Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Game Five Prediction: Can the Wolves Stay Alive?

The Minnesota Timberwolves will host the Dallas Mavericks in Game Five of the Western Conference Finals on Thursday trailing 3-1 and looking to keep their season alive.

The Wolves’ victory in Game Four was their first of the series and did not come easy. Sixth Man of the Year Naz Reid said before the game that if there was a team to do what no other had done before—come back from an 0-3 deficit—it was this team.

The Mavericks have proven to be the better team in the series, particularly in clutch moments. Despite that, they are only +8 in overall point differential and are road underdogs in Game Five.

Here, we will go over the betting odds and share our favorite pick for Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Game Five.

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Game Five Betting Odds for Thursday, May 30

The Mavericks are 58-40 (59.2 percent) against the spread, the second-best mark in the NBA, and 13-11 (54.2 percent) ATS as a road underdog. They’re also 3-1 (75 percent) ATS in the series and 10-6 (62.5 percent) ATS in the playoffs overall.

The Timberwolves are 49-46-2 (51.6 percent) ATS and 17-25-2 (40.5 percent) ATS as a home favorite. They’re 9-6 (60 percent) ATS in the playoffs and 3-5 (37.5 percent) ATS against the Mavs across all regular and postseason matchups.

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Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Game Five Prediction

Dallas Mavericks Preview

The Mavericks took a 3-0 series lead on the back of their defense and elite scoring in clutch moments. The tandem of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving both made a number of big-time, late-game shots, namely Doncic’s end-of-game three-pointer in Game Two.

The Mavericks outscored the Timberwolves by an average of 18.6 points per 100 possessions in clutch moments in the series. As pivotal as that has been to their success, it does not tell the entire story.

Dallas has tremendous buy-in from all of its rotational pieces. Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II (questionable: neck sprain) have done an outstanding job protecting the rim, running the floor, and converting lob opportunities.

Derrick Jones Jr. and P.J. Washington, meanwhile, provided versatile perimeter defense, rebounding, and timely three-point shooting. 

The Mavs were just about as capable on the road as they were at home in the playoffs, only decreasing their average scoring differential by .3 points per 100 possessions. Minnesota similarly got just .9 points per 100 possessions better at home.

One of the keys for Game Five will be to see how Dallas can hold up against Minnesota if Karl-Anthony Towns is making his perimeter shots the way he did in Game Four. Their offensive and defensive rating both rank below the Wolves for the playoffs overall, though not by much.

Bet on Dallas Mavericks at BetMGM 

Minnesota Timberwolves Preview

No team in NBA history has come back from an 0-3 hole, a record that Minnesota is hoping to change over the next week or so.

As we mentioned, they have not been outclassed in this series. Their largest loss was by only nine points, and the two others came by three or fewer points. That’s despite disappointing individual performances from Towns, Anthony Edwards, and Rudy Gobert at different points in the series.

Game Four was a better look at the Wolves when they were closer to their best. Edwards became the youngest player in NBA playoff history with a stat line equal to or better than 29 points, 10 rebounds, and nine assists, while Towns went for 25 points (4-5 3PT) and Gobert had a 13-point, 10-rebound double-double.

Despite those performances, Minnesota still only won by five points. That speaks to how close this series has been since the opening tip.

One area the Wolves should look to exploit is the battle of the bench. Naz Reid averaged more than 17 points during the first three games before only scoring six in Game Four and will lead the shock troops against Dallas’ second unit, one that could be without the outstanding rookie Lively II.

We also hope that the Wolves will involve Doncic on the defensive end to tire him out and send double teams toward Irving on the other side to take him out of rhythm, leaving his backcourt mate to orchestrate everything.

Bet on Minnesota Timberwolves at BetMGM 

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Game Five Betting Pick

It seems unfeasible for one of these teams to blow out the other given how close the series has been.

While we entered the series backing the Mavericks, we expected the Wolves to take Game Four and extend the series—and if they can replicate what they did there, they can easily take Game Five back on their home court. 

We believe they will do just that and earn their first home win of the series behind another solid game from their core. They could run into trouble if Towns and Gobert both get into foul trouble again, but the combination of their defensive intensity, elite three-point efficiency, and building momentum is enough for us to back them on Thursday.

• Mavericks vs. Timberwolves game five pick: Timberwolves -4.5 (-115) at BetMGM

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Game Five

• When: Thursday, May 30 @ 7:30/8:30 p.m. CT/ET

• Where: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN

• TV: TNT

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