Best NBA Prediction Markets Today: Finding the Right Trends and Being Aggressive on Friday Night

For the second straight day, there are three NBA playoff series on the schedule. Each series has reached a pivotal Game 3, as two of the series are tied, while one team is up against a wall down 2-0.

We’ve explored the markets at Kalshi and come up with the best option for each game, as well as one long-term prediction.

Best NBA Prediction Markets for Friday, April 24

Values courtesy of Kalshi. If you’re new to prediction markets, you can sign up today using the Kalshi promo code WSN and claim a $10 bonus after trading your first 100 contracts. Find more info in our detailed Kalshi review.

Celtics Beat 76ers by 10.5 Points in Game 3 (Yes, 39 Cents)

Through two games, this series makes absolutely no sense. The Celtics dominated Game 1 in a 31-point win, only to lose Game 2 by 14 points. Conventional wisdom says the truth is somewhere in the middle. However, we’re going to lean toward Game 1 being the more accurate sign of things to come, which is why there is great value in betting on Boston to come away with another lopsided win.

During the regular season, the Celtics went 18-8 against the spread following a loss. That made them the best team in the NBA at responding to a defeat. That’s not going to change during the playoffs. The Celtics now know that they can’t be complacent against the 76ers, so look for them to be at their best and dominate again.

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Rockets Beat Lakers by 8.5 Points (No, 49 Cents)

Down 2-0 in the series, the Rockets just need to get a win. Yet, they’re expected to cover 8.5 points against a team that’s beaten them in back-to-back games. While that desperation could benefit Houston, it’s tough to bet against the Lakers after how they’ve looked in the first two games. Keep in mind the Rockets were the third-worst home favorite this season, going just 16-22 against the spread.

Meanwhile, the Lakers were 25-16 straight up on the road this season, giving them one of the best away records in the league. LeBron James is playing like a man on a mission, while getting plenty of help from his supporting cast. The Lakers also know they can’t take their foot off the gas against the Rockets. With Austin Reaves potentially returning and Kevin Durant battling an injury, there is every reason to believe the Lakers can at least force a close game.

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Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Game 3 Over 211.5 Total Points (No, 35 Cents)

There have been exactly 209 total points scored in each of the first two games of this series. That total has fallen well short of the over/under available at most sportsbooks. Yet, that over/under total has barely come down. The low-scoring nature of the series isn’t going to suddenly flip with the series moving to Portland.

Thus, we’re taking the aggressive approach, finding value in the total score being around 209 points, perhaps less. However, this is one occasion to wait until the status of Victor Wembanyama is known. He’s trending toward passing concussion protocol and playing. But if he doesn’t play, San Antonio’s defense will be negatively impacted, leading to more total points than the first two games of this series.

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Knicks 4-3 Series Win Over Hawks (Yes, 30 Cents)

The Knicks might be the most disappointing team in the playoffs thus far. They brought in Mike Brown as their new head coach, thinking he would get them over the hump in the playoffs. Yet, they blew a big lead in Game 2 and fell short after needing a furious comeback in Game 3. Needless to say, they find themselves in a tough spot and are teetering toward the season becoming a total disaster.

On the bright side, this is a good time to back New York in a futures pick. The Knicks are still the better team; it’s just a matter of being able to show that for four consecutive quarters the way they did in Game 1. To their credit, the Hawks aren’t going away, and they won’t make it easy. But if the Knicks can find a way to steal a game on the road and hold serve at Madison Square Garden, they will be able to escape with a 4-3 series win. It’s not a far-fetched scenario, despite two disappointing losses in a row, and right now, Kalshi is offering great value on things playing out that way if you believe the Knicks have a comeback in them.

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