NBA Player Props and Best Bets: Towns, Siakam the Players to Watch, Plus an SGP

The stage is set for the New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers game in the Eastern Conference Finals, and I’ve prepared my best player prop picks and a same-game parlay for Game 1 on Wednesday.

The Pacers roared into the stage after they eliminated the Milwaukee Bucks and the Cleveland Cavaliers in five games each. Their entire starting five averaged 14-19 points per game in the playoffs, and they have the most efficient offense remaining by a clear margin.

The Knicks just put away the defending champion Boston Celtics in six games in the conference finals despite getting swept by them during the regular season. They beat the Pacers in two of three previous matchups and are hoping to win their first NBA Finals trophy since 1973.

I had a winning start to the Western Conference Finals yesterday, including a plus-money hit. Here are my best Pacers vs. Knicks player prop bets and a same-game parlay for Game 1 on Wednesday.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Wednesday, May 21

Karl-Anthony Towns Over 22.5 Points

The Big Bodega only went over this line one time in six games in the second round and in three of six first-round matchups with the Detroit Pistons. So why, you might ask, do I like him to start the series with a bang? Let me explain what could be my favorite pick of Game 1 in the ECF.

Towns averaged 30.3 points on 56.6 percent shooting from the field and 46.7 percent from three during his regular-season matchups with the Pacers. Indy also allowed the second-highest field goal percentage on drives during the regular season, and Towns shot 70 percent in the restricted area in his games against Indy. He also went over in their two most recent meetings.

Aaron Nesmith Over 12.5 Points

Nesmith has been one of the unsung heroes of the playoffs, averaging 14.6 points on 52 percent shooting (48.2 percent from three). He also went over this line in seven of 10 games in the playoffs, including the 13 points he posted his last time on the court (to go with 13 rebounds).

Nesmith only had four total points in two matchups with the Knicks, but I also believe that he will draw the Josh Hart assignment, meaning that he will be the player who is rotated off of on drives. He’s been lethal from the corners in the playoffs and is a confident player who won’t hesitate to take his looks when they arrive.

Josh Hart Over 9.5 Rebounds

Hart closed out the Celtics series with a 10-point, 11-assist, 11-rebound triple-double, but despite averaging more than eight boards in each round of the playoffs, his rebounding numbers are down. That’s why I’m striking while there’s great value on this line.

Hart had exactly 10 rebounds in all three regular-season matchups with the Pacers and is simply a terrific rebounder. The Pacers allowed the third-most rebounds per game and are only 11th in rebound rate among playoff teams, which means that Hart should get his share of opportunities to cash the over.

Tyrese Haliburton Under 8.5 Assists

Haliburton is known as one of the best playmakers and facilitators in basketball, but he went under this line in four straight games and in two of three regular-season matchups with the Knicks. The Knicks also rank third in assists allowed per game in the playoffs at a lowly 19.9.

While the Knicks likely won’t mind playing an offensive-focused game like the Pacers, I expect them to play fairly straight-up on defense and have the lengthy Mikal Bridges as the primary defender on Haliburton. Therefore, I think it’s more likely that Haliburton has a strong scoring night than he goes for 12+ assists.

Mikal Bridges Under 1.5 Threes

Following the logic above, I expect Bridges to spend lots of time on Haliburton since OG Anunoby is stronger and would be better suited for the Pascal Siakam matchup. That means that Bridges’ legs are going to be drained from guarding Indy’s best player in a frenetic offense focused on pace.

Bridges drilled four threes in the closeout game against the Celtics, but he went under in three straight games immediately before that, and he went under in the two most recent matchups with the Pacers. Indy also held opponents to 33.6 percent three-point shooting in the postseason.

NBA Same-Game Parlay (+225) at FanDuel

-Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks (-4.5)

• Jalen Brunson over 7.5 assists: I am expecting the Pacers to chase Brunson over screens and show him a heavy presence, which should leave him open as a facilitator.

• Karl-Anthony Towns 10+ rebounds: On top of Indy’s rebounding struggles, he cashed this line in seven of his last eight games and in two of three matchups with the Pacers.

• Pascal Siakam 15+ points: Hit the over in four of his last five games and had 24 the last time he faced the Knicks.

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