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Thunder vs. Mavericks Game Four Prediction: Luka’s Health a Major Concern

Written by: Grant Mitchell
Published May 13, 2024
12 min read

The Dallas Mavericks are protecting a 2-1 series lead as they prepare for a Monday night matchup with the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference Semifinals.

The Mavs won Game Three despite an inefficient shooting night from Luka Doncic, largely thanks to yet another outstanding game by P.J. Washington. They’re now a -225 favorite to win the series as they prepare for what could be their final home game of the series.

The Thunder dominated Game One but have been on the back foot since. They were the number one seed in the West for a reason and are more than capable of mounting a comeback, but they’re also the youngest and least experienced team in the postseason by far.

Here, we will analyze the betting odds and share our favorite pick for Thunder vs. Mavericks Game Four.

Thunder vs. Mavericks 2024 05 13 Prediction Luka Doncic

Thunder vs. Mavericks Game Four Betting Odds for Monday, May 13

The Thunder are 50-38-1 (56.8 percent) against the spread, the fourth-best record in the NBA. They’re also 7-8-1 (46.7 percent) ATS as a road underdog and 4-3 ATS in the playoffs (but only 1-2 ATS in this series).

The Mavericks are 54-37 (59.3 percent) ATS, which ranks second in the association. Additionally, they’re 18-14 (56.3 percent) ATS as a home favorite and 6-3 ATS in the postseason.

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Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Oklahoma City Thunder +1.5 (-115) -105 Over 213.5 (-110)
Dallas Mavericks -1.5 (-105) -115 Under 213.5 (-110)

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Thunder vs. Mavericks Game Four Prediction

Oklahoma City Thunder Preview

The Thunder are finding out the hard way how grueling the playoffs can be.

Despite playing solid basketball and getting contributions from all over the roster, they find themselves in the hole against a Mavericks team they outplayed for more minutes than they didn’t during the series. 

OKC posted a +3.5 net rating in three games against the Mavs, again suggesting they were better than the deficit they are facing. They also produced a 110.4 defensive rating and 113.9 offensive rating, both of which would rank eighth if applied to the playoffs as a whole.

The regular-season champs went 10-30 from three in Game Two and Game Three, giving them an average three-point percentage of .333 in their series losses. That’s a stark contrast to their 38.9 and 38.4 league-leading regular-season and postseason percentages.

OKC also, rather expectedly, struggled on the boards. They finished with the third-worst rebound rate during the regular season and ranked second-worst of playoff teams remaining over their last three games. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has also been lights out in this series, averaging 31 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 7.7 assists on 47/50/90 shooting splits. The biggest problem they’re facing is the timeliness of the runs they allow and their failure to have a reliable third scorer join SGA and Jalen Williams as Chet Holmgren averaged just 14.3 so far.

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Dallas Mavericks Preview

The Mavs’ ability to obtain a lead despite Doncic’s injuries and uncharacteristically inefficient play is a testament to their new-look roster that flashed after the trade deadline.

Washington has been outstanding, but Daniel Gafford, another midseason acquisition, and rookie Dereck Lively II have all been excellent at different points in the series.

Still, Washington is the talk of the town lately. He scored 10 points in Game One before dropping 29 (a playoff-career-high) and 27 in Games Two and Three. He made at least five threes in both and is shooting 53.8 percent from beyond the arc for the series.

The Dallas defense hasn’t been excellent but has done enough to survive. The rotations of Gafford and Lively were a sore spot at points in Game Two but worked wonders in Game Three as both made profound impacts, especially Lively down the stretch.

The Mavericks only shot 35.4 percent from long range for the series as a whole. A large part of their team performance is weighed down by Doncic, who shot just 23 percent from deep ever since he suffered a sprained knee against the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round.

If any further proof is needed that the injury is bothering the Slovenian superstar, he took just four three-point attempts in Game Three. That was his fewest in a game since January 26, 2023, when he only played three minutes against the Phoenix Suns.

He’s down to 23.3 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 7.0 assists in the series, meaning he averaged more than 10 points fewer than his regular-season scoring average.

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Thunder vs. Mavericks Game Four Betting Pick

The Thunder were one of the best road teams in basketball during the regular season, but Dallas also plays much better in its building. The contributions of their new arrivals combined with the return of Tim Hardaway Jr. and the excellent second-half play of Kyrie Irving have given them enough to survive Doncic’s cold streak, but it’s put them in a position of needing to be excellent without him to win games.

The Thunder are creating solid looks with their drive-and-kick style and even forced Dallas into going small with no centers in Game Three before they resorted to hack-a-Lively. Their inexperience, as we mentioned earlier, manifested itself in moments, such as Gilgeous-Alexander taking an ill-advised step-back three late in the game.

We expect the Thunder to come out with a vengeance in Game Four and to tie the series up. Washington likely won’t continue his blistering form, and Doncic’s health makes him a liability. Dallas still has a great chance to win the series but is in line for a loss on Monday.

How to Watch Thunder vs. Mavericks Game Four

  • When: Monday, May 13 @ 8:30/9:30 p.m. CT/ET

  • Where: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX

  • TV: TNT


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Grant Mitchell

528 Articles

Grant is a sports and sports betting journalist who prides himself on delivering breaking news and insightful analyses of the industry. Grant graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 and is feverishly pursuing his ambitions in the sports betting field.

In his free time, Grant can be found passionately watching sports, doing a workout, or searching for adventure with his friends.

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