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Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs reigned supreme in the AFC in 2023. They also hoisted the Lombardi Trophy for the second consecutive season.
At this point, it doesn’t matter how talented the remainder of the conference is because the Chiefs always find a way to win.
The Ravens entered the 2023 playoffs as the team to beat in the AFC. Behind MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson, Baltimore rolled in the second half of the season. Their offense was elite, and their defense didn’t bend an inch.
The Chiefs also got hot at the end of the season and carried it into the playoffs. Despite Patrick Mahomes’ track record, the public was all over the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game.
Baltimore opened as a field goal favorite, and the line eventually moved to 4.5 before kickoff. The Chiefs won 17-10, and while the winning margin was just a field goal, this game was never close.
Kansas City’s defense forced three turnovers and held Lamar Jackson to 54 yards on the ground. The 2023 Chiefs were considered less talented than in years past and virtually cruised to the AFC Championship.
If last season was a down year for the Chiefs, it shows they could realistically win the conference yearly as long as Mahomes is under center. The quarterback has already cemented himself as one of the best of all time, and very few teams have stopped him over his six seasons as a starting quarterback.
Even though the season just ended, it’s time to prepare for the 2024 kickoff. The Chiefs are the current betting favorites at +350 FanDuel, the Ravens at +460, and the Bills at +650.
Here, we will break down the AFC and give our best bets for the upcoming season before the NFL Draft.
Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Click on the odds below to place your bets at FanDuel.
Team | Odds |
---|---|
Kansas City Chiefs | +350 BET HERE |
Baltimore Ravens | +460 BET HERE |
Buffalo Bills | +650 BET HERE |
Cincinnati Bengals | +700 BET HERE |
Miami Dolphins | +1100 BET HERE |
Houston Texans | +1400 BET HERE |
Los Angeles Chargers | +1600 BET HERE |
New York Jets | +1600 BET HERE |
Jacksonville Jaguars | +1700 BET HERE |
Cleveland Browns | +2000 BET HERE |
Indianapolis Colts | +2400 BET HERE |
Pittsburgh Steelers | +3600 BET HERE |
Las Vegas Raiders | +4000 BET HERE |
Denver Broncos | +6000 BET HERE |
Tennessee Titans | +6500 BET HERE |
New England Patriots | +9000 BET HERE |
Taking the Kansas City Chiefs to win the AFC Championship is always a good bet. They have played in the conference championship for six consecutive seasons and have won three Super Bowls in this span.
Mahomes has been the catalyst for the team’s success because they haven’t missed the AFC Championship since he took over as the starting quarterback.
The 2023-24 Chiefs were expected to be an average team in the conference. Nobody expected them to win the AFC Championship or the Super Bowl, but they rallied around Mahomes, Kelce, and head coach Andy Reid.
This trio has yielded a lot of wins, and it shouldn’t stop anytime soon. Mahomes hasn’t even scratched the surface of his prime years, and he is already being compared to Tom Brady.
He has consistently beaten nearly every star quarterback in the AFC except for Joe Burrow. Burrow is Mahomes kryptonite, but as long as Kansas City stays clear of Cincinnati, they will be hard to beat in the conference.
The Ravens had one of their best teams in recent history and couldn’t beat the Chiefs. Baltimore has a lot of talent and an MVP quarterback in Jackson, but they haven’t delivered in the playoffs.
The Ravens have been a solid regular season team, but they have struggled getting over the hump. However, they’ll have a strong roster coming into the season.
Jackson has tons of weapons to work with, and he took huge strides as a pocket passer with receivers like Zay Flowers, Nelson Agholor, Mark Andrews, Odell Beckham Jr., and Isaiah Likely.
The defense is also elite, and Baltimore will look to add talent in free agency. However, the playoff woes have been tough to watch in the Jackson era.
The Bills had every opportunity to beat the Chiefs in the AFC Divisional round but came up short. The Bills offense stalled in the second half, which put Kansas City in a position to win on the road.
Tyler Bass missed a kick, which would have sent the game into overtime. Many people blamed Bass for his misfire, but Josh Allen wasn’t great in the game's final minutes and missed multiple chances to give Bass an easier kick.
Allen is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and he can make fantastic plays. However, he also makes a lot of mistakes, and his reckless play has resulted in multiple losses for the Bills.
The biggest offseason question for the Bills revolves around Stefon Diggs. Diggs didn’t seem happy in Buffalo and could be on the move in free agency. This wouldn’t be a devastating loss for the Bills because Diggs was average most of the season, but he is still an elite talent.
Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals are the biggest threat to the Kansas City Chiefs dynasty. The Bengals were getting hot in the middle of the season but ultimately lost Joe Burrow to a season-ending hand surgery.
Burrow is one of the calmest and most collected quarterbacks in the NFL. He has already been to a Super Bowl, and it appears the Bengals will retain Tee Higgins, which gives Burrow one of the best weapon arsenals in the game.
If Cincinnati can stay healthy, they’re the one team with a chance of knocking off the Chiefs.
The value is much higher for the Bengals than the Chiefs at this point. Mahomes and Kansas City may win again, but the Bengals have the value in the conference at 7-1 odds.
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The Chiefs won the AFC Championship Game in 2023, defeating the Ravens 27-20. Kansas City’s defense was fantastic throughout the entire game.
Lamar Jackson won the MVP in 2023-24, and Kansas City’s defense made him look silly. Jackson turned the ball over multiple times and was held to 54 yards rushing. Considering he was the Ravens' leading rusher, this limited result was a massive success for Kansas City.
Travis Kelce delivered for the Chiefs on offense, catching 11 passes for 116 yards with one touchdown. This marked the second straight AFC Championship victory for Kansas City and their sixth consecutive year in the title game.
The NFC and AFC were formed in 1970 when the NFL merged with the American Football League (AFL), splitting the league into two distinct conferences. The Baltimore Colts (now the Indianapolis Colts) defeated the Oakland Raiders (Las Vegas Raiders) 27-17 in the first AFC Championship Game.
The winner of the AFC Championship Game earns a bid in the Super Bowl against the NFC champion and also takes home the Lamar Hunt trophy, named after the founder of the AFL.
Year | Champion |
---|---|
2023 | Kansas City Chiefs |
2022 | Kansas City Chiefs |
2021 | Cincinnati Bengals |
2020 | Kansas City Chiefs |
2019 | Kansas City Chiefs |
2018 | New England Patriots |
2017 | New England Patriots |
2016 | New England Patriots |
2015 | Denver Broncos |
2014 | New England Patriots |
2013 | Denver Broncos |
2012 | Baltimore Ravens |
2011 | New England Patriots |
2010 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
2009 | Indianapolis Colts |
2008 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
2007 | New England Patriots |
2006 | Indianapolis Colts |
2005 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
2004 | New England Patriots |
2003 | New England Patriots |
2002 | Oakland Raiders |
2001 | New England Patriots |
2000 | Baltimore Ravens |
1999 | Tennessee Titans |
1998 | Denver Broncos |
1997 | Denver Broncos |
1996 | New England Patriots |
1995 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
1994 | San Diego Chargers |
1993 | Buffalo Bills |
1992 | Buffalo Bills |
1991 | Buffalo Bills |
1990 | Buffalo Bills |
1989 | Denver Broncos |
1988 | Cincinnati Bengals |
1987 | Denver Broncos |
1986 | Denver Broncos |
1985 | New England Patriots |
1984 | Miami Dolphins |
1983 | Los Angeles Raiders |
1982 | Miami Dolphins |
1981 | Cincinnati Bengals |
1980 | Oakland Raiders |
1979 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
1978 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
1977 | Denver Broncos |
1976 | Oakland Raiders |
1975 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
1974 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
1973 | Miami Dolphins |
1972 | Miami Dolphins |
1971 | Miami Dolphins |
1970 | Baltimore Colts |
NFL bettors can place wagers on a variety of futures markets, both long-term and short-term, depending on when the bets are placed.
Futures bets are available for team and player performances. The closer the finish line on the bets, the more lopsided the bets usually are in favor of the prospective winner. Betting futures far away from the completion date is therefore usually more profitable, unless there is a huge upset or reversal in fortunes late into the season.
Here are different kinds of futures bets that are available.
Bettors can find project win totals for every team in the league and wager on whether or not the team will exceed that total. Win totals are usually set at x.5 so that there are no pushes (draws). For example, the Bengals have a projected win total of 11.5, so 11 wins or fewer would be under, and 12 or more would be over.
There is a selection of record breakers bets available at the start of every season. They target players that are either close to historical achievements or have shown a propensity or ability to challenge for all-time marks.
An example of a record breakers bet is Patrick Mahomes to throw for the most yards in a single NFL season. He just threw for 5,250 last season, which is just about 13.3 yards per game extra off the all-time mark.
Bettors can also bet on player single-season totals in different areas, including passing and rushing totals, sacks, interceptions, and more. These are correlated to but still distinctly different from awards betting (which we discuss below).
Players can also throw down bets on which athletes will win different awards, including MVP, Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year, Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year, and more. These bets can be placed from the first day post-Super Bowl all the way until the end of the season, but the odds are constantly changing.
Choosing the best online sportsbook can seem like a daunting process, but it is actually not all that bad. We have provided a guide on how to pick the best sportsbook for your NFL betting pleasure, which we encourage you to read.
Make sure to try out different sportsbooks and find the one that you are the most comfortable with before making any long-term commitments.
There’s a very simple way to remember how odds work.
If the odds value starts with a “-,” that means that bettors have to risk the listed amount to win $100. For example, -400 odds means that a $400 bet will result in a $100 profit. Lines with “-” are usually (but not always) the favored outcome, or the one that is expected to occur.
If the odds value is preceded by a “+,” that means that a $100 bet will win the listed amount. So, +400 odds means that a $100 bet will result in $400 of profit.
Tanner Kern has been working in the betting industry since 2020. He currently is a social media content creator at DraftKings and contributes to multiple sites in addition to WSN, including Forbes and VSiN. He is also the cohost of the podcast Ride the Line at WSN.
More info on Tanner Kern
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