NFL Week 2 Picks Against the Spread: Patriots Bounce Back, Chiefs Officially “Back?”

NFL Week 2 picks against the spread might be the toughest to make all year. 

Bettors are tasked with pairing an entire offseason of evaluations with a one-week sample size - one that must be respected and accounted for, but not used to overreact. Finding the balance can prove to be difficult, but also presents great opportunities on the best US sportsbooks.

• Home teams went 10-6 (62.5%) against the spread (ATS) in Week 1

• Favorites were also 12-4 (75%) ATS in the first week of the year

• The 49ers covered the spread by the largest amount, 23.5 points, of any team

Week 1 had primetime thrillers, upsets, blowouts, elite quarterbacking, dominant defense, and everything in between. What’s on the horizon in Week 2? Find out with my BEST NFL spread picks and bets for the upcoming games.

• My 2026 NFL Betting Stats: 10-6 (62.5% against the spread)

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Week 2 Picks ATS

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Lions vs. Bills - Sept. 17, 8:20 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Lions +4.5 (-115), Bills -4.5 (-105)

• Moneyline: Lions +175, Bills -215

• Total: Over/under 53.5 (-110/-110)

The Lions nearly suffered an all-time loss at home as they threw away a giant lead against the Saints, only to survive on a failed two-point attempt in overtime. Just like every year, the offense has too much talent to fail, but there are very legitimate concerns in the secondary. Ball security and Aidan Hutchinson’s ability to generate pressure are the X-factors for this ball club.

Josh Allen brought the fight to the Texans, racking up 356 total yards and four touchdowns in a road victory that included a fourth quarter game-winning drive. Allen made tons of plays outside of the pocket, even though he didn’t get much help from his running backs. The Bills defense didn’t look impressive, but they stepped up when it mattered the most.

I would also set the Lions as underdogs, but there were some less-than-stellar aspects of a Bills performance that was overshadowed by Allen’s excellence. It will be easy to be out on the Lions after they almost suffered one of the most embarrassing losses in recent history… but I am not that much of a pushover, and I like the Lions to keep this one close, even if they lose.

Lions vs. Bills pick: Lions +4.5 (-115) at Fanatics

Panthers vs. Falcons - Sept. 20, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Panthers -1.5 (-110), Falcons +1.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Panthers -120, Falcons +100

• Total: Over/under 44 (-110/-110)

The Panthers surrendered 59 points to an in-form Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson, who said this summer that his ambition was to lead the highest-scoring offense in NFL history. I didn’t expect this team to be great, and I also think they’re much better than historically bad without the ball in their hands. I was also impressed by Bryce Young, who racked up 371 yards and four total touchdowns with only one interception in the loss.

Cooper Rush is expected to start again in Week 2 after he, well, posted a QBR of 2.6. Yes, seriously. His 143 yards, touchdown, and two interceptions left the game firmly in the hands of Bijan Robinson, who did his best (173 total yards), and the defense, which held Pittsburgh to 20 points. Rush’s performance couldn’t be further from “encouraging,” but he can’t be that bad moving forward… surely…

Fading the Panthers here would be ridiculous (famous last words). Sure, they gave up 59 points, but that was due to an MVP-level performance, and they now get to face an offense led by Rush. They also scored 37 points in their only showing this year, so I will confidently back them here.

Panthers vs. Falcons pick: Panthers -1.5 (-110) at Fanatics

Saints vs. Ravens - Sept. 20, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Saints +8 (-110), Ravens -8 (-110)

• Moneyline: Saints +325, Ravens -425

• Total: Over/under 47 (-110/-110)

Speaking of the Saints, it was a tale of two halves for Tyler Shough. The second-year QB racked up 410 passing yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions, a lost fumble, and five sacks in an all-over-the-place showing. The Saints defense can get pressure and has nice pieces, but they are rather volatile and won’t provide game-to-game consistency.

The Ravens made a statement to the league with their 41-23 win over the Colts, in which Lamar Jackson broke 300 yards passing, Derrick Henry had 144 yards and three touchdowns, and the defense forced a pair of turnovers. There is concern about the health of Zay Flowers, but Baltimore still enters as a huge favorite. This is one of the most talented teams in the NFL and is capable of blowing out lesser teams if it keeps its focus.

I’ve long considered Jesse Minter to be one of the sharpest minds in football, and he’s now getting the opportunity to prove himself to the world. The Ravens often had problems keeping focus under John Harbaugh, but this team looks different. I’m still not a believer in Shough, and his first half showing against Detroit showed that the “bozo gene” is still firmly embedded in his game.

Saints vs. Ravens pick: Ravens -8 (-110) at Fanatics

Vikings vs. Bears - Sept. 20, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Vikings +5.5 (-110), Bears +5.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Vikings +200, Bears -245

• Total: Over/under 49.5 (-110/-110)

Brian Flores decided to blitz Jordan Love and the Packers on nearly 80% of their plays last week, helping them force two turnovers and keep the Packers to just 66 yards rushing. Carson Wentz threw three touchdown passes after he unexpectedly stepped in for Kyler Murray, who went down with a concussion and is expected to miss Sunday’s game. The Vikings are on the road for the divisional matchup but are, as always, one of the best-coached teams in the sport.

Johnson’s goal of leading the highest-scoring offense in NFL history will face a real test against the Flores-led defense. It will also test Williams’ consistency, which has been an issue, against a defense that kept him to one or zero touchdowns in three of their four matchups. The question is if Chicago’s defense - which severely lacks talent - will hold its weight, or continually hamstring the team.

I really don’t like betting on Carson Wentz in the year 2026, but I equally don’t like betting on a team to impressively follow up a 59-point performance. This game screams regression for both offenses, which are starting at significantly different points, against defenses of totally different abilities. I’ll ride with the Vikings just because I think they have the minds on both sides of the ball to be competitive.

Vikings vs. Bears pick: Vikings +5.5 (-110) at Fanatics

Bengals vs. Texans - Sept. 20, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Bengals +3 (-115), Texans -3 (-105)

• Moneyline: Bengals +135, Texans -165

• Total: Over/under 46.5 (-110/-110)

Cincinnati finally got over the Week 1 hurdle after struggling in recent years, but not in the way they would’ve expected. Ja’Marr Chase only had two catches for 12 yards, and Joe Burrow threw a pick six, but the defense recovered four fumbles to keep the Buccaneers at bay. The defense certainly looked much better than it had in years past, but the offense needs to be much sharper against a defense as imposing as Houston’s.

C.J. Stroud showed up to play against Buffalo, looking uncomfortable against pressure, but throwing for 274 yards and two touchdowns and putting together a fourth-quarter drive that could’ve won the game. The offensive line issues are real, but the defense probably might not let up 30 points again this season. Cincinnati’s offensive line looked a lot better in Week 1, but it will be in for a huge test with Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter.

The Bengals’ lack of offensive sharpness is surprising, unexpected, and unlikely to hold, given their talent. On the flip side, Stroud looked more confident than he did the last couple of years, and this Houston defense is terrifying. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Texans bounce back here, especially in front of their home fans. 

Bengals vs. Texans pick: Texans -3 (-105) at Fanatics

Steelers vs. Patriots - Sept. 20, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Steelers +5.5 (-110), Patriots -5.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Steelers +200, Patriots -245

• Total: Over/under 42 (-110/-110)

Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been Aaron Rodgers for a few years now, and although he posted solid numbers in Week 1, he’s still someone who favors the check-down and looks a little gunshy in the pocket. Pittsburgh couldn’t run the ball well and doesn’t have great receiving options, meaning their hopes once again rest on their defense. Fortunately for them, T.J. Watt snagged a pick six against the Falcons last week.

The Patriots were held to 10 points on the NFL’s opening night as Drake Maye tossed three interceptions and looked relatively baffled by the Seahawks defense. New England also struggled to run the ball, although its offensive line play seemed improved. The defense balled out and looks capable of having the same success it did last year.

I don’t think Rodgers can conjure much on offense at this stage of his career. The key for him will be getting the ball out early and keeping the chains moving with the running game, even if that isn’t very explosive. Maye and company should bounce back, especially with the long week of rest.

Steelers vs. Patriots pick: Patriots -5.5 (-110) at Fanatics

Packers vs. Jets - Sept. 20, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Packers -3.5 (-115), Jets +3.5 (-105)

• Moneyline: Packers -205, Jets +170

• Total: Over/under 44.5 (-110/-110)

Jordan Love is a certified squealer in the pocket, but anything will feel like a reprieve after what he just experienced against the Vikings. The Packers are going to struggle to sustain their offense if they can’t use the run as a metronome as they have for years, and Love has to play hero ball. Their defense is also underwhelming, especially without Micah Parsons, under new leadership.

Geno Smith, Breece Hall, and Garrett Wilson led an offense that showed legitimately enticing looks with Frank Reich calling the plays. They had it about as easy as it gets on defense going against the Titans last week, and their discipline and structure will be tested much more against the mind of Matt LaFleur. I like this as an every-now-and-again upset team, but following up a win will be a tall order.

I’d be prepared to love the Packers in this spot if I knew they could run the ball… but I don’t. I trust Gannon to improve the defense, but I also believe that Smith is more like the player we saw on the Seahawks than the one who was on the Raiders. I think the Jets will lose, but I could see that happening by a field goal.

Packers vs. Jets pick: Jets +3.5 (-105) at Fanatics

Browns vs. Buccaneers - Sept. 20, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Browns +8 (-110), Buccaneers -8 (-110)

• Moneyline: Browns +325, Buccaneers -425

• Total: Over/under 41.5 (-110/-110)

The Browns got annihilated in every way imaginable in their Week 1 blowout loss against the Jaguars. Deshaun Watson looked unplayable, they couldn’t run the ball, and the defense was a total no-show. This is a new week with new opportunities, but they’re starting from below zero.

Can someone teach the Buccaneers to hold onto the football? Baker Mayfield and Bucky Irving combined to put the ball on the ground four times, which overshadowed how the offense moved the ball effectively, and the defense ranked in the middle of the league in EPA/play while allowing 33 points. Josiah Trotter was particularly electric, recording 11 tackles, two TFLs, a sack, and a pick-six in his NFL debut.

I very mistakenly took the Browns to cover the spread in Week 1. I don’t see how anyone could confidently pick them with what they put on tape, but once again, I am forced to be the adult in the room and remember that things aren’t always as bad as they seem. Get the Browns back on schedule, and they can lose by a touchdown or less.

Browns vs. Buccaneers pick: Browns +8 (-110) at Fanatics

Eagles vs. Titans - Sept. 20, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Eagles -7 (-110), Titans +7 (-110)

• Moneyline: Eagles -340, Titans +265

• Total: Over/under 39.5 (-110/-110)

The Eagles posted the second-lowest success rate of any offense against the rebuilt Commanders in Week 1. Jalen Hurts made a few bailout plays that could’ve been defended better, but dramatic improvement in play-calling and run-blocking will be needed. On the plus side, the defense is the most talented this team has had in years, which is really saying something.

I’m worried about Cam Ward and this Titans offense that was held to 195 total yards and 10 points against the Jets. Jeffrey Simmons and John Franklin-Myers are not going to be fun to deal with on the interior, but there’s a severe lack of talent all over this team. Robert Saleh and this coaching staff also don’t seem to match the focal points of the roster.

If the Eagles are going to cover the spread, they’re going to need to force turnovers. Tennessee has the benefit of playing in front of its home fans, but after watching what Philly did to the Commanders, it’s hard to see the Titans moving the ball effectively. I’m going to bite my nails and watch for a late Titans backdoor cover in a game they have no chance of winning.

Eagles vs. Titans pick: Titans +7 (-110) at Fanatics

Jaguars vs. Broncos - Sept. 20, 4:05 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Jaguars +3 (-115), Broncos -3 (-105)

• Moneyline: Jaguars +120, Broncos -145

• Total: Over/under 44.5 (-110/-110)

Jacksonville calmed the speculation of a second-year slump under Liam Coen’s leadership as they blew out the Browns in Week 1, 34-10. Trevor Lawrence was special and spread the wealth around the field, while Bhayshul Tuten emerged as the team’s lead running back. The defense managed five sacks and forced two takeaways, but the Browns looked like a high school-level football team last Sunday.

Speaking of inferior football play, what the heck was that from the Broncos? A participant in last year’s AFC Championship Game whose opening performance did no favors for their AFC Championship odds, they missed the most tackles in a game in the Next Gen Stats era, while Bo Nix posted 131 yards, a touchdown, and an interception in his first showing with offensive coordinator Davis Webb calling the plays for Sean Payton. The most concerning aspect of that matchup was that the Chiefs looked like the more physical team, which could prove to be a problem for a Denver team that dominated trench play last season.

The Broncos didn’t look on the pace at all in Week 1. Whether that was because their quarterback and one-score luck ran out, they didn’t get enough reps in the preseason, or something entirely different, they need to snap into focus on a short week as they head to their home field. Coen’s Jaguars are well-drilled, and with Lawrence continuing to improve, I like their chances on the road. 

Jaguars vs. Broncos pick: Jaguars +3 (-115) at Fanatics

Raiders vs. Chargers - Sept. 20, 4:05 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Raiders +7 (-110), Chargers -7 (-110)

• Moneyline: Raiders +260, Chargers -330

• Total: Over/under 43.5 (-105/-115)

The Raiders were my survivor pick in Week 1, and that aged beautifully. Kirk Cousins is a very limited player and matched three touchdowns with a pair of interceptions against a horrible Dolphins defense, but Ashton Jeanty looked like a generational back behind an improved offensive line. The defense also has legit speed in the middle of the field and on the edge, although its secondary is unimpressive.

No favorite lost by more expected points (-10) than the Chargers in their 26-14 defeat at the hands of the Cardinals. Mike McDaniel’s “improved” attack looked hapless, and the defense couldn’t stop Jacoby Brissett, even though they were terrific at hitting runners in the backfield. I expected a lot more from this team, but the Week 1 showing is indefensible.

Ladd McConkey could be out for this game, which would put the Chargers in a tough spot as they look to bounce back. Working in their favor is the fact that they consistently got hands on ball carriers, and Jeanty proved he couldn’t carry an offense if he didn't have the proper blocking. With Cousins being incapable of pushing the ball down the field, this is the opportune time to watch for a Chargers return to form.

Raiders vs. Chargers pick: Chargers -7 (-110) at Fanatics

Seahawks vs. Cardinals - Sept. 20, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Seahawks -4.5 (-105), Cardinals +4.5 (-115)

• Moneyline: Seahawks -225, Cardinals +185

• Total: Over/under 41.5 (-110/-110)

The reigning Super Bowl champions beat the Patriots for the second straight time in the season opener, even after losing Sam Darnold early in the game. Drew Lock stepped in and led the offense effectively, while the defense suffocated Drake Maye with three interceptions and three sacks. Even without Darnold, this defense is more than enough to lead the team to plenty of wins and keep them near the top of the Super Bowl odds board.

Okay, okay, the Cardinals shocked the world and handled the Chargers in Week 1. Jacoby Brissett put up big numbers again, while the defense shockingly shut down an LA offense that was expected to explode under Mike McDaniel. As impressive as their last showing was, the Cardinals are still going to be underdogs until they prove they can stack performances week in and week out.

I’m not about to wave on my preseason evaluations after one week of action. I still think the Cardinals are lacking lots of talent, and the Seahawks with Mike MacDonald are a mismatch for Brissett and Mike LaFleur. Seattle is also more rested and had the chance to bring Lock up to speed as the starter instead of unexpectedly tossing him into the action mid-game.

Seahawks vs. Cardinals pick: Seahawks -4.5 (-115) at Fanatics

Commanders vs. Cowboys - Sept. 20, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Commanders +3.5 (-110), Cowboys -3.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Commanders +160, Cowboys -195

• Total: Over/under 50.5 (-110/-110)

What to make of the Commanders’ Week 1 performance? They did absolutely nothing for three quarters, but Jayden Daniels racked up 100 yards and two touchdowns to bring the team within a two-point attempt of tying the game in the final minute. The offensive line doesn’t look good, but going toe-to-toe with the Eagles will make most teams appear worse off than they are, especially with a rookie offensive coordinator.

The Cowboys’ defense was as bad as bad gets in Week 1, allowing the highest EPA/play in the entire league. CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens combined for only 72 yards, and the team couldn’t run the ball at all. America’s Team has the benefit of going back home, where it has found repeated success against the Commanders, but that was an ugly Week 1 performance it just produced. 

I’m extremely interested to see the Commanders’ defense go against the Cowboys’ offense, particularly because of their physical mismatches between Pickens, Lamb, Amik Robertson, and Mike Sainristil. Washington was close to holding Philly to about 10 points, but two plays where defenders stopped playing (for various reasons) resulted in two touchdowns. Daniels found his rhythm towards the end of the game, but can he maintain that on the road? I don’t know if Washington will win, but I think it can lose by a field goal or less, if nothing else.

Commanders vs. Cowboys pick: Commanders +3.5 (-110) at Fanatics

Dolphins vs. 49ers - Sept. 20, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Dolphins +13 (-110), 49ers -13 (-110)

• Moneyline: Dolphins +650, 49ers -1,000

• Total: Over/under 45.5 (-110/-110)

The Dolphins played better than I thought they would, and they still lost by 14 to the Raiders. Malik Willis threw for 220 yards and an interception, but the defense forced two interceptions off Kirk Cousins. This team is devoid of talent at most positions and is firmly looking to the future, while the world waits to figure out what type of player Willis is.

It’s nearly impossible to find any faults in the 49ers’ execution in their Week 1 opener against the Rams, during which Kyle Shanahan reminded the world why he is one of, if not the best play-caller in the sport. Brock Purdy continues to improve with time, and an old roster looked youthfully spry - as one would hope, given it was only Week 1. The long flight home from Australia will have been offset by extra rest.

The Dolphins look and probably will be awful, while the 49ers have a chance to compete, if they can keep their best players healthy. Laying a large number like this is never fun, but the Niners are at home after a long week of rest, and my confidence in the Dolphins is in the basement. I’ll close my eyes doing it, but I’ll back the Niners on the largest spread of the week.

Dolphins vs. 49ers pick: 49ers -13 (-110) at Fanatics

Colts vs. Chiefs - Sept. 20, 8:20 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Colts +6.5 (-110), Chiefs -6.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Colts +240, Chiefs -300

• Total: Over/under 48 (-110/-110)

Daniel Jones, coming off a torn Achilles, ran into a buzzsaw that is the Jesse Minter-led Ravens in Week 1, which limited him to 166 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. Jonathan Taylor ran the ball efficiently as always, but the defense had no answers for anything the Ravens threw at them. That’s deeply concerning, given the hiring of Lou Anarumo and the upgrades to the roster, namely Sauce Gardner.

The Chiefs looked physically imposing in their matchup with the Broncos on Monday Night Football in Week 1. Patrick Mahomes had three total touchdowns in his first action since he tore his ACL and LCL, but he’s been terrible throwing the deep ball for a couple of seasons, and he’s slowly losing his “invincibility” aura that defined him early on. The defense was well up for the challenge of the Broncos, but will get a more veteran-laden team, with Shane Steichen calling the offense.

I’m not ready to raise the bar on the Chiefs to -6.5, even if they are at home. Mahomes hasn’t truly been Mahomes for a couple of years now, and Steichen’s teams always seem to find their way to about .500 and be competitive against everyone. Mansoor Delane could miss the contest with a shoulder injury, and I doubt that Kenneth Walker III runs for 173 yards in only 23 carries again.

Colts vs. Chiefs pick: Colts +6.5 (-110) at Fanatics

Giants vs. Rams - Sept. 20, 8:15 P.M. ET 

Spread: Giants +7 (-105), Rams -7 (-115)

Moneyline: Giants +275, Rams -350

Total: Over/under 48.5 (-110/-110)

No offense was more efficient than the Giants’ in Week 1, as their EPA/play even outscored the Bears. Jaxson Dart looked ready for Year 2, and Malik Nabers’ return to the field was a welcome boost for the entire locker room. The team also did a phenomenal job of controlling the clock and limiting explosive plays on defense, although they committed far too many penalties (10 for 114 yards).

The Rams were throttled by the 49ers in Melbourne, Australia, for which they attempted to fly in and fly out within a 24-hour period. Matthew Stafford couldn’t get anything going, Myles Garrett was so off the pace that he opted for knee surgery, and the team looked completely lethargic. Luckily for them, they get about as long of a recovery period as a team can have without having a bye week before this matchup, which will take place in their home stadium.

As I’ve said numerous times already, Week 2 is a test of nerve and the ability to balance Week 1 overreactions with offseason evaluations and adapting to new data. The Giants had the perfect plan for a horrible Cowboys defense, but they are in for a much different challenge with the Rams. Sean McVay and the offensive talent are also too great to keep quiet for a long time, and they’re ripe for an offensive explosion.

Giants vs. Rams pick: Rams -7 (-115) at Fanatics

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