Boats 300 Predictions

Contender Boats 300 Predictions

Noah Gragson Looks to Extend Success in Breakout Xfinity Season

Our only complaint about betting on Noah Gragson to win Saturday’s Contender Boats 300 at Homestead-Miami Speedway is the extraordinary shortness of the odds.

Gragson is offered at +200 via DraftKings Sportsbook, in part because of his record in the last seven races and in part because of his record at Homestead.

Gragson’s last seven Xfinity Series races have produced four victories, a second, a third and a 10th, leaving him 44 points above the cut line for the Championship 4 race on Nov. 5 at Phoenix raceway.

At Homestead, Gragson has three top fives and 208 laps led in four starts at the track. Small wonder he’s our pick to win on Saturday.

The only question is whether you’re inclined to risk a bet on a +200 win proposition.

Ty Gibbs Will Be Making His First Xfinity Series Start at Homestead

Unlike Noah Gragson, Ty Gibbs has no record at Homestead. The Xfinity Series didn’t race there last year, and consequently, Gibbs will be making his first start at the track on Saturday.

Nevertheless, Gibbs is second choice to win at +350 via DraftKings Sportsbook, based undoubtedly on his five victories this season and his undeniable prowess on other 1.5-mile intermediate speedways.

Our advice, however, is not to waste your money on a Gibbs-to-win bet. Homestead is a track that requires drivers to run the wall in order to be successful, and that takes practice—the one commodity Gibbs can’t bring to the table.

After Rotten Luck at Las Vegas, AJ Allmendinger Needs to Rebound

AJ Allmendinger was running in the top five last Saturday at Las Vegas when a loose wheel forced him to make an unscheduled pit stop.

The driver of the No. 16 Kaulig Racing Chevrolet finished 22nd and dropped below the cut line in the race to make the Championship 4 at Phoenix.

Allmendinger is at his best when his back is to the wall, and we expect a strong performance from the 40-year-old veteran on Saturday. No doubt he’ll improve on his average starting position at Homestead of 30.3 and an average finish of 13.0.

That’s why we’re picking the Dinger to beat Sam Mayer heads-up at -120. Like Ty Gibbs, Mayer has never raced at Homestead before.

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How to Watch the Contender Boats 300

RaceContender Boats 300 NASCAR Xfinity Series race
LocationHomestead-Miami Speedway
TimeSaturday, October 22, 4:30 p.m. ET
How to WatchUSA

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AUTHOR

Reid Spencer

189 Articles

Award-winning motorsports writer Reid Spencer has served as lead writer for the NASCAR Wire Service for 16 years, having also spent a four-year stint as NASCAR columnist and beat writer for Sporting News. He is currently serving as president of the National Motorsports Press Association. Email: [email protected]

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