NBA Predictions Today: Can Three Teams Facing Elimination Force a Game 7?

The first round of the NBA playoffs has reached a fever pitch. Thursday’s schedule features three games that have reached Game 6. Can any of the three teams that are facing elimination win to force a Game 7?

We have our best predictions for Thursday’s games and a long-term prediction that makes sense to place right now as we near the end of the first round.

Best NBA Predictions for Thursday, April 30

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Knicks vs. Hawks Over 213.5 Total Points in Game 6 (Yes, 52%)

We have some level of faith in the Knicks, but we’re not entirely certain that they’ll be able to finish off this series on the road. Also, we had success taking the over in Game 5 of this series, so we’ll stick with that strategy for Game 6. After all, Game 5 was the highest-scoring game of the series with 223 total points.

Every game of this series has finished with at least 211 total points. Both teams have topped 100 points in three of the five games, with the Hawks coming one basket short in each of the last two games. Facing elimination at home, Atlanta should be aggressive on offense and have a good night. Plus, there is so little margin for error if you take the under that it makes too much sense to bet the over.

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Celtics Beat 76ers by 7.5 Points in Game 6 (Yes, 45%)

What’s the deal with the Celtics? Every time it looks like they’ve found their groove, they have an utter disaster of a game. After winning two games on the road, they lay an egg at home when they have a chance to close out the series. Nevertheless, the Celtics always seem to bounce back from losses, which is why we’ll back them to win by a comfortable margin in Game 6.

During the regular season, Boston was one of the best road favorites in the league, going 17-9 against the spread. They also had the second-best ATS record in the NBA following a loss, going 18-9 against the spread in their next game after a defeat. Those trends have continued during the playoffs, with the Celtics winning Game 3 after losing Game 2 and winning both road games by at least eight points. That gives us faith that Boston can win Game 6 by at least eight points as well.

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Timberwolves Beat Nuggets in Game 6 (Yes, 33%)

This is our upset pick of the day. The Timberwolves aren’t the team facing elimination in this game, but it feels like they are. Without Anthony Edwards, Minnesota’s chances of making a playoff run have dropped significantly. The possibility of playing Game 7 in Denver after a double-digit loss in the Mile High City in Game 5 makes Game 6 at home a must-win for the T’Wolves.

That Game 5 loss without Edwards didn’t bode well for Minnesota’s chances moving forward. However, the T’Wolves have won both of their home games in this series. In Game 4, in particular, they got just five total points from Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo before both got hurt, but still managed to win. They also held the Nuggets under 100 points in both of their home games. With a similar defensive effort, the T’Wolves will have a chance to pull off the upset in Game 6.

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6+ Series to Go to Game 7 (Yes, 10%)

This is an interesting futures bet that has some upside. Keep in mind that this isn’t just for the first round but for the entire playoffs. There are already six series in the first round that are just one game away from reaching Game 7. The team trailing in the series is favored to win Game 6 in three of those series, so we’re in good shape to see at least three Game 7s in the first round.

In fairness, there are only seven total series beyond the first round. But the playoffs should get even more competitive in the later rounds, leading to more Game 7s. The Eastern Conference, in particular, seems to have a lot of parity and unreliable teams, leading to longer series. Obviously, the odds are against us seeing six or more Game 7s. But the way things have played out in the first round, there is value in taking a chance on this bet.

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