AFC Championship Predictions & Odds 2021/2022

  • With Patrick Mahomes under center in KC, the Chiefs are favored to win the AFC
  • The Buffalo Bills look capable on both sides of the ball and could win the AFC honors
  • The longshot for this prop bet is the ever banged-up Baltimore Ravens

Only one team from each NFL conference gets to go to the Super Bowl, and the reigning AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs are favored to win this honor in 2021 / 22 once again, so we offer our updated predictions, odds, and picks to help you make a smart bet here.

AFC Championship Winner Odds

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Winner Odds
Kansas City Chiefs +225
Buffalo Bills +300
Tennessee Titans +450
New England Patriots +750
Indianapolis Colts +800
Baltimore Ravens +20000

AFC Championship Winner Predictions and Picks

The safe bet here is on the KC Chiefs and QB Patrick Mahomes, of course, but with the Titans’ star running back Derrick Henry now healthy and back in the postseason lineup, Tennessee could be a fun underdog pick.

Our Pick:

Tennessee Titans

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AFC Championship

Favorites to Win

Kansas City Chiefs

After a tough 3-4 start to their season, the Kansas City Chiefs began collecting doubters, especially once their playmaker QB Patrick Mahomes managed to throw a (at the time) league-leading ten interceptions by Week 8, the defending AFC champs looking like a shadow of their former selves and incapable of postseason play.

Then the HC Andy Reid’s Chiefs did what playoff-worthy teams do, which is to stack wins, their eight-game victory streak a wakeup call for all KC haters, with an offense, now ranked third best in the league after averaging almost 400 yards per game, a team that puts over 28 points on the scoreboard on average and

The Chiefs can beat you deep with speedy receivers like Tyreek ‘Cheetah’ Hill or with a strong red zone attack starring Gronk-like TE Travis Kelce, it’s just their 26th ranked defense that needs work, though they only let the opposition score 21 points per game, a number that Mahomes and company can easily top in four quarters, especially while playing in January.

Buffalo Bills

It looked like business as usual for the Buffalo Bills at the start of the season when QB Josh Allen took them to a strong 4-1 record right out of the gate, but by Week 14 the Bills were 7-6, a team that looked more like a paper lion than a stampeding beast, and HC Sean McDermott was left scratching his head since these were mostly the same players as before.

QB Allen and the Bills have posted three wins in a row now and their playmakers – WRs Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley, TE Dawson Knox and RB Devin Singletary – are all healthy and ready to make a postseason run, this top-5 offense now scoring almost 29 points per game on average making it uncomfortable for opposing teams to even keep up.

Especially given the Bills now have the number one ranked defense after only allowing opponents to gain a total of 287 yards per game, a squad that keeps other teams to about 17 points per matchup starring veteran playmakers like DE Jerry Hughes and SS Jordan Poyer and Micha Hyde, all capable of getting the ball back to their QB quickly.

Tennessee Titans

The Tennessee Titans 8-2 start to the season only included start RB Derrick Henry for the first eight weeks, because after that he was out for the regular season with a foot injury that required surgery, though HC Mike Vrabel still managed to game plan some wins for his team to execute led by veteran QB Ryan Tannehill and others.

Now RB Henry has been reactivated onto the Titans active roster and there are videos circulating online of him at practice, so it looks like King Henry is back, and that’s a dangerous thing, because even without him Tennessee still kept on finding ways to win games, the 11-5 team now set to earn the highly coveted number one playoff seed in the AFC.

This team looks ready to surprise a lot of the favorites here since Henry will be running on fresh legs and the 12th ranked defense is really clicking now, a group that could surprise teams that struggle against the run and who are 7-2 at home, something that will benefit them if they do manage to hang on to that number one postseason seed that also comes with a first round bye.

No Chance to Win

Baltimore Ravens

For a team that started the season on an impressive 8-3 run, the Baltimore Ravens are finally looking as banged up as they actually are having just lost five games in a row and maneuvering themselves almost right out of the playoffs, though a postseason path for them does mathematically exist it does not look likely at all.

It started with injuries to key players like star RBs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, and there have been plenty of other injuries and Covid outbreaks that have kept Baltimore’s roster hopping, the worst of which was an ankle tweak to star QB Lamar Jackson when they were playing the Browns the first time this season, an injury that has kept him out ever since.

Now the Ravens don’t stand much of a chance to get to the playoffs let alone win the AFC Championship Game, right now the eleventh in line for just seven spots going into Week 18, so chances are the Ravens will be watching the postseason from their couches like the rest of us until Jackson’s ankle can heal up, hopefully before next season.

Previous AFC Championship Winners

Team # of AFC Championships
Pittsburgh Steelers 16
New England Patriots 15
Las Vegas / Los Angeles / Oakland Raiders 11
Denver Broncos 10
Miami Dolphins 7
Baltimore / Indianapolis Colts 7
Buffalo Bills 5
Houston Oilers / Tennessee Titans 5
Baltimore Ravens 4
Los Angeles / San Diego Chargers 4
New York Jets 4
Kansas City Chiefs 4
Jacksonville Jaguars 3
Cleveland Browns 3
Cincinnati Bengals 2
Seattle Seahawks 1
Houston Texans 0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

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How to Watch 2021 / 22 NFL Regular Season

NFL Regular Season
What AFC Championship
Where USA + International
When Sunday, January 30
How to watch FOX

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Mike Lukas

Expert on NFL

Mike Lukas is a retired standup comedian turned freelance writer now living in Dallas, Texas, originally from Cleveland, Ohio. His love for the game of football and all things Cleveland Browns turned Mike into a pro blogger years ago. Now Mike enjoys writing about all thirty-two NFL teams, hoping to help football gamblers gain a slight edge in their pursuit of the perfect wager. Email: [email protected]