NBA Predictions Today: Best Bet in Eastern Conference Playoffs Ahead of Wednesday’s Critical Game 5

There was one critical Game 5 in the NBA on Tuesday night, and it’s the same situation on Wednesday night. The Cavaliers and Pistons are tied 2-2, with Game 5 deciding which team has a chance to close out the series on Friday, with the Knicks waiting in the wings. Based on the betting options at Kalshi, we have predictions for both Wednesday’s game and how things will shake out in the Eastern Conference.

Best NBA Predictions for Wednesday, May 13

Values courtesy of Kalshi. If you’re new to prediction markets, you can sign up today using the Kalshi promo code WSN and claim a $10 bonus after trading your first 100 contracts. Find more info in our detailed Kalshi review.

Pistons Beat Cavaliers by 4.5 Points in Game 5 (Yes, 49%)

We took a chance in Game 4 of this series and were wrong, so it’s time to go back to keeping this simple. The home team has won all 11 of Cleveland’s playoff games, and there’s no reason to think Game 5 will be any different. In fact, the home team is 10-1 against the spread in those 11 games. Since all four games in this series have been decided by at least seven points, there’s every reason to believe the favored Pistons can cover 4.5 points.

After all, Detroit’s two home wins at the beginning of this series came by exactly 10 points. They are now 4-2 against the spread at home during the playoffs and 4-1 against the spread when favored by fewer than 10 points. Even in road games in which the Cavs have been competitive, they’ve struggled late in games, which should allow the Pistons to take care of business and win comfortably again in Game 5.

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Cavaliers Score Over 105.5 Points in Game 5 (No, 56%)

The Pistons had the second-best defensive efficiency in the NBA during the regular season, and that’s carried over into the playoffs. Naturally, they’ve been better at home than on the road, which is why we’re betting against the Cavs to go above 105.5 points in Game 5. Of course, if Detroit wins the game comfortably, there’s a good chance the Cavs won’t get close to that total.

In five previous road playoff games, all losses, the Cavs have only scored more than 105.5 points once. While they enjoyed success at home in the last two games, that will be hard to replicate, especially given how turnover-prone they’ve been throughout the playoffs. Meanwhile, teams are averaging just 99.3 points per game against the Pistons in Detroit’s six home playoff games. That makes us confident Game 5 will be a low-scoring game for Cleveland.

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Tobias Harris 20+ Points in Game 5 (Yes, 47%)

Harris has been a common target for player props during the playoffs, and we’re not going to stop that now. His numbers have jumped considerably during the postseason, as he’s averaging 20.8 points per game in Detroit’s 11 playoff games. Game 4 was the first time he failed to reach 20 points in this series after a stretch of eight consecutive games of hitting that mark.

With the Pistons at home and favored to get a win, Harris should get back on track and reach 20 points. In Game 4, he had an off night shooting, going 6 for 17 from the field. That was his third-lowest shooting percentage of the playoffs, so he’s likely to bounce back in Game 5. Since he’s likely to take the same number of shots he has in every other game, Harris reaching 20 points feels like a safe bet.

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Pistons Eastern Conference Champions (Yes, 23%)

Now is a good time to remind everyone that the Pistons are the top seed in the Eastern Conference. The Knicks are currently the heavy favorites to win the Eastern Conference after a dominant performance in the conference semifinals. That makes this the perfect time to bet on Detroit to come out of the East because the value is too much to ignore.

At this point, there’s no reason to believe the road team will win a game in the Pistons-Cavaliers series, ultimately giving the series to Detroit. While the Pistons will be tired and the Knicks fresh, Detroit will still have the home-court advantage. Also, the Pistons won all three head-to-head games with the Knicks this season, all by at least 15 points. Even if the Pistons haven’t made things easy on themselves during the playoffs, they remain the team to beat in the Eastern Conference.

With the way things are shaping up, checking the NBA Eastern Conference odds might reflect just how much faith remains in Detroit’s ability to dominate.

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