UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 - Odds, Predictions & Picks

• Reigning Bantamweight Champion Merab Dvalishvili and Petr Yan battle it out in the main event, a hotly anticipated rematch of their previous encounter in March 2023

• Alexandre Pantoja steps into the octagon with Joshua Van to defend his Flyweight title

• Olympic star and former Flyweight and Bantamweight Champion Henry Cejudo puts rising star Payton Talbott to the test

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 Odds

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UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 - Picks & Predictions

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan - Bantamweight Division

• Our pick: Merab Dvalishvili (-500) at FanDuel

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van - Flyweight Division

• Our pick: Alexandre Pantoja (-265) at FanDuel

Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira - Flyweight Division

• Our pick: Brandon Moreno (+104) at FanDuel

Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott - Bantamweight Division

• Our pick: Payton Talbott (-290) at FanDuel

Jan Blachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov - Light Heavyweight Division

• Our pick: Bogdan Guskov (+110) at FanDuel

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan - Bantamweight Division

Merab Dvalishvili has never lost a title fight, and we don’t expect him to start any time soon.

It’s been two and a half years since Dvalishvili last stepped into the cage with Petr Yan, which turned out to be an upset to remember. Dvalishvili landed 202 successful strikes, clocking in at over double Yan’s 87. Given his slight reach advantage and relentless fight style, we’re expecting a similar performance on Saturday.

Petr Yan’s technical approach has kept him firmly in control of fights against some of the division’s most intimidating fighters, including his last three fights against Marcus McGhee, Deiveson Figueiredo, and Song Yadong. Yan is arguably the cleanest kickboxer in the division, and his meticulous takedown defense will give Dvalishvili a run for his money. However, given Dvalishvili's improvements since March 2023 and staggering 14-win streak, we imagine he’ll be walking out with his hand held high.

Dvalishvili’s initial victory against Yan defied sportsbooks’ predictions. He continued defying the odds this year, defeating Umar Nurmagomedov in the first UFC upset of the calendar year.

In the first fight in this saga, Dvalishvili made UFC history by attempting a record-breaking 49 takedowns—so we expect him to pile on the pressure this weekend. If, like us, you think Dvalishvili will close out this year with a win, back him with -500 odds at FanDuel.

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Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van - Flyweight Division

Given their identical height and weight, it seems like 11 years might be the only thing separating Alexandre Pantoja and Joshua Van. Both won their fights at UFC 317 back in June, setting the stage for the title fight this Saturday.

Van is a new challenger for the flyweight title, which Pantoja has been successfully defending since July 2023. The fighters arrive in Vegas on the high of huge win streaks, and neither have lost a title fight to date.

Both contestants exert huge amounts of pressure upon their opponents and excel at aggressive and accurate striking. We’ve never seen Van fight someone with Pantoja’s grappling ability, which could easily disrupt his rhythm. We think this will give Pantoja the edge on Saturday, particularly considering Van’s tendency to avoid kicking compared to the rest of the division. 

This Saturday, we’re taking Pantoja. Find him trading at -265 at FanDuel today.

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Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira - Flyweight Division

Tatsuro Taira is rapidly gaining prominence in the flyweight division thanks to his meticulous grappling ability and submission maneuvers. Question is, will he be a match for the unyielding defense and creative combinations of Brandon Moreno?

Moreno has gone from strength to strength since taking on Sayif Saud as his head coach. The former two-time UFC flyweight champion has been sharing glimpses of his intense training regime leading up to this fight—this has put fans at ease, since Saturday will mark Moreno’s first three-round fight since he defeated Kai Kara-France in 2022.

While Taira’s only got one loss under his belt, he’s got no belts under his belt either. Not only has he never won (or competed in) a title fight, we’ve never seen Taira up against someone on Moreno’s level. 

The sportsbooks might not have faith in Brandon Moreno, but we do. If you’re with us, bet on Moreno at +104 at FanDuel.

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Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott - Bantamweight Division

With only one loss to his name, rising star Payton Talbott will be coming in hot this Saturday. Standing in his way is Henry Cejudo, who has told reporters he will be hanging up his gloves when he steps out of the cage.

It’s been an unpredictable year for Talbott, defying the odds in multiple recent fights. His loss to Raoni Barcelos in January was a major upset, as was his victory over Felipe Lima the following June.

Talbott has a 5.5 inch reach advantage and a 6 inch height advantage over Cejudo. This, in combination with his hugely improved takedown defense, could give him the edge over a fighter who’s checking out of his career.

We’ve got Payton Talbott leaving victorious at the bell. If you have too, bet on Talbott at -265 on FanDuel.

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Jan Blachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov - Light Heavyweight Division

The first fight on the card will see Jan Blachowicz and Bogdan Guskov step into the octagon.

Blachowicz is a more technical fighter, but he hasn’t seen a victory since May 2022. Considering Guskov’s extraordinarily high finish rate, including 13 first-round finishes, we’re not sure he’ll give Blachowicz the chance to win this one.

As long as he doesn’t give Blachowicz an opportunity to navigate his defensive vulnerabilities, we think Guskov will extend his current win streak this Saturday—even though it’ll be a tougher fight than he’s had in a while.

Despite being the underdog we’re backing Bogdan Guskov, currently trading at +110 on FanDuel.

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How to Watch UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2

• Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV

• When: December 6 2025

• Time: 7:00 PM PST (December 7 3:00 AM GMT)

• How: UFC Fight Pass, ESPN+, PPV