You never want to see it end, but the Florida Panthers are now just one win away from completing the sweep in the Stanley Cup Finals. They dominated a majority of game three on Edmonton’s home ice, suffocating the Oilers offense in the first two periods while pulling away with a 4-1 lead. The Oilers did eventually turn it on late in the third, but it was too little too late as they ended up losing 4-3. It’s tough to win four in a row, but the Panthers have looked far better on both sides of the ice and are in a great position to finish the series out.
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Ever since Sergei Bobrovsky had to single handedly win the Panthers game one of the Stanley Cup Finals, the rest of the team has seemingly woken up and have played far better than the Oilers on both sides of the ice. Especially on defense, an area that they slept walked through in game one which forced Bobrovsky to give a herculean effort and shut out the Oilers offense after generating an Expected Goal of over 5.00.
Since then, Bobrovsky has received much needed help as the Panthers back end has started to look every bit of the deserving Stanley Cup favorite. Limiting opposing quality of Shots on Goal has been one of their strengths throughout the year, ranking top-5 in Expected Goals Against in all situations and top-2 during the course of the playoffs. They also reside in the top-5 when filtering it to just 5-on-5 situations.
With the Panthers defense rounding back into form, that spells doom for the top heavy Oilers offense as low quality Shots on Goal are negated against an elite talent in net like Bobrovsky. Sergei has played as one of the best goalies this entire season and has maintained his elite form during the course of the playoffs. Bobrovsky enters game four of the Stanley Cup Finals with a Save Percentage of .916 and a Goals Against per Game average of 2.07.
With the back end secured, it will be up to the Panthers offense to seal the deal and close out this series. They have looked every bit the part to accomplish just that since game two, beating out the Oilers in Expected Goals two games in a row by a comfortable margin. Like their defense, the Panthers offense have also ranked in the top half of the bracket since the start of the NHL Playoffs in Expected Goals For in all situations as well as 5-on-5 play.
Their offense will also continue to be in a position to score nearly every time they rifle off a Shot on Goal, whether it is high quality or not. After a hot stretch of play against the Dallas Stars, the Oilers goaltender Stuart Skinner has quickly fallen back down to reality. He clocked in an Goals Saved Above Expected of -1.22, marking his third negative result in a row during the Stanley Cup Finals. This is on par for what we have seen throughout the playoffs as he possesses a Save Percentage of .893 and a Goals Against per Game average of 2.59.
To make matters worse for the Oilers, the refs will not play towards their favor as penalties get called at a far slower rate the deeper we get into the finals. That has been a clear strength for Edmonton as they boast a power play unit that is light years better than the rest of the league, but are now neutralized with their limited exposure. Back the Panthers as they are in a great position to finish this out and complete the sweep.
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