Ravens vs. Browns Same Game Parlay Picks: Negative Regression Looms Large Over the Ravens Offense

• Myles Garrett is listed as the favorite to win the Defensive Player of the Year award

• The Baltimore Ravens' Derrick Henry is averaging 4.8 Yards per Carry

• The Cleveland Browns' defense leads the league in Pass Rush Win Rate

Since the start of the regular season, Myles Garrett has built a case for winning the Defensive Player of the Year award as he anchors a defensive line who leads the league in most key metrics. In an AFC North divisional matchup against Baltimore, expect Garrett to strengthen his claim for the award as he faces off against a Ravens offensive line who struggles in pass protection.

For more insights, see where Myles Garrett stands among the competition in the NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds.

Ravens vs. Browns Same Game Parlay Picks

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Lamar Jackson Under 18.5 Pass Completions (-135) at BetMGM Sportsbook

It has been a turbulent year for Lamar Jackson while dealing with a hamstring injury as the Baltimore Ravens quarterback currently ranks below league average in Quarterback PFF Grade. His inefficient throws have played a major role in his struggles as the former MVP resides near the bottom of the board in Turnover Worthy Play Percentage.

Unfortunately for Jackson, his struggles with airing out the ball are poised to persist as he faces off against a Cleveland Browns defensive line who leads the league in Pass Rush Win Rate. With Jackson expected to scramble out of the pocket and throw on the run for a majority of the contest, the quality of his throws will drastically decline which lowers his chances of generating a completion.

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Derrick Henry Under 74.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

While Jackson has struggled, Derrick Henry has been able to continue to play at a high level as the Ravens running back ranks above league average in Yards Over Expected per Attempt while averaging 4.8 Yards per Carry. With his offensive line opening up high-quality running lanes as their top-10 mark in Run Block Set Grade indicates, Henry is able to consistently reach the second level of the defense.

In a divisional matchup against the Browns, expect Henry to be slowed down in the backfield at a higher rate as he faces off against a Browns front seven who leads the league in Run Defense Adjusted Line Yards. With Cleveland capable of slowing down Henry with just their defensive line, their linebackers will have extra time to recognize the run and crash down to the line to bottle him up in the trenches.

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Derrick Henry Longest Rush Under 15.5 Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

The Browns' low Blitz Rate also lessens Henry’s chances of generating an explosive run as their extra bodies across the middle will help bring him down at the point of contact after he has been slowed down at the line of scrimmage. With the Browns forced to spy their linebackers in an attempt to contain Jackson in the pocket, Henry may be utilized in the pass more to counter their scheme which will lead to a decrease in his total number of carries.

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Quinshon Judkins Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-175) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Like Henry, Quinshon Judkins has also been able to consistently generate Yards After Contact as the Browns running back ranks top-10 in Yards Over Expected per Attempt. An impressive feat when factoring in the heavy amount of stacked boxes he has to battle against as the Browns offense ranks 32nd overall in DVOA.

Heading into Sunday, expect Judkins to continue to thrive as he faces off against a Ravens front seven who ranks in the bottom half of the board in Run Defense PFF Grade since Nnamdi Madubuike went down with a season-ending injury. For some more exposure, escalator bet Judkins rushing yardage prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate overs.

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