The stage is now set for the Stanley Cup Finals as the Florida Panthers will look to redeem themselves against Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers. The Panthers spent a majority of the season as the favorite to win Lord Stanley, now looking to finish the job after coming up short in last year's finals and win their first championship since their inception. As for the Oilers, they are now in a position to win their first Stanley Cup since 1990 and break the Canadien Curse by winning the country’s first championship since 1993.
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While oddsmakers expected the Florida Panthers to pick up where they left off by listing them as the favorite to win the Stanley Cup for a majority of the season, the Edmonton Oilers come in as a pleasant surprise. The Oilers found themselves as an underdog for a majority of the playoffs, relying on the brilliant play of their offense to help mask their defensive inefficiencies and win the Western Conference Finals.
While something is certainly needed to be said about the Oilers pulling it off, it’s tough to stomach the thought of them remaining competitive enough to win it all after looking at their game six advanced metrics against the Dallas Stars. Even in a 2-1 win, the Oilers were vastly outplayed for a majority of the contest in terms of Expected Goals. The Stars offense created relentless pressure, finishing the contest with an Expected Goals result of 3.20 to the Oilers 1.16.
An absolute heartbreaker for Stars fans, yet potentially fantastic for us bettors as it creates value ahead of their game one matchup. The Oilers title hopes continue to look bleak as they face off against a Panthers squad who boasts advantages in nearly every facet of the ice. This has led to a wager on the Panthers series moneyline as you can read in our Stanley Cup Odds Breakdown.
As for game one, expect the Panthers to flex their advantages as they make a statement in the first game of their series. They rank better than the Oilers in 5-on-5 situations since the start of the playoffs, entering the contest with an Expected Goal mark of 2.62 and Expected Goals Against of 2.28 to the Oilers Expected Goals of 2.34 and Goals Against of 2.49. The Oilers are too reliant on the Power Play to boost their offensive production, now having to deal with fewer penalties called as we near the end of the playoffs.
With their advantages on offense, goals should come at a more consistent rate against the Oilers Stuart Skinner who is a far less daunting goaltender than the Rangers Igor Shesterkin. Stuart has had a playoffs performance to forget, once getting benched in their series against the Vancouver Canucks for his low level of play and now comes into the contest with a Save Percentage of .897 and a Goals Against per Game average of 2.50. Drink the juice and back the Panthers on the moneyline as they look to make a statement in game one of the Stanley Cup Finals.
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