Bills vs. Chiefs Picks, Predictions & Player Props: Expect High Scoring Affair Between Mahomes and Allen

• Patrick Mahomes is 3-0 against Josh Allen in the playoffs over the past five years

• Buffalo lost two key players in their secondary in last week’s contest against Baltimore

• The Bills rank below league average in Def Pass EPA, Success Rate, and Adjusted Sack Rate

After squeaking past the Baltimore Ravens in the divisional round, Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills are set to face off against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs for the fourth time since 2021. Mahomes has had the edge over his rival in the playoffs during that span as he is 3-0 against Allen heading into Sunday. Oddsmakers believe we are in for a close and exciting contest this time around as the Chiefs are currently listed as a -1.5 point favorite in the AFC Conference Championship.

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds 

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs My Pick

• My Pick: Over 47.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Unfortunately for the Bills, a pair of injuries will hurt their chances of slowing down the Chiefs pass attack after two key starters in their secondary went down against the Ravens. Stopping the pass has already been a struggle for Buffalo’s defense this season as the Bills currently rank well below league average in Def Pass EPA, Success Rate, and Adjusted Sack Rate. Factor in the Chiefs secondary also regressing as of late and this matchup may result in another high-scoring affair between the two rivals.

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Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Predictions 

After underwhelming in his efforts of generating pass production against the Houston Texans, Patrick Mahomes will have the opportunity to round back into form against a far inferior Bills secondary who struggles to defend against the pass. This may also lead to an uptick in targets for his star tight end Travis Kelce who thrives at exploiting the gaps in coverage.

With the Chiefs' best path for success residing on Mahomes arm, Isiah Pacheco may receive a decrease in rush attempts which shades value towards the under on his rushing yardage prop. Especially with the Bills' front seven excelling at stopping the run as they currently rank top-12 in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, and Adjusted Line Yards.

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Best Player Props

Patrick Mahomes Over 249.5 Passing Yards (-114 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

With the Bills' secondary grading out poorly in Def Pass EPA and Success Rate, Mahomes will be in a great position to round back into form by picking apart their gaps in coverage. Especially while he is expected to operate in a clean pocket for a majority of the contest as the Bills rank 20th in Def Adjusted Sack Rate. This gives his pass catchers extra time in the open field to create separation from the Bills coverage, increasing the quality of his passing lanes in the process.

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Travis Kelce Over 6.5 Receptions (-120 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

With the Chiefs offense expected to call a heavier dose of the pass to help sustain drives down the field, Travis Kelce may receive an uptick in targets. The Chiefs star tight end is coming off a dominant performance against the Texans as he finished the contest hauling in 7 receptions for 117 yards and 1 touchdown. Against the Bills lackluster coverage, expect Kelce to string together another impressive outing by consistently anchoring in the Bills gaps in coverage while playing behind their linebackers.

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Isiah Pacheco Under 35.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

While the Bills secondary have struggled in coverage, their front seven has excelled at stopping the run as they head into the AFC Conference Championship ranked in the top half of the board in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, and Adjusted Line Yards. Their scheme makes it hard for opposing running backs to churn out yards past the trenches as they anchor their linebackers across the middle at a heavy rate. Factor in a potential decrease in rush attempts and Pacheco may be in for an underwhelming outing.

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Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs How to Watch

• When: Sunday, January 26 at 6:30 PM ET

• Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri

• How to Watch: CBS

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Best Promos and Sportsbooks

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Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Injuries

Buffalo Bills Injuries

• SS Taylor Rapp - Questionable

• CB Christian Benford - Questionable

Kansas City Chiefs Injuries

• N/A