Washington is listed as the heavy betting favorite to win the Metropolitan division title
The New York Rangers are six points back in the wildcard standings for the last wildcard spot
Carolina ranks top-5 in Expected Goals For and Expected Goals Against in All Situations
With less than 30 games remaining in the regular season, the Carolina Hurricanes are in desperate need of sparking a hot stretch of play to help chip away at the Washington Capitals lead for first. Fortunately for Carolina, their high level of play on both sides of the ice lessens the amount of variance in their contests which increases their chances of remaining in contention for the Metropolitan division title.
Negative regression is starting to loom large over the Capitals as their defense continues to trickle down the board in Expected Goals Against in All Situations.
The Washington Capitals have arguably been the biggest surprise of the season as they continue to rival the Winnipeg Jets for the Presidents’ Trophy after entering the year listed as a fringe playoff contender. Their front line has played a major role in their success as their offense ranks top-10 in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Their top line consistently generates high quality scoring opportunities on a nightly basis as Alexander Ovechkin and Tom Wilson both average over 0.40 Expected Goals per game.
While their offense has thrived, their back line has struggled to play at a competitive level as their defense has dropped down the board in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Their regression on defense brings in a higher amount of variance into their contests, hurting their chances of sustaining their high rates of points. With negative regression looming large, pass on the Capitals at their short odds to win the Metropolitan division title as the Hurricanes are in a great position to chip away at their lead.
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Since the start of the regular season, the Carolina Hurricanes front line have been one of the most dangerous units in the league as they continue to rank near the top of the board in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 3.56 Expected Goals per game. Even with only four players averaging more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game, that has not stopped their offense from generating high quality Shots on Goal at a consistent rate.
On the other side of the ice, the Hurricanes defense have also played at a very high level as they rank top-5 in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Their suffocating coverage has helped Pyotr Kochetkov wall off opposing Shots on Goal at a consistent rate as the Hurricanes starting goalie is averaging 2.48 Goals Against per game and a .903 Save Percentage. With a high level of production at all three areas of the ice, sprinkle a wager on the Hurricanes to win the Metropolitan division title.
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Since the calendar flipped to 2025, the New Jersey Devils have severely underwhelmed as they are 6-9 as of January 1st. Their recent struggles can be pointed towards their back line as their defense has fallen down the board in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Their lack of coverage in front of their net has hurt Jacob Markstrom’s chances of winning the Vezina Trophy as the gap between him and Connor Hellebuyck in average Goals Against per game and in Save Percentage continues to grow.
While their defense has regressed, their front line has been able to sustain their high marks on offense as they still lead the league in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 3.65 Expected Goals per game. Their versatility gives them the ability to pressure the opposing net for the duration of their contests as six players average more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game. Still, until their defense rounds back into form, then pass on the Devils at their inflated odds to win the division.
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Not only are the New York Rangers on the brink of elimination for the Metropolitan division title, but their chances of making the playoffs have also steadily declined. As of writing, the Rangers are six points back from the Tampa Bay Lighting in the Eastern Conference wildcard standings for the last wildcard spot in the playoffs. Securing one of the two wildcard spots is the Rangers best path for making the playoffs as they are currently 12 points back from the New Jersey Devils for the third position in the division standings.
Their poor performance this season can be pointed towards their back line as their defense ranks 29th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 3.39 Expected Goals Against per game. Even with Igor Shesterkin in net, the star goalie has not been able to mask their struggles on defense as he ranks in the bottom half of the board in average Goals Against per game. With no support from their back line, pass on the Rangers at their astronomically high odds to win the division title.
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The New York Rangers won the Metropolitan division in 2023-2024, claiming their second division title since its inception in 2013.
Since the NHL’s realignment in 2013, only four teams have managed to win the Metropolitan division title. The Washington Capitals are the current leaders with five division titles, followed behind the Carolina Hurricanes and New York Rangers who are tied at two apiece. The Pittsburgh Penguins have also managed to win the division, winning the Metropolitan in 2014. Oddsmakers believe a new name may join them this year as the New Jersey Devils are the current betting favorites to win this year’s division title.
Season | Team |
---|---|
2023-2024 | New York Rangers |
2022-2023 | Carolina Hurricanes |
2021-2022 | Carolina Hurricanes |
2020-2021 | Washington Capitals |
2019-2020 | Washington Capitals |
When making a wager on the Metropolitan division winner market, it’s important to create an account with as many online sportsbooks as you can. This allows you to line shop the market as odds can vary between each book. When betting on the Rangers to win the Metropolitan division, their odds can be found as high as +30000 at Caesars and as low as +27500 at FanDuel. That is a difference of $2,500 in profit for a $100 bettor.
Another benefit of acquiring multiple sportsbooks is that you can collect multiple signup bonuses to help boost your bankroll. FanDuel Sportsbook for example is giving new users $200 in bonus bets after creating an account and winning your first wager of at least $5.
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Before making any type of wager, it’s vital to understand how listed odds work. Should you bet on the Rangers to win the Metropolitan division at their current odds of +30000, then a $100 wager would profit you $30,000 if they win the division. If you wait to see if they get off to a sizable lead and are listed with a minus sign in front of their odds (ex: -130), then you would need to wager $130 to profit $100.
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