AFC Championship Odds, Favorites to Win, Best Bets 2025: Allen Seeking First Playoff Win Over Mahomes

• The Chiefs are 1.5-point favorites over the Bills 

• Kansas City is -122 to win the AFC 

• No quarterback has ever won four consecutive games over another quarterback in the playoffs

The Kansas City Chiefs are on the verge of accomplishing a goal nobody has ever done in the NFL. If they win two more games this season, they will have hoisted their third consecutive Lombardi Trophy. 

On the other hand, Josh Allen and the Bills are trying to prevent this from happening. Allen is 0-3 against Mahomes in the playoffs, and he will have a tough time winning on the road in this game. 

The Bills are slight underdogs, but they are playing some of their best football this season. Yet, Allen must win the game to give his team a chance at the AFC Championship. 

Sharp money has been coming in on the Chiefs while the public has been targeting the Bills. Depending on how the game script develops, both teams have a realistic chance of winning on Sunday. Here, we will analyze the movement and predict the conference winner.

AFC Championship Odds

Important note: With the Kansas City Chiefs winning the AFC Championship in 2025 the betting market is closed and odds are no longer available. For more NFL betting action, check our Super Bowl odds and predictions.

AFC Championship Predictions - AFC Favorites

Kansas City Chiefs (-122) at FanDuel

The Chiefs have been praising the Bills throughout the week during media sessions. Kansas City has all the confidence in the world, but they don’t take any opponent lightly. 

This is why they went 15-1 with starters on the field in 2024. Andy Reid, one of the best coaches in NFL history, was surprised to learn Kansas City was favored in this contest. 

The Chiefs are a short favorite, which hasn’t changed all week. Some books have Kansas City at -2, but most have them at -1.5. 

This is a legacy game for the Chiefs because their time at the top of the football world could end. No dynasty is meant to last forever, and the Chiefs have been leading the NFL for the past seven seasons.

Mahomes will enter his seventh consecutive AFC Championship Game in seven seasons as a starting quarterback. He is currently 4-2 in AFC Championships and is 3-1 in the Super Bowl. 

The only quarterbacks to beat Mahomes are Joe Burrow and Tom Brady in big games. Kansas City has an elite head coach, Andy Reid, who is one of the best tight ends in NFL history, and Travis Kelce.

The Chiefs' core is getting older, so they must win now because all their pieces are still together.

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Buffalo Bills (+104) at FanDuel

The Bills have a solid roster, but this was never expected to be a championship season. Allen has changed the narrative around the Bills in 2024-25. 

The quarterback could potentially win MVP this year if Lamar Jackson doesn’t, and he needs to prove why he is a top candidate for this award throughout the AFC Championship. 

The Bills and Chiefs met in the Divisional Round last season, and Buffalo dominated the game. The Chiefs still prevailed, but their box score didn’t resemble a championship team.

The one thing the Bills missed last season was an Allen takeover. The quarterback must have the game of his life because that’s what it takes to beat the Chiefs when it counts.

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AFC Championship My Pick

Kansas City Chiefs (-122) at FanDuel

The Chiefs' playoff experience and mental edge over the Bills make us lean toward them in this game. Buffalo has a tremendous team, but until they beat the authority, we can’t take them in this spot.

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Who Won the AFC Championship in 2023/24?

The Chiefs won the AFC Championship Game in 2023, defeating the Ravens 27-20. Kansas City’s defense was fantastic throughout the entire game. 

Lamar Jackson won the MVP in 2023-24, and Kansas City’s defense made him look silly. Jackson turned the ball over multiple times and was held to 54 yards rushing. Considering he was the Ravens' leading rusher, this limited result was a massive success for Kansas City. 

Travis Kelce delivered for the Chiefs on offense, catching 11 passes for 116 yards with one touchdown. This marked the second straight AFC Championship victory for Kansas City and their sixth consecutive year in the title game. 

AFC Championship Winner History

The NFC and AFC were formed in 1970 when the NFL merged with the American Football League (AFL), splitting the league into two distinct conferences. The Baltimore Colts (now the Indianapolis Colts) defeated the Oakland Raiders (Las Vegas Raiders) 27-17 in the first AFC Championship Game.

The winner of the AFC Championship Game earns a bid in the Super Bowl against the NFC champion and also takes home the Lamar Hunt trophy, named after the founder of the AFL.

History of Past AFC Champions

Popular NFL Futures Bets

NFL bettors can place wagers on a variety of futures markets, both long-term and short-term, depending on when the bets are placed.

Futures bets are available for team and player performances. The closer the finish line on the bets, the more lopsided the bets usually are in favor of the prospective winner. Betting futures far away from the completion date is, therefore usually more profitable, unless there is a huge upset or reversal in fortunes late into the season.

Here are different kinds of futures bets that are available.

Regular Season Wins

Bettors can find project win totals for every team in the league and wager on whether or not the team will exceed that total. Win totals are usually set at x.5 so that there are no pushes (draws). For example, the Bengals have a projected win total of 11.5, so 11 wins or fewer would be under, and 12 or more would be over.

Record Breakers

At the start of every season, a selection of record-breaker bets is available. These bets target players who are either close to historical achievements or have shown a propensity or ability to challenge for all-time marks. 

An example of a record breakers bet is Patrick Mahomes to throw for the most yards in a single NFL season. In 2022, he threw for 5,250 last season, which is just about 13.3 yards per game off the all-time mark.

Player Totals

Bettors can also bet on player single-season totals in different areas, including passing and rushing totals, sacks, interceptions, and more. These are correlated to but still distinctly different from awards betting (which we discuss below).

Award Winners

Players can also throw down bets on which athletes will win different awards, including MVP, Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year, Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year, and more. These bets can be placed from the first day post-Super Bowl all the way until the end of the season, but the odds are constantly changing.

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on the AFC Championship

Choosing the best online sportsbook can seem like a daunting process, but it is actually not all that bad. We have provided a guide on how to pick the best sportsbook for your NFL betting pleasure, which we encourage you to read.

Make sure to try out different sportsbooks and find the one that you are the most comfortable with before making any long-term commitments.

For more information, check our list of the best NFL betting sites.

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AFC Championship Winner Odds

There’s a very simple way to remember how odds work.

If the odds value starts with a “-,” that means that bettors have to risk the listed amount to win $100. For example, -400 odds means that a $400 bet will result in a $100 profit. Lines with “-” are usually (but not always) the favored outcome, or the one that is expected to occur.

If the odds value is preceded by a “+,” that means that a $100 bet will win the listed amount. So, +400 odds means that a $100 bet will result in $400 of profit.   

Welcome Bonus

NFL betting sites offer constant welcome bonuses to new users to make the sign-up process more enjoyable and profitable. Bonuses can result in all sorts of prizes, including money-back in bet credits if the first bet loses, guaranteed bonus bets, odds boosts, deposit matches, and much more.

Payment Options

Every sportsbook will accept different forms of payment, although almost all of them have the same basic options. You can find more information about what payment methods are available at a particular sportsbook by consulting our sportsbook reviews or navigating to the deposit section of your sportsbook.