Thunder vs. Timberwolves Prediction and Odds: Will Minnesota Tie the Series?

The Oklahoma City Thunder will look to respond from their 42-point Game 3 loss to give the Minnesota Timberwolves their first win of the Western Conference Finals when they meet for Game 4 on Monday.

Current nba western conference odds have the Thunder as heavy favorites to close out the series and return to the Finals.

The Thunder completely dominated the first two matchups, but the overall season series is still only 4-3, and the most lopsided victory was reached by the Wolves two days ago. OKC’s temperament has proven to be beyond its year, but the Game 4 result could completely flip or effectively end the series, depending on the final score.

The Timberwolves went down 3-2 against the Denver Nuggets in the conference semifinals before winning two straight games last year, so they’re comfortable in moments of adversity. They’re 5-1 at home in the postseason and should have all of the momentum heading into Monday night’s meeting.

Here, I will break down the betting odds and share my favorite picks for the Thunder vs. Timberwolves Game 4 clash.

If you are looking for more betting insights for this matchup, check out our daily NBA Player Props and Best Bets.

Thunder vs. Timberwolves Betting Odds for Monday, May 26

The Thunder are 59-34-4 (63.4 percent) against the spread, 25-19-2 (56.8 percent) ATS on the road, and 57-33-4 (63.3 percent) ATS as a favorite.

The Timberwolves are 47-47-1 (50 percent) ATS, 22-24-1 (47.8 percent) ATS at home, and 15-9-1 (62.5 percent) ATS as an underdog.

Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. Use our BetMGM promo code WSNSPORTS to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets*.

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Thunder vs. Timberwolves Prediction

Oklahoma City Thunder Preview

What went wrong for the Thunder in Game 3? At the most basic level, they did not make their shots, and the Timberwolves did.

The Timberwolves implemented an adjustment with their defense against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Defenders picked him up an average of 46.9 and 45.5 feet from the basket in Games 1 and 2, but that number plummeted to 35 feet in Game 3. 

Not so coincidentally, the Thunder’s points per possession involving a Gilgeous-Alexander pick-and-roll fell from 1.14 and 1.00 in the first two games to 0.73 in Game 3.

The newly-crowned NBA MVP finished the game with only 14 points on 30.8 percent shooting, which was actually tied for the high mark on his team. OKC finished shooting 40.7 percent from the field and 31.8 percent from three, though even those lowly numbers were boosted during garbage time.

The Thunder also played with uncharacteristic reckless abandonment. They turned the ball over on 19.6 percent of their possessions in the first half, while the Timberwolves defied OKC’s league-best defense with just eight percent of possessions ending in turnovers.

The regular-season champs are only third in field goal shooting (46.9 percent) and three-point shooting (34.7 percent) in the conference finals. They’re also third in defensive and fourth in offensive rebound percentage, but they still lead in assist percentage.

The key for OKC remains the same: Use aggressive defense to generate turnovers, and use those to create extra scoring opportunities even when the shots aren’t falling. 

The question now becomes how they will counter Minnesota’s low-block style of defense often seen in soccer. The natural remedy would be to simply make three-point shots, but that’s been easier said than done thus far.

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Minnesota Timberwolves Preview

Okay, this can still become a series. The Timberwolves showed impressive character to respond to OKC the way they did after they’d been visibly frustrated with Gilgeous-Alexander’s free-throw drawing and their inability to knock down open shots.

The Wolves are fifth in offensive rating (114.4) and third in defensive rating (108.2) in the playoffs, putting them 4.1 points per 100 possessions behind OKC.

Whereas they were fourth in three-point efficiency (37.7 percent) during the regular season, they too have struggled to knock down just 35.1 percent of their looks. That can be explained by the extra attention that’s been given to shutting down Anthony Edwards’ driving lanes, as well as the normally-excellent bench being wildly inconsistent.

Minnesota’s main men have done their jobs. Edwards (26.7 points, 9.0 rebounds, 5.0 assists) and Julius Randle (19.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, 3.0 assists) have shown up more times than not. Ironically, the other three starters, Mike Conley, Jaden McDaniels, and Rudy Gobert, have the highest average +/- on the team. 

The Timberwolves’ defensive adjustments paid dividends in Game 3. It is imperative they continue to defend without fouling and to take care of the basketball, because if they do that, they are on a level playing field with, if not ahead of the Thunder.

That’s much easier said than done since OKC tied for the sixth-best regular-season record in NBA history—but Game 3 showed it’s possible. It’s now up to them if they will capitalize on the momentum they now possess.

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Thunder vs. Timberwolves Betting Pick

• Thunder vs. Timberwolves pick: Timberwolves +3.5 (-115) at BetMGM

This is one of the most compelling individual games of the playoffs. OKC totally dominated the first two affairs, yet they never came close to hitting the level Minnesota did in Game 3.

Bad games happen to every team, but it is significant that this happened in Minnesota’s first game at home in the series and that they have consistently become the animal that is most dangerous when its back is against the wall.

The sharp contrast in defensive approach last game could take some time for OKC to adjust to. I still believe they are the better team, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Timberwolves take another victory, or at least cover the spread.

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How to Watch Thunder vs. Timberwolves on 5/26/25

• When: Monday, May 26 @ 7:30/8:30 p.m. CT/ET

• Where: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN

• TV: ESPN