On paper, the Olympic women's basketball semifinal game between France and Belgium could be one of the best games of the tournament. Fans and bettors will find out Friday when the game gets underway at 3 p.m. ET.
France has the better record at 3-1, but Belgium (2-2) has come on strong since losing their first two games. The winner will move on to the gold medal game with a chance to make history.
The Olympics got off to an excellent start for France with solid wins over Canada (75-54) and Nigeria (75-54). They looked great on both ends of the court, but then they got a wake-up call in their final group play game, a loss to Australia 79-72.
Then they played their best game of the tournament in an 84-71 victory over Germany.
Belgium's path to the semifinal game was decidedly different. After losing their first two games, it looked like they were bound for an early exit. But with a win over Japan and an 85-67 win over a strong Serbia team, they could be peaking at the right time.
Here's the betting line for France vs. Belgium. The following odds are sourced from BetMGM. Use our code WSNSPORTS when signing up to get up to $1500 in bonus bets*.
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Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
France | -4.5 (-120) | -210 | O 144.5 (-105) |
Belgium | +4.5 (-105) | +165 | U 144.5 (-115) |
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This game will be the seventh in the all-time series between France and Belgium. Each team has won three times, with Belgium winning the last one, 67-63, at the WEBC. This game will be the first time they have met in an Olympic competition.
The key for France in this game is simple—stop Emma Meesseman. She is the leading scorer at the Games and practically a lock for at least 20 points. Since France likes to dictate the pace of the game, they can't let Meesseman find her shot too early in the game.
If she can score 20+ points, there is a solid chance France will lose this game. But if she scores 30 like she did against Japan...
But the defense will need to do more than slow down Meesseman. If they focus too much on her, Belgium's sharpshooters will start getting open looks and knocking down three-pointers.
They'll also need to keep Belgium from heating up from three-point range. After making just five in the losses to Germany and the U.S., they've made 17 of 40 attempts in their last two games (9 vs. Japan and 8 vs. Spain).
Belgium will, of course, do whatever they can to get Emma Meesseman on track early and hitting buckets. In doing so, they can force France to focus more on slowing her down, leaving Belgium's perimeter shooters with open looks at three-pointers.
At the same time, if they can hit a few early threes, they may force France to loosen up on defense (which could help Meesseman get on track).
France will focus on Meesseman for obvious reasons, but doing so will not be enough to slow down the second-best offense (76.8 ppg) in the Games. Yes, she is the key to Belgium's success, but several players have made an impact on Belgium's wins.
Three players scored in double figures, along with Meesseman, in the win over Japan, including Elise Ramette, who hit four of seven three-point attempts. Against Spain, Kyra Linskens scored 19 points and pulled down eight boards. Julie Vanloo hit 71% of her shots and three of five three-pointers.
Ramette hit both three-point attempts in her limited playing time vs. Spain.
My Pick: Belgium ML (+165) at BetMGM
From a statistical perspective, these teams are a ridiculously close match, with comparable numbers in almost every category. So, the difference in this game may come down to who can make the clutch play or hit the clutch shot when their team needs it most.
France fans will point to Gabby Williams, and Belgium fans will point to Emma Meesseman. Both are tremendous players and assets to their teams. But we trust Meesseman to make plays down the stretch more than Williams.
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OVER 29.5 Points at +320 via BetMGM
Prior to her 19-point game against Spain, Meesseman had scored 20+ points in seven consecutive Olympic games. She's the tournament's leading scorer with 24.5 ppg. However, only one player scored 20+ points against France (Nyara Sabally scored 20 points in the quarterfinal).
With how France has played on defense, it is unlikely she'll score 29.5+ points. However, France has yet to face a scoring threat as dynamic as she is. Because of that and how well Belgium and Meesseman have played in their last two games, we are leaning towards the OVER (and maybe using a bonus bet on the OVER 29.5).
On offense, France has been one of the more efficient teams in the Games, choosing not to rely on a primary scoring threat. While this may help win games, it doesn't help anyone run up big statistical numbers. With an average of 14 ppg, Williams is the leading scorer for France.
However, with a trip to the gold medal game on the line, will she step up her game, or will someone else? The only game Williams led the team in scoring was the loss to Australia (15). France does a great job of getting everyone involved in scoring.
Because of that and how well Belgium is playing, we are taking the UNDER.
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Location: Bercy Arena in Paris, France
Game Time & Date: 3 p.m. E.T. on Friday, August 9
Coverage: Peacock/ NBCOlympics.com
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