Slowly but surely, the first round of the NBA Playoffs is coming to an end. There are three games on the schedule on Wednesday, with two teams facing elimination.
We’ve scoured the predictions markets at Kalshi to find the best picks for Wednesday, and one futures prediction that is worth looking at right now.
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| Best NBA Predictions | Kalshi Price |
|---|---|
| Pistons Beat Magic by 7.5 Points in Game 5 | No, 42 Cents |
| Cavaliers Beat Raptors by 10.5 Points in Game 5 | Yes, 45 Cents |
| Lakers Beat Rockets by 3.5 Points in Game 5 | Yes, 54 Cents |
| Knicks 7+ Playoff Wins | Yes, 43 Cents |
| Odds and market prices are accurate as of the time of publishing and subject to change before the event. | |
It’s rare to find a team that’s facing elimination as a heavy favorite in a game. However, most sportsbooks have Detroit favored by 10.5 points in Game 5. We’ve lost a little bit of faith in the Pistons, so we’re going to take a more lucrative option in this game and bet on the Magic to stay within at least 7.5 points.
Frankly, an Orlando win isn’t out of the question; they’ve won back-to-back games, and they already won a road game in this series. Orlando’s confidence is sky-high at the moment, and the Magic will want to close out this series as soon as possible. Also, the Pistons have been so erratic offensively in this series that it’s hard to envision them winning by a comfortable margin, which is why we like the Magic to at least make this a close game.
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The home team has won every game in this series. In fact, the home team has won by double digits in three of the first four games. That has us leaning heavily toward the Cavs to cover a double-digit spread at home and re-take the series lead.
If you go back to Game 1, the Cavaliers were on fire offensively and looked like they would sweep the Raptors. With the pressure on in a tied series and the home crowd behind them, look for the Cleveland offense to hit on all cylinders once again. While the Raptors have played well offensively in this series, they don’t have as much depth or firepower as Cleveland, which makes us think the Cavs will pull away late and cover.
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The Rockets saved themselves from getting swept, but staying alive with a road win on Wednesday is another matter. The Lakers have proven themselves to be the better team over the first four games, and they head into Game 5 favored for the first time. Fortunately, the spread is low enough to have faith in Los Angeles to win and cover.
Keep in mind that the Rockets are still playing without Kevin Durant, who remains sidelined without an injury. Some of Houston’s ancillary pieces stepped up in Game 4 to help fill the void. But it’ll be hard to replicate that performance in back-to-back games, especially on the road. After failing to score 100 points in the first two games of the series in Los Angeles, the Rockets likely face a similar fate in Game 5.
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Things are finally looking up for the Knicks after a convincing win in Game 5. For the record, we backed them to win the series in seven games even after falling 2-1 behind the Hawks. Now we’re backing them to win at least seven games during the playoffs, which is getting decent value in the Kalshi futures market at the moment.
Seven wins would mean closing out the series against Atlanta and then pushing the conference semifinals against the Celtics or 76ers to at least seven games, if not winning the series. Presumably, the Celtics will be New York’s opponent in the next round, although Boston is far from invincible after a brutal Game 5 loss. Meanwhile, the Knicks are finally playing up to their potential. They also took three of four games from Boston during the regular season, which makes us think they can win that series as well, or at least push it to seven games.
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