Even with the return of Calder Memorial Trophy contender Macklin Celebrini, San Jose still struggles to play at a competitive level on both sides of the ice as the Sharks currently rank near dead last in both Expected Goals For and Expected Goals Against in All Situations. That bodes well for the Dallas Stars as they are currently in the midst of a hot stretch of play while simultaneously trying to climb up the Central division standings.
Before that matchup takes place, we turn our attention towards the Toronto Maple Leafs as they get the opportunity to skate circles around the regressing Vegas Golden Knights defense. After residing in the top half of the board in Expected Goals Against, the Golden Knights back line have dipped down to below league average while opposing offenses have generated a high amount of Shots on Goal towards their net.
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While Macklin Celebrini has managed to pick up where he left off since making his return from injury, his individual production has yet to carry over to the rest of the team as the San Jose Sharks rank near dead last in both Expected Goals For and Expected Goals Against in All Situations. The Sharks lack of production has resulted in a 6-10-4 start to their season, now having to face off against the Dallas Stars who are in the midst of a hot stretch of play.
With the Stars back line finally giving their offense the production they need to be a well rounded unit, Dallas is in a position to build up a sizable lead while their defense neutralizes the Sharks offense. Especially with their pair of goalies continuing to play at a high level as Vezina Trophy contender Jake Oettinger and Casey DeSmith both rank top-10 in Goals Against per game while possessing a combined Save Percentage of .916.
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Correlating this prop with the previously mentioned one, the Stars offense should have no issue with maintaining their above league average mark in Expected Goals For as they get the opportunity to generate high quality Shots on Goal at a more consistent rate. No matter who gets the starting nod in net for San Jose, both Vitek Vanecek and Mackenzie Blackwood will struggle to wall off the Stars onslaught as the Sharks back line concedes high quality shooting lanes for opposing offenses to exploit.
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Even with preseason Hart Memorial Trophy contender Auston Matthews out with an injury, the Toronto Maple Leafs have had no issue with maintaining their top-10 mark in Expected Goals For in All Situations as their offense averages 3.22 Expected Goals per game. William Nylander and John Tavares have elevated their level of play during Matthews absence, leading the team in Expected Goals and Shots on Goal per game.
Heading into Wednesday, the star duo will have the opportunity to sustain their high level of play as they face off against a Vegas Golden Knights defense who ranks 24th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and 31st in 5-on-5 Play. Their lack of production from their goalies leaves them prone to high scoring affairs when against productive offenses as both Ilya Samsonov and Adin Hill are averaging over three Goals Against per game while generating a Save Percentage lower than .900.
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Speaking of John Tavares, he is worth a wager to score a goal at his current listed odds as he should receive an uptick in Shots on Goal while against a Golden Knights back line who struggles to smother opposing shot attempts. Especially with his right wing Mitch Marner settling into more of a pure facilitating role, feeding off his passing ability while exploiting the gaps in the Golden Knights coverage.
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