USA Today 301 Predictions: No Country for Hendrick Cars

Written by: Reid Spencer
Published June 21, 2024
4 min read
  • Theater of the absurd: Kyle Larson once again is a top choice on Sunday.

  • Brad Keselowski can reaffirm superiority in the Ford camp at Loudon.

  • Christopher Bell will bring speed to New Hampshire, but he’ll need luck, too.

USA Today 301 Betting Odds

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Driver Odds
Christopher Bell +450
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Martin Truex Jr. +500
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Kyle Larson +600
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Denny Hamlin +600
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Ryan Blaney +700
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Joey Logano +800
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William Byron +1200
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Chase Elliott +1400
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Brad Keselowski +1600
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Tyler Reddick +1800
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Ty Gibbs +2000
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Our Picks for the USA Today 301

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USA Today 301 Predictions

USA Today 301 Predictions

New Hampshire Won’t Be a Hendrick Motorsports Love Fest This Week

The oddsmakers at BetMGM have Kyle Larson as third choice to win Sunday’s USA Today 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

That’s simply because he’s Kyle Larson, a generational talent in everything he drives. Accordingly, he’s posted at +600 this week.

But Larson hasn’t been particularly good at New Hampshire since he joined the Hendrick Motorsports roster. In three starts at Loudon with HMS, Larson has a best finish of third (last year) and has led just six of a possible 894 laps (also last year).

Larson was actually better at New Hampshire when he drove for Chip Ganassi, posting three runner-up finishes in 10 starts.

Larson’s Hendrick teammates have even worse numbers at the Magic Mile. Chase Elliott (+1400 BetMGM) has two top fives and three top 10s in 10 starts. William Byron (+1200 BetMGM) has a best result of 11th in six races.

Consider also that a Chevrolet driver has won just one of the last 17 events at the one-mile flat track. That was Kevin Harvick in 2016 before Stewart-Haas Racing switched to Ford.

So if you’re inclined to ignore Hedrick drivers this week—and Chevrolet drivers in general—you have our blessing.

Bet on Kyle Larson (+600) at BetMGM 

Brad Keselowski Should Be the Top Ford Driver at New Hampshire

In his last nine NASCAR Cup Series races, Brad Keselowski has posted one victory, three second-place finishes and one third.

He’s also a two-time winner at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with 16 top 10s and 10 top fives in 23 races at the one-mile flat track.

The bottom line? We think Bad Brad is considerably underrated at +1600 via BetMGM, and we like him to finish in the top three at +450 on BetMGM.

We also think the Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing owner/driver will lead the Ford contingent this week at +450 via BetMGM.

Bet on Brad Keselowski (+450) at BetMGM 

Fast Every Week, Christopher Bell Is a Solid Threat to Win at Loudon

Deep into a green-flag run, Christopher Bell had the fastest car in last Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race at Iowa Speedway.

Only one problem: a blown tire had sent Bell’s Toyota rocketing into the outside wall during Friday’s practice, and he started the race from the rear in a backup car.

Bell ultimately finished fourth—and was disappointed with the result. In four starts at New Hampshire, he has a win (2022), a runner-up finish (2021) and a pole (2023).

In addition, the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota driver has three wins in three starts at Loudon in the NASCAR Xfinity Series, and he’ll get extra seat time in that series on Friday and Saturday.

Bell is confident he’ll be fast again on Sunday. So are we. That’s why we’re picking him to win at +450 via BetMGM.

Bet on Christopher Bell (+450) at BetMGM 

How to Watch the USA Today 301

  • What: USA Today 301 NASCAR Cup Series Race

  • Where: New Hampshire Motor Speedway

  • When: Sunday, June 23, 2:30 p.m. ET

  • How to Watch: USA

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Reid Spencer

NASCAR Betting Analyst

Expertise:
NASCAR
Betting Analyst
Award-winning motorsports writer Reid Spencer has served as lead writer for the NASCAR Wire Service for 16 years, having also spent a four-year stint as NASCAR columnist and beat writer for Sporting News. He is currently serving as president of the National Motorsports Press Association.
Nationality: American
Education: Bachelor in Drama
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Experience:
48 years
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