Even though both teams reside near the bottom of their respective division standings, the matchup between the Detroit Red Wings and Pittsburgh Penguins may be one of the most exciting games on Wednesday’s slate. Especially if you are a Penguins fan as their offense will have the opportunity to light up the scoreboard as they face off against a Red Wings defense who ranks near dead last in Expected Goals Against in All Situations.
Later in the night, we turn our attention towards the red hot Carolina Hurricanes as they get the opportunity to build their case for being a viable contender for the Stanley Cup with a favorable matchup against the Utah Hockey Club. Utah’s offense has continued to regress since their hot start to the season, dropping down to as low as 23rd overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations. That bodes well for the Hurricanes as their level of defensive production has been sporadic the past few weeks of play.
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After ranking below league average in Expected Goals Against in All Situations last year, it was expected the Red Wings would spend the offseason bolstering their back line to help be a more well rounded unit. They instead opted in to adding more depth to their offense, resulting in an even lower mark in Expected Goals Against 14 games into their 2024-2025 campaign.
Even when getting a high level of production from their pair of goalies, the Red Wings are prone to high scoring affairs as their back line struggles with smothering opposing shot attempts. That plays into the Pittsburgh Penguins hands as their offense excels at generating high quality Shots on Goal, entering the contest ranked well above league average in Expected Goals For in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play. With Detroit struggling to give their goalies proper coverage, expect the Penguins offense to continue to thrive.
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Correlating this prop with the previously mentioned one, value in the Shots on Goal market shades towards the Penguins as the Red Wings defense struggles with smothering opposing shot attempts. Bryan Rust in the Penguins second line has excelled at pressuring opposing goalies this season, entering the contest averaging over three Shots on Goal per game. With Pittsburgh expected to generate prolonged offensive possessions, expect Rust to generate a higher amount of Shots on Goal to clear the over.
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Even though Carolina is two points back from the New Jersey Devils in the Metropolitan division standings, the Hurricanes are in a favorable position to pull away from the rest of the pack as they currently possess a higher point percentage. Heading into Wednesday, the Hurricanes have the opportunity to build on their momentum as they face off against the reeling Utah Hockey Club who continue to regress down the board in Expected Goals For after a hot start to their season.
Utah’s inability to generate high quality Shots on Goal bodes well for Carolina as their defense continues to rank just league average in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. With their back line in a position to give their goaltending the production they need to help maintain their high marks in average Goals Against per game, Carolina will have the opportunity to set a scoring pace too fast for Utah to keep up with as their own top ranked offense in Expected Goals For blitzes through the Hockey Club’s coverage.
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As for who will do the scoring to help the Hurricanes cover the puck line, Andrei Svechnikov has been their most consistent source of offensive production as he enters the contest averaging 0.46 Expected Goals and 3.43 Shots on Goal per game. With his center Sebastian Aho settling into more of a facilitating role, expect Svechnikov to continue to generate high quality scoring opportunities in front of Utah’s net.
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